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Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by toomuchtodo on Friday April 10, 2020 @10:57AM (#22833654)
The CDC had a pandemic team, they were let go. California had a reserve of ventilators, which were liquidated due to “budget reasons”.

The problem isn’t risk experts; the problem is that government representatives elected have no domain expertise nor leadership fortitude to put domain experts into the driver’s seat when the situation dictates.

China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by rapind on Friday April 10, 2020 @11:17AM (#22833877)
There's a populist war on expertise. Arguably justified when fake expertise is available for hire. Think big tobacco paying for studies (expertise) to say smoking doesn't cause lung cancer. When this becomes rampant, eventually there's a public trust issue.
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by pm90 on Friday April 10, 2020 @12:11PM (#22834432)
Experts should not be expected to side either way on morality. Much like technology, expertise is neither good nor bad, it’s just what it is.

Furthermore, I seriously doubt that there is anything close to a “populist” war on expertise. The US public has had a somewhat adversarial relationship with Science throughout its history (possibly because College is not considered mandatory, but that’s me speculating). The lack of education and the unrelenting advertisement infrastructure around climate denial is probably what has painted scientists especially in a bad light.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by CydeWeys on Friday April 10, 2020 @07:58PM (#22838607)
> Furthermore, I seriously doubt that there is anything close to a “populist” war on expertise.

Um, what? Look no further than the manufactured controversy over climate science, or evolution.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by maxerickson on Friday April 10, 2020 @12:16PM (#22834472)
China spent 3-4 weeks covering up evidence of human to human transmission of the virus (Singapore started screening travelers Jan 3 due to a pneumonia cluster in Wuhan; China started acting Jan 22...).

That's not getting it right, it's a different type of shit show.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by bigfudge on Saturday April 11, 2020 @04:53AM (#22840516)
Something doesn’t stack up here. If China’s response is such a shit show why don’t they have widespread transmission around the country? The US and Europe have had more warning than Chinese regions, but have been far less effective at managing the disease.
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by maxerickson on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:28AM (#22841111)
Their reaction to the massive outbreak has been effective.

My point is that they reacted the second half of January, after trying to cover up the outbreak for weeks/months. If the local and regional officials had acted effectively in late December, there might not be a global pandemic.

[dead]
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by NopeNotToday on Friday April 10, 2020 @01:03PM (#22834949)
> Culpability lies with China for covering it up

Sure, China did some bad things and shares some blame. That said, we did figure out China was lying in January, but did nothing nothing for the next six weeks (besides an ineffective travel "ban"). We have some culpability as well.

[dead]
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by david_w on Friday April 10, 2020 @01:49PM (#22835418)
Just for the record, every single time I make a post even mildly criticizing China in any thread, it gets downvoted almost immediately.
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by dang on Friday April 10, 2020 @05:03PM (#22837340)
Most people who do that are posting nationalistic flamebait whether they mean to or not, and the majority of readers here do not want flamewars on the site.

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...

I'm afraid that your post upthread (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22834681) is an example. We don't need that sort of low-information, high-indignation arguing on inflammatory topics.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by david_w on Friday April 10, 2020 @10:16PM (#22839191)
OK let me get this straight, just so I understand.

It's flamebait to recite the material and relevant facts about the Chinese Communist Party / dictatorship including the fact that they murdered the doctors who were trying to warn them and investigate it, after which this same dicatorship lied to the world about the spread of the disease and permitted tens of thousands of people to leave Wuhan provence, carrying what they knew to was a highly infectious virus with them. And now thousands are dead.

That is nationalism and flamebait and not the mere recitation of known facts ?

Seriously just trying to get my mind around the standards we're held to here at HN. We are supposed to deny or massage reality if it makes psychopathologically murderous and murderously irresponsible regimes look, you know, bad?

If that's not what you're telling me, then please, explain. Cite just one sentence or phrase which I wrote you think misrepresents reality and constitutes "flamebait".

I'm here all week.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by dang on Friday April 10, 2020 @10:27PM (#22839231)
You're assuming that reciting facts can't be flamebait. Actually it easily can. Your reply here is even more in the flamewar style.

These comments are clearly fighting a political/national battle, and you can't do that and have curious conversation at the same time. Those are two different states of the nervous system. We want curious conversation here.

In case it feels like I'm saying this because I secretly support the other side: I'm really not. Comments in the flamewar style the other way get moderated just the same, when we see them.

When you're inclined to use labels like psychopathological murder or murderous irresponsibility, it's probably better to wait until your system shifts into a different frame. In case it feels like I'm picking on your personally: we all have our version of this, definitely including me.

Re facts: the thing to realize is that there are infinitely many facts. They don't select themselves; humans do that. Which facts you select, which stand out to you as important, is not itself a fact—it's a consequence of how you see the situation and which side you identify with. Those on the opposing side select other facts.

If you show up in a thread with a bag of stones to throw at the other side, it doesn't make it ok if the stones are facts. What matters is the stone-throwing: it destroys the shared connection that makes good conversation possible. Actually, it's worse if the weapons are facts. They make harder stones, and harder hearts too.

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by david_w on Friday April 10, 2020 @11:18PM (#22839419)
I find I just can't relate to what you're saying although I can tell you're perfectly sincere and what you say makes sense insofar as its coherent and on topic. I get your point, I just disagree. What you're citing as selective fact presentation is called presenting a coherent point of view, buttressed by facts. If the facts hurt, then that's information to the injured party and information they need to have.

