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Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by creato on Monday March 16, 2020 @08:04PM (#22599780)
In the minds of people opposed to controlling CO2 emissions, your comment here justifies all of their worst fears of CO2 emission regulation as a means of social control.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by miketery on Monday March 16, 2020 @08:29PM (#22600005)
Being a part of society implies a social contract and some social control, it’s not black and white. Right now environmental impacts are not priced into many of our products (e.g. meat) and services (e.g. travel).
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by creato on Monday March 16, 2020 @08:36PM (#22600091)
I agree. But tying the recovery from this pandemic to an attempt to regulate CO2 emission would be an absolutely atrocious way to accomplish either pandemic response or CO2 emissions response.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by pm90 on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:26AM (#22601661)
Disagree. Crises are the best time to make political change. You have the attention of the whole country; rally them into making changes that can affect longer term gains.

I feel somewhat strange writing that as someone who buys into the systems philosophy of "fix whats broken immediately, enhance it later". While that's true in computer systems, it doesn't seem uncommon in the realm of politics that periods of disasters are taken as opportunities to experiment with different ideas.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by kortilla on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @02:33AM (#22602329)
> You have the attention of the whole country; rally them into making changes that can affect longer term gains.

That’s not how politics works. You can’t abuse a crisis to ram something unrelated down the opposing party’s throat. You end up alienating everyone including the moderates.

This never works with even something as simple as a government shutdown over budget considerations.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by ianleeclark on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:41AM (#22602639)
> That’s not how politics works. You can’t abuse a crisis to ram something unrelated down the opposing party’s throat.

This is exactly how it works in practice in the US because the government is in terminal gridlock.

> You end up alienating everyone including the moderates.

The largest political party in the US is the non-voting party. Again, how it works in practice is that almost half of the population is already alienated.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by buzzkillington on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @04:29AM (#22602881)
Have you seen the patriot act?

Hell, it was written by the oppositions party current presidential front runner.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by i2amsam on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:07AM (#22602489)
Well, we did invade Iraq, so sometimes it works.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by techbio on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:22AM (#22602550)
Worked with contaminated vape toxicity and the Juul flavor ban.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by dannyw on Monday March 16, 2020 @09:54PM (#22600659)
The aviation sector currently accounts for about 2% of global emissions.

Is the ability to travel, including all the business, leisure, and cultural exchange benefits worth less than 2% of our carbon footprint?

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by mrpopo on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @06:19AM (#22603471)
Air transportation is a major contributor to CO2, if you limit the scope to the people who use it. It is estimated that about 80% of the world's adults have never taken a flight, and 94% of the world's adults have not taken a flight in over a year.

So, the real picture is that this 2.5% of global CO2 emissions are caused by as few as 6% of the population, who also are incidentally the richest and bear a high personal carbon footprint in other domains than transportation.

Also please remember that the aviation sector is growing, and therefore its global contribution to GHG emissions will grow as well in the future. Discounting the carbon footprint of the aviation sector based on today's numbers is a mistake.

If you do not want to impede on your ability to travel, you shouldn't object to it for the 94% of the population that want the same thing as you, and when it becomes available to them the aviation sector's emissions will increase 15-fold.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by hannob on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:09AM (#22603068)
As we all know the best way to do something about climate change is to mentally divide the economy into 50 small pieces and then declare each of them is so small that it's not worth doing anything about it.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by sixo on Monday March 16, 2020 @10:25PM (#22600885)
Is 20% of that worth 80% of the benefit?

When costs are not priced in the benefits are weighed against nothing.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by adrianN on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:13AM (#22603092)
The aviation sector only accounts for a small amount of global emissions because globally almost nobody can afford to fly. For people who can afford to fly, an international flight can easily double their carbon footprint for the year.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by fiblye on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:35AM (#22601713)
Everything is just a few percent here and there, and everybody shifts the blame saying we should be cutting XYZ instead of ABC.

