> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price

iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time).

"Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotcakes. In the case of Flash and MMS, the whole mobile internet changed to suit the iPhone. In the case of apps, Steve Jobs finally relented, leading to the single biggest software marketplace in the world.

> "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?"

That reaction really only came from makers of competing phones. (RIM execs famously refused to believe the battery life was possible, Balmer threw very unconvincing dismissals.)

Everyone else was standing in line to buy one.

I think this is hindsight talking.

I remember thinking (and hearing):

'Way too expensive'

'I want a tactile keyboard'

'Nice, but I don't need one'

and so on.

The only commonwealthidespread complaint was about the lack of 3G and copy/paste.

However, the overwhelming response to the iPhone was extremely positive. Even from non Apple sources.

RIM didn’t think the iPhone was possible when it was first released. Google instantly changed the direction of their Android project when the iPhone was released.

> The only commonwealthidespread complaint

Maybe also complaints about bad autocompletion?

"Too expensive" is a perfectly fine thing to think about a product like that, and is very far away from thinking nobody wants it.

Qwerty keyboards were always a niche, and "nice, but I don't need one" is reasonably classified as an underestimate of the product but it's still approval.

I still want a slide out keyboard like my Nokia N900 had... and if you don't think $1000 is overpriced for an I-Phone, you probably haven't tried a $300 phone that has very similar capabilities...

It really wasn't that popular initially, at least nowhere near what it is today. There were only 1.5 million sales in 2007, and about 12 million in 2008. For comparison, there were over 210 million sold in 2018.

Actually, the first one wasn't in that much demand, because it had laughably slow processor and cell standard support even by 2007 standards (no UMTS, which was already available on cell networks back then, just not with an iPhone). Apple fanboys stood in line for it and since Apple wasn't able to even produce enough for them, it seemed like "everyone wanted one".

The iPhone 3G changed this fundamentally; you didn't have to be a die-hard Apple fanboy to justify wanting one of those, because it was the only phone on the market that actually gave you sufficiently usable mobile access to "the real Internet".

I certainly didn't stand in line. The iPhone seemed primitive and lacking to me at the time. And I wasn't alone in spending lots of money on alternative phones.

The iPhone was also ridiculously profitable.

The original iPhone sold for $600 and a 2 year AT&T contract.

The iPhone had a ton of pricing headway to make itself more attractive.

Tesla is almost the exact opposite.

Now, this isn’t an argument against Tesla or its stock price (that’s a different argument altogether). This is an argument against the idea That Tesla and the iPhone are in any way comparable.

The iPhone hit in a market where competitors have mutually agreed to hide away from regulator attention as long as possible.

That is most certainly not the state of the car industry.

And you can see how "old industry" will play with old wet cell batteries and newer batteries in data center spaces (newer batteries are considerably safer in reality with each cell monitored, with the battery wall automatically removing problematic cells, and requiring less than a fifth of the space of wet cells). However wet cell manufacturers have been really good at manipulating and adding regulations that make newer batteries untenable to have since regulations are purposely broad enough that each inspector you bring in will cited the same regulation as having a different meaning.

haven't we seen the auto industry hiding from environmental regulations like Volkswagen and emissions standards?

On top of that: no (physical) keyboard, no GPS, no 3G support.

They were almost the textbook definition of a disruptive product (worse on traditional metrics by which products compete, but better on some key factors that have customer value)...

Which phone was able to run Flash at that time?

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options.

A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

> Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options

The building that I live in is going to run out of physical space for electric meters long before it has issues with electrical capacity. My neighbor opted to forgo having a charger for his Model 3 and instead put one into the garage of his weekend home (he doesn't drive much during the week so he'll be ok).

Given existing equipment on the market now, our building can support maybe 10-15% electric cars. If you are designing a new building, there is no limitation. Our condo board has been searching for a solution and has found some things that are "promising", but nothing that will solve our problem before we run out of space. Again, this is a physical space limitation for the meters, not electrical capacity. And it's a problem where the solution will have to interface with the existing built environment and the existing electrical grid and the existing safety codes, etc. If all you pay attention to are single family homes with garages, you'll never know this is an issue until sales take a nosedive in big cities.

Isn't the solution to put smