"If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit.
The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1].
The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread).
The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually in the US [2], and as much as I love prepping, this just does not fit the bill for the amount of FUD it has generated.
edit: comments are making me re-think my position. COVID is far worse mortality rate wise in 65+ patients vs flu.
1 - https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-ta...
This is NOT TRUE. I urge you to stop relying on the news and look at the literature that is being published in real time. I don't have time for a full response but 15% of cases require ICU care to survive. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. and the virus spreads 2-5x (R0 estimates from 3 up to 8 depending on source) more readily than SARS or MERS or the 1918 Spanish flu.
Now is the time to be alarmed. The media is behind, for understandable reasons, do not rely on them when in 2020 you have access to the same sources they do. The literature being publishes is almost universally grave. At this point anyone minimizing ncov by comparing it to regular flu is being irresponsible.
- SARS case fatality rate = 15% (WHO - 1)
- MERS case fatality rate = 34.4% (WHO - 2)
- COVID19 case fatality rate = 2.3% (WHO - 3^)
1- https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
2-https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/ MERS case fatality rate =
3 - https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
^ estimation efforts are ongoing and may change.
Now consider that COVID-19 is much more contagious than the flu and it has a significantly higher case fatality rate than the flu.
Furthermore, people can and do protect themselves against the flu with a vaccine. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. And still further, no one is immune because the disease is new to humans.
So yes, while covid-19 has a 98% survival rate, a widespread outbreak could kill hundreds of thousands of people.
China has been overwhelmed. They ran out of testing kits weeks ago. They have been turning people away from hospitals for months. Major infection areas have been under lockdown, where people are not allowed to leave their homes or drive, even for emergency trips to the hospital. Their official reported diagnosed cases are nowhere the true numbers. They've also punished doctors for reporting new cases. It's all a giant sham.
This pandemic is revealing just how incompetent global organizations and news media are.
Edit: I just read that the WHO also has some incentive to downplay the virus - $425 million in catastrophe bonds were issued that may default if the virus is officially labeled a pandemic...can't seem to find the actual default conditions but there's a clear conflict of interest here. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bon...
“ On the face of it, the class B bond should have incurred losses during the 2018 ebola crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the recent coronavirus from Wuhan, China, as both have resulted in deaths north of 250 people, the primary condition for a payout.”
“ But an important secondary condition states that there must be at least 20 deaths in a second country for the bond to release any funds, a requirement that has not been met by the coronavirus or the ebola outbreak.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-bank-has-an-insu...
If I understand correctly, even the effect of weather/heat on various strains of viruses is extremely difficult to predict because of how many other factors play a role (air-conditioning, for example).
This is an event which illuminates the folly of relying excessively on media and government. I think it's easy to forget that these organizations are managed and staffed by people just like you and me - worse in many cases, as the average person is not exactly sharing research papers with their grandma, so to speak.
Here's one of the conservative estimates for R0 straight out of China. There's another which estimates 6-8 but I'll leave that to you to look for.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122...
And this accomplishes what, exactly? Shortages of gloves and canned goods?
Being “alarmed” is not a positive choice, even if your worst-case projections of the future turn out to be true.
In all seriousness, I'm truly baffled what motivates you to stand out so strongly in your anti-hysteria hysteria. I mean, I'm the anxious type who just like to prepare for stuff just in case, especially if the cost is low, but you appear to go actively out of your way to spend energy on countering any degree of concern, and it's frustratingly difficult to understand the underlying motivation.
If they all go and stock up, what with the JIT-style of many supermarkets, I wouldn't be surprised to encounter shortages.
Even just to avoid the inconvenience of that, stocking up now, while the majority of the population is not too concerned, seems prudent and even beneficial to everyone else
Of course, from what I can tell, growth in mortality has been shrinking in percentage terms. [1]
But if judging based on the early stats, it was literally hundreds of times more deadly than a common flu. Approximately to 4% of people in their 60s who contracted it died. And 15% of those in their 80s who contracted it were killed. The annual flu is not nearly that bad.
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...
That seems pretty dramatic, the earlier article about the disease in China stated that some percentage of people that get infected require ICU attention to oxygenate their blood or they die (and it doesn't seem like it's limited only to old or at risk people).
That seems a lot worse than the seasonal flu?
With SARS and MERS we got lucky because they didn't end up spreading that widely even though the mortality rate was higher. I'm not convinced that's evidence that this won't be a problem.