Efforts should be made to reduce all sources of emissions.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by jariel on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:22AM (#22603131)
"Everything is just a few percent here and there, and everybody shifts the blame saying we should be cutting XYZ instead of ABC.."

Wow - no, totally not.

The value derived from some kinds of emissions and resulting costs for changing them is infinitely differentiable from others.

For example, changing our electricity grid over to a more renewable resource, piece by piece, will maybe be a little bit more expensive, but it won't be disruptive.

'Stopping all flights' because airplanes emit CO2 could be devastating to the world economy, in addition to a massive reduction in the quality of life of people everywhere.

The factory that produces medical drugs needs some kind of Co2 emissions - probably worth it.

The one producing plastic bouncy balls for pets - probably not.

'The Market' has a lot of asymmetries, but it also contains a lot of intelligence, which is why it's always reasonable to be skeptical of arbitrary, system-wide controls.

Using this crisis for a 'massive experiment in what to turn online next as the basis for CO2' is excessively totalitarian, because we wouldn't really know why, how, what we are doing, and the resulting social pain would be great.

If there were a rational, clean path forward and 'good timing' for the introduction of specific measures, then yes, use the opportunity. But I don't see any of that.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by tonyedgecombe on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:44AM (#22603257)
massive reduction in the quality of life of people everywhere

General messaures of wellbeing and life satisfaction in the West haven't shifted over the last forty years despite a massive increase in air travel.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by jariel on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @06:14AM (#22603440)
Those measures are fuzzy at best but besides the point.

That we are 'happier because we can travel, but sadder because we have Facebook' is another can of worms entirely.

But this 'no improvement in wellbeing' argument is mostly undermined by the fact that given the choice, almost 0 people chose to 'live like 50 years ago'. Everyone today can do that easily. They can go back to not having dishwashers, not wearing seatbelts, smoking a pack a day, black and white TV if they want to, but for some reason, they mostly chose modern convenience.

But the real issue is the fact that economic activity is diverse, and heavy-handed centralized attempts to intervene will have crazy consequences.

If there are 'obvious' ways to use a crises for 'obvious good' then sure, but I don't see any such thing.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by tonyedgecombe on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @11:46AM (#22606005)
We already have heavy handed centralized attempts to intervene, they are what has got us in this mess in the first place. It just happens that they came from big business.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by jariel on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @01:38PM (#22607627)
No, that's not at all true and not fair to say. There are no businesses that can dictate all of the terms of the market.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by lbeltrame on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @06:06AM (#22603390)
The point GP was trying to make, if I understood it correctly, is that large policy changes have social costs you need to factor in even if you're going to do them anyway.

If a government doesn't keep that in mind it may bite them back somehow (see the beginning - as opposed to the follow-up - of the "gilets jaunes" movement in France).

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by jariel on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @06:20AM (#22603478)
" is that large policy changes have social costs "

The 'large policy changes' will have completely varying consequences across the economic spectrum, for good and bad, which is the general problem with centralized planning.

So if the government 'shut down all co2 emitting factories' it might have small consequences here, and terrible consequences over there.

But if the government institutes a 'carbon tax' that makes your 'pet toys' and 'medicine' 10% more expensive, then given the inelasticity in demand and surpluses derived from medicine, people will continue to buy it at the same rate, and possibly buy fewer 'pet toys'. If travel rose by 20%, then maybe we'd see less leisure, fewer business trips, but the 'important trips' would still happen.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by tonyedgecombe on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:41AM (#22603233)
For the people who fly it's a much bigger portion of their impact as even in the US more than half of people don't fly in any one year.

When you consider that it makes it much harder to convince the average person to lower their emissions when they can see their boss jetting off to Bali on a whim.

