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Re:Minsky moment by drocer88 on Friday March 06, 2020 @01:23PM (#22505914)
Looks the coming recession the editors at HN have been front paging for the last few years might actually happen.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17392859

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20371314

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20654624

Re:Minsky moment by eanzenberg on Friday March 06, 2020 @02:13PM (#22506339)
If you predict a recession every year you will eventually be right
Re:Minsky moment by paulmd on Friday March 06, 2020 @02:43PM (#22506592)
And on the flip side - just because the bubble doesn't pop this year doesn't mean your assessment of the fundamentals is wrong. The market can stay irrational for a longer time than you can remain solvent.
Re:Minsky moment by nardi on Friday March 06, 2020 @04:24PM (#22507451)
Credit where credit is due:

"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."

-A. Gary Shilling

Re:Minsky moment by egdod on Friday March 06, 2020 @03:33PM (#22507060)
I’ve predicted twelve of the last three recessions!
Re:Minsky moment by smoyer on Friday March 06, 2020 @01:32PM (#22506005)
I remember in the late 80's when things actually seemed pretty good - but all through Reagan's presidency, the press had been lambasting "supply-side economics" (and even his VP called it "voo-doo" economics). I can't say with certainty that there wouldn't have been a recession during Bush's first term without all the negative publicity but it certainly became a factor in his unsuccessful bid for a second term.

The curious thing is that if you perform a pump-and-dump on one or more stocks you get in legal trouble. If you perform a pump (or more likely dump) on the economy as a whole, then you must be a journalist.

Re:Minsky moment by AnimalMuppet on Friday March 06, 2020 @01:44PM (#22506106)
No, the recession during Reagan's first term was because Volcker cranked up the interest rate to shut down inflation. It worked, but it hurt the economy in the short term.
Re:Minsky moment by throwawaybbb on Friday March 06, 2020 @06:40PM (#22508440)
Long term too. The bottom 50% of Americans lost all their wealth and went into debt to live since then.
Re:Minsky moment by AnimalMuppet on Saturday March 07, 2020 @01:36PM (#22513169)
14% inflation wasn't doing to bottom 50% any favors.
Re:Minsky moment by onlyrealcuzzo on Saturday March 07, 2020 @01:01AM (#22510060)
The bottom 50% has almost no wealth to begin with.
Re:Minsky moment by ceejayoz on Friday March 06, 2020 @03:09PM (#22506826)
We've got pretty good evidence they were correct to criticize supply-side economics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment

Re:Minsky moment by jdminhbg on Friday March 06, 2020 @04:03PM (#22507272)
I don't think "the editors" are to blame here, but point taken on predicting 6 out of the last 1 recessions.
Re:Minsky moment by H8crilA on Friday March 06, 2020 @10:00PM (#22509433)
Blame for what? They were very likely right (let's see how this unfolds, to be sure).
Re:Minsky moment by H8crilA on Friday March 06, 2020 @09:16PM (#22509270)
Uhm, the yield curve inverts well before a recession and with a variable look-ahead period, typically 6-18 months before, so it worked as prescribed.

All of those articles are actually spot on. If this indeed is a recession; we'll know a year from now because that's the typical delay in NBER's recession announcements.