I wrote a basic model in Awk for US and global "RoW" (ex-China) spread of COVID-19. Both sets of confirmed-case projections (for US see comments for the mathematically correct model) are tracking remarkably close. Lagging slightly below, but only just. (Deaths have trended higher than projection for RoW, lower for US, but the delta remains only a few days.)

https://joindiaspora.com/posts/73d4e930421d0138028e002590d8e...

Exponential growth boggles the mind.

Script source: https://pastebin.com/raw/j89ZUdVq