Also that 2% figure is wrong in so many ways.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by gambiting on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @04:25AM (#22602860)
There has to be a middle ground though, and it's ridiculous that the environmental impact of flying isn't factored into the price. Let's say a £30 Ryanair flight can produce as much as half a tonne of CO2 per traveller - how is that ok?
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by scarejunba on Monday March 16, 2020 @10:03PM (#22600721)
We will know when we finally enable the carbon tax on everything. Just set a total cap per unit area and then set the tax per tonne so total emissions are near that. Then we'll see if it's actually worth more than 2% since we'll be paying.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by hawkice on Monday March 16, 2020 @11:59PM (#22601514)
To elucidate: there are a meaningful number of people - like people in West Virginia who feel Obama was pretty effective at using environmental regulation to essentially stop almost all domestic coal production (true) - that Obama wouldn't have hurt coal if it was found only in deep blue states. It is shockingly hard to hurt your political opponents livelihood and prove it was fair handed (which is almost certainly was) - at some point the politics of, anyone who hurts the field would by opposed by that field, take hold, and it feels like retribution, especially when they aren't given advance warning.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by cinquemb on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:12AM (#22601575)
> … implies a social contract and some social control

"Social contract arguments typically posit that individuals have consented, either explicitly or tacitly, to surrender some of their freedoms and submit to the authority (of the ruler, or to the decision of a majority) in exchange for protection of their remaining rights or maintenance of the social order"

And of those who refuse to consent, explicitly or tacitly and disagree with others definitions of "social order"? Do people expect them to just roll over without fighting?

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by guerrilla on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:22AM (#22601633)
Yeah, social contract theory is something form a time when there was actually somewhere else to go. Now every border meets a border of some other domain.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by cinquemb on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:56AM (#22601815)
Personally, I would rather fight for making the world a cleaner/healthier place to live without trying to sacrifice socioeconomic well being, especially of those at the margins of our societies who can barely make a living doing the most laborious and strenuous tasks.

Trying to take away/cut things people have come to expect and offer nothing of equivalent in return? Good luck with that.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by guerrilla on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @01:27AM (#22601990)
You must be responding to the wrong person.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by cinquemb on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @01:31AM (#22602014)
No, I was just continuing on my thoughts, not you in particular, but for everyone to see… ignore me at your own convenience :P
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Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by Goladus on Monday March 16, 2020 @10:03PM (#22600720)
Why not ask them about it? You might learn something.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by hannob on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:11AM (#22603077)
Honestly what should we learn from people who are opposed to scientific reality? The only thing we need to learn is how we make the opinions of those people irrelevant. (Which is a really hard problem, as decades of inaction about climate show.)
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by Goladus on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @04:23PM (#22609890)
Honestly what should we learn from people who are opposed to scientific reality?

The idea of using CO2 emissions control as a form of social control doesn't sound crazy at all to me. Without knowing anything else, I'd assume it was a valid concern at least worth discussing, and I'd assume that anyone unwilling to at discuss it reasonably is probably a malicious and dishonest person with selfish motives who should not be trusted.

Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by minikites on Monday March 16, 2020 @10:18PM (#22600832)
I bet I could learn a lot from someone who thinks the Earth was created 6000 years ago, but that's not a useful activity overall.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by Goladus on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @04:10PM (#22609730)
You're just proving my point. You clearly have not had a real discussion with anyone who disagrees with your presumptions about the relative importance of emissions control. Your opponent is not a real person, it's a conservative stereotype (about a completely unrelated topic, no less).
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by hermitdev on Monday March 16, 2020 @11:35PM (#22601376)
I think you left out the part where it was created 6000 years ago, and is flat. Those are the ones that really get me.
Re:Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction by degski on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:16AM (#22601593)
Discussing the dis-appearance of the dinosaurs (let's say some 6'000 years (minus 6 days) ago) could be a cool discussion. Another one is of course the return of that badly dressed hippie. For about 2'000 years, excuses have been/to be made up to explain why he didn't turn up yet, but it can be every day now, make sure to hail the lord. Anyway, if we could ever use a helping hand, then it would be now, but the bugger is not on Facebook it seems. Haile Selassie was a better bet, but alas, not enough likes [like this post won't get many, wdic].