An agent that killed very quickly e.g. Ebola is actually not a very good bioweapon. You want something with a long incubation period that is infectious before people are symptomatic.
Things that incubate in short order + kill hosts quickly "burn the epidemic out" before it can spread.
Ideally it also can survive outside of a host for some period of time as well.
1 - Demon in the Freezer by Richard Preston
WHO tainted its image by being too slow/cautious to react.
The ilness may have great survival rate, but nobody knows what percentage of survivors will have nasty long-term health condition. The virus can smoke your heart, or other organs. It is new, Chinese are falling like flies, that's why alarm is in place.
You say this as if 2% of people dying is somehow nothing. Think about everybody in your life that you care deeply about. Relatives, friends, mentors, etc. If this goes pandemic, at least one person in that category will likely die.
- if the health care system is overwhelmed and they can't get treatment for other life-threatening illnesses
- if there are medicine shortages (because a lot of medicines are made in China, and it has shut down a lot of its manufacturing)
- if people lack necessities like food as panic sets in people start hoarding
- if people start refusing to help each other out of fear they'll get infected
In addition, something like 20% of the people who do survive can suffer lung damage that can seriously impact their life.
This is not something to be complacent about. Prepare and take care.
WHO reports a 34% fatality rate for MERS, while at present it is around 2.4% for COVID-19 [2]. So it would be helpful if you provide sources when throwing down comments like this. I'll admit it's more contagious, as they state below, but again, most US cases are asymptomatic.
1 - https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/
2 - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
This happened in China, hopefully current measures can prevent breakout infections.
I worry what will happen if the outbreak reaches densely populated areas in India.
"The bottom line is this virus kills people... it kills our elderly and vulnerable... but this is not always the case - young people do die of this disease even in industrialized countries.
People are looking at this saying that but in China they don't have this, they don't have that, etc. If I had COVID-19, I'd want to be treated in China.
We'd go into these hospitals, how many ventilators do you have? 50-60. A scale we aren't used to seeing. How many ECMO systems do you have? 5. We don't have that in Europe.
When we look at how dangerous this disease is, we have to be careful looking at the China data. China know how to keep people alive from COVID - they are super committed to it and they are making a massive investment in it. That is not going to be the case everywhere in the world....
It is a serious disease and I worry that people are going to look at the China numbers and get a false sense of security."
[1] - https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9mxwn/for_tho...
Actually, to be honest, it would be helpful if everyone refrained from cherry picking information to support their current emotional state.
Please, please, please, let's rely on experts who specialize infectious diseases to do the communicating and go back to our code.
Thank you.
> However, it is important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html#risk-...
Where did you hear this? Why would these people even be tested, much less diagnosed, if they are not showing symptoms?
It's Because they were evacuated e.g. from Cruise ships with other symptomatic patients, and were quarantined + tested, it's a CDC standard protocol [2]. They even put one of them down the street from me as we speak [3]
1 - https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/15th-us-corona...
2 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/posttravel-eval...
3 - https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10751105-181/sonoma-count...
It's now an epidemic, not at pandemic level.
Also, the steps that authorities might take in response to that fear...
This is serious. You don't have to panic, but this is serious.
And If the WHO and the CDC are “misinformation”- so be it.
Don't bother with masks or anything, you probably won't be able to avoid infection anyway. Also I'm already convinced the panic & paranoia will cause way more disruption then the virus itself.
Evidence shows that if taken before exposure it reduces the risk of catching the cold, and if taken during the first 24 hours of symptoms it reduces the length and severity of the cold.
Some evidence suggests it works for the SARS Coronaviruses too (i.e. not just Rhinoviruses)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47794995_Zn_Inhibit...
Beware. Taking Zinc regularly, especially in the high doses necessary for the cold/flu resistance effect, is NOT a good idea. It leads copper deficiency and anemia.
Despite the rest of your post being overly alarmist this is a good recommendation. You should have extra staple food at all times. The cost is minimal, you can keep extra of foods you'd eat anyway, and the benefit in an unlikely supply chain disruption could be significant.
It would be a pretty monotonous diet but better than the alternative.
I drink bottled/filtered only due to negative side effects (for me personally, most don’t have any) of drinking chlorinated water, so simply increasing my input buffer is really straightforward.
This isn't just about personal protection - the whole community and nation can expect better outcomes of we stagger preparations, lessening the chance and impact of everyone running to the store at the same time. There is no question now that this is an unprecedented event, now is the time to prepare to mitigate risk.