Re:Minsky moment
by eanzenberg on Friday March 06, 2020 @02:13PM
(#22506339)
If you predict a recession every year you will eventually be right
And on the flip side - just because the bubble doesn't pop this year doesn't mean your assessment of the fundamentals is wrong. The market can stay irrational for a longer time than you can remain solvent.
Credit where credit is due:
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."
-A. Gary Shilling
I’ve predicted twelve of the last three recessions!
I remember in the late 80's when things actually seemed pretty good - but all through Reagan's presidency, the press had been lambasting "supply-side economics" (and even his VP called it "voo-doo" economics). I can't say with certainty that there wouldn't have been a recession during Bush's first term without all the negative publicity but it certainly became a factor in his unsuccessful bid for a second term.
The curious thing is that if you perform a pump-and-dump on one or more stocks you get in legal trouble. If you perform a pump (or more likely dump) on the economy as a whole, then you must be a journalist.
Re:Minsky moment
by AnimalMuppet on Friday March 06, 2020 @01:44PM
(#22506106)
No, the recession during Reagan's first term was because Volcker cranked up the interest rate to shut down inflation. It worked, but it hurt the economy in the short term.
Re:Minsky moment
by throwawaybbb on Friday March 06, 2020 @06:40PM
(#22508440)
Long term too. The bottom 50% of Americans lost all their wealth and went into debt to live since then.
Re:Minsky moment
by AnimalMuppet on Saturday March 07, 2020 @01:36PM
(#22513169)
14% inflation wasn't doing to bottom 50% any favors.
Re:Minsky moment
by onlyrealcuzzo on Saturday March 07, 2020 @01:01AM
(#22510060)
The bottom 50% has almost no wealth to begin with.
We've got pretty good evidence they were correct to criticize supply-side economics.
I don't think "the editors" are to blame here, but point taken on predicting 6 out of the last 1 recessions.
Blame for what? They were very likely right (let's see how this unfolds, to be sure).
Uhm, the yield curve inverts well before a recession and with a variable look-ahead period, typically 6-18 months before, so it worked as prescribed.
All of those articles are actually spot on. If this indeed is a recession; we'll know a year from now because that's the typical delay in NBER's recession announcements.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17392859
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20371314
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20654624