So we're all discussing this, and if you've read the report you already know more than most people, and we know that the truth is in the middle.
But what we should really think about as clever individuals is that whatever is going to happen this year, and however long the lockdowns are going to be: it has to happen in order.
> panic: sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behavior.
When fear runs wild and uncontrolled, it can paralyze us into inaction, or worse yet, motivate us unthinkingly towards action that may end more lives than even inaction would. Or to put it another way - panic is a great way to waste a bunch of perfectly good fear.
Fear should be properly harnessed, controlled, and guided through proper thinking and wisdom - then we can maximize our chances of it motivating us to take those extreme, life saving actions you alude to.
Stress - as caused by fear - can shorten your lifespan and reduce it's quality as well. When possible, one should guide ones fears towards reasonable risks you can do something about - where the costs might be worth it - and away from the irrational or unactionable - where they are not.
I suspect the governors of some rural states are likely to issue weaker social distancing orders, minimizing the economic impact but still benefiting from national economic relief legislation the same as states more severely effected.
There would certainly be a lawsuit claiming that it's unconstitutional. It might even win... eventually. You know, back when SCOTUS is in proper session, and it's all kinda moot.
We know for a fact there were some early suppression of the outbreak, so it wouldn't be too much to speculate that they're under-reporting new cases and/or over-reporting recoveries.
Even if so, there's the problem that totalitarian, high-control societies like China have tools to deal with these kinds of problems that other societies do not.. to put it lightly.
- HK, SG, KR, and JP have similar trends.
- No "patriotic virus" -- infecting Chinese only after leaving China.
- Limited spread / impacts outside Hubei.
- Lifting quarantine.
Testing numbers are all but certainly low, but given shitshows elsewhere (IT, US, PH, DE, ES, likely IN and others), due to logistics and limitations. Comprehensive population antibody testing should be interesting.
But what China's data can tell, is that there is a strategy out there to contain the virus, if implemented. And it takes about 2 months of total lockdown. It is probably the most effective containment in human history, but with a cost.
So the exact number of China's data isn't going to be meaningful to others, but the actions taken have implications and we should follow.
"Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their “shut down” and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this."