To give an analogy, our court system is adverserial and most debating societies follow the similar rules. The reason for this is because the best arguments are just that- arguments. In a debating society both sides present their cases as strongly as they can and the audience (here readers) decide. Asking someone not to form accurate, relevant, and decisive facts into an argument because the facts themselves will inflame people is, let's just say very Europeanish. It's akin to bannning so called "hate speech", which is nothing but speech that pisses off the people it exposes in some way.

I can't support a platform that has hatespeech moderation built into it.

What is going on is that people who do do what you're saying I am doing, attacking with selectively edited facts which distort reality, are ruining your platform. They suck up mindwidth and attention and litter the place with n-nested, tit-for-tat, lastwordistic threads. They ruin the joint. Then it's not an engaging place to be anymore and the Good People leave. Just so you know I know what you're talking about.

It's your place, not mine and you can do as you see fit. I can't participate as a commenter, that's all. There's just zero chance I'll change my approach, so it's better that I just refrain, which I am happy to do.

Reddit got it right btw, and then it went full totalitarian and those two things aren't unrelated. When you let people develop their ideas fully, using all the means their intelligence and imaginations can muster, then complex issues become clear. When that clarity doesn't favor your preferred narrative, as it didn't favor the narratives of the handful of Reddit mods who run that place, then you're put in the position of hosting your own ideological destruction. Not many Sam Adamses are ever birthed in the first place and certainly not enough to keep Reddit stocked with moderators, so, of course, they shut dissenting subreddits down faster than a kissing booth at the Wuhan county fair.

I voluntarily retire my commenting privileges.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by briandear on Friday April 10, 2020 @11:11AM (#22833803)
> The CDC has a pandemic team, they were let go.

Can we please stop parroting that distortion of the facts?

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud...

> China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians.

You don't know anything about China's leadership. They're all politicians. Not a decision gets made without it being vetted ideologically -- ideology always comes first. And we should look at the timelines from China before saying they "got it right."[1]

[1] https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devas...

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by meow1032 on Friday April 10, 2020 @11:30AM (#22834031)
Your link suggests that the statement is true, but you probably already know that and are posting in a bad faith effort to mislead people.
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by kens on Friday April 10, 2020 @11:21AM (#22833905)
>> The CDC has a pandemic team, they were let go. >Can we please stop parroting that distortion of the facts?

I'm not a fan of fact-checker battles but Snopes says "Claim: The Trump administration fired the U.S. pandemic response team in 2018 to cut costs. True."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by meow1032 on Friday April 10, 2020 @11:34AM (#22834066)
There's no battle, both links say pretty much the same thing.
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by TMWNN on Friday April 10, 2020 @12:29PM (#22834618)
briandear is right and toomuchtodo is wrong. (He's even wrong in the way he was wrong.)

One would think reading only the Snopes article, or the Twitter thread (!) the piece is based on, that to save money (or because the Trump administration hates science, or something) the entire "US Pandemic Response Team" agency was eliminated and everyone in a large DC office building was fired.

Actually reading the contemporary NBC News https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/tom-bossert-t... and Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/0... articles the Snopes piece cites in the body, they seem to have been a handful of people in one team in the National Security Council (not CDC, contrary to what toomuchtodo claims) hierarchy, that the new National Security Advisor reassigned to related agencies, as part of a desire to have his own hierarchical structure. Ziemer resigned because he wanted to keep his team the way it was.

COVID19 was not a surprise; that is, it was known to exist in China some time before the first cases appeared in the US. It is not unreasonable for a government to assemble a team to respond to something like a pandemic as needed, as opposed to having people dedicated solely to the purpose and nothing else. And that's exactly what the US did, implementing the ban on non-American travelers who'd been to China in late January, among other things.

You may or may not agree with this. But please don't claim that this is somehow prima facie proof of the Trump administration's malfeasance/evilness.

PS - No, Trump did not "cut the CDC budget" either. https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

PPS - Trump was not acquitted in the Senate until February 5. Thought experiment: What do you think would have happened if he had implemented the only thing that would have 100% kept COVID19 out of the US, completely shut down all borders (including with Canada) before January 15, the day "patient zero" entered Seattle from Wuhan? (The WHO was still stating that person-to-person contact for COVID19 did not seem to be occurring.)

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by amylene on Friday April 10, 2020 @12:52PM (#22834839)
There are other options of actions he could have taken that wouldn’t have involved shutting borders. Over the years, as well as not making obviously false statements, starting in late January. Those falsities created a republican resistance to the necessary actions, making it some sort of misguided windmill tilt about freedom.

Further, the entire culture he created — don’t speak truth to power, or you will be fired - is also responsible for the late actions and poor preparedness of the administration.

Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by Damorian on Friday April 10, 2020 @01:10PM (#22835013)
I'm glad I'm not the only one who bothered reading these links. I can only assume earlier posters are blinded by partisanship. Anything even tangentially related to politics requires a good degree of skepticism in the face of bias that's evident throughout this entire thread.
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal by jshevek on Friday April 10, 2020 @05:31PM (#22837554)
Yes. Thank you so much for saying this. It seems like there is only a handful of people who are trying to keep the focus on the truth in the midst of this partisan battle of competing narratives.