Containment has worked in Wuhan. Containment is being attempted after-the-fact in Italy. Containment is possible, it's just a matter of how extreme gets. But even the most containment does not look the hundreds of thousands or millions dead that letting everyone be infected looks like.
I don't think anyone knows for sure what strategy is going to work best in the meantime, considering experts disagree and the world is conducting a massive A/B test...
A variety of the world's diseases are controlled by testing and surveillance, not by cures - TB, for example.
Most viruses aren't as infectious as this one is, comparison to TB or even previous SARS viruses doesn't work for that reason. You can track people down by them expressing symptoms, then test them, then isolate them and it works. That hasn't worked so far with this.
Except in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, or (more arguably) Japan. And South Korea, while they had a rougher early outbreak, seems to have gotten a lid on the disease now.
That's not really correct. Containment certainly can work. Whether it will or not is still an open question. Right now no western country has been able to match that. Italy, Spain, France and Germany are probably out of time to try. But the UK is still relatively early on its curve.
So, for that matter, might the UK "infect the herd" trick. The science isn't unsound, though it's not nearly certain. So the risk management is just crazy and I can't understand it either. But... it really might work.
And how long can they keep strict containment in force, and what happens when it lifted? You're speaking as if China or SK are now magically immune from a second wave as soon as they relax their restrictions.
In this case the science is flat out unsound: There are several coronaviruses known to infect humans. None are known to result in lasting immunity, and some are known to not result in lasting immunity. This is one of the challenges in making a vaccine.
Given the observed hospitalization rates, many millions in the UK will require hospitalization due to corona. At the moment, their hospitals could support merely thousands. We know from other cities that the mortality rate (particularly among younger people) is dramatically higher when adequate medical care is not available.
Under the UK's argument, the worst outcome of aggressive mitigation is that you are actually successful at it and achieve containment which just shifts the infection later in time at a high economic cost. Given the existing known infection rates in the UK that seems unlikely at that point, but even if it were to happen it would provide time to ready treatment facilities and allow for the discovery of more effective and/or scalable treatment techniques.
Fortunately, the UK has been backing off from its initial position and has now been recontextualizing their position as 'mitigate as much as possible'-- which is what pretty much all of the west is doing.
Time is vital.
Given the state of modern politics, this is a time for people to very carefully consider their opinions, because the unpopularity of Trump and Boris is going to potentially sway decisions irrationally. This includes professionals and key decision makers.
This is not a value judgement regarding any world leaders. It's just a call to be very aware of bias and spitefulness can cloud judgement even in the most rational among us.
The person is making a fair point, but cocking it up a bit.
The only thing which they should have done is delayed a decision on this. They are a few weeks behind other countries, and could have observed effectiveness of social distancing in arresting spread. If it worked, it could be copied (ina modified form) and if it failed, it would be much easier to sell to the public. Currently it’s a brave (but likely correct) position it would seem.
But then again, what do I know. While I’m a doctor, I’m No specialist so my opinion is of limited value, and experts seem to disagree with each other. This is what makes this so difficult, no one seems to know what is the best option this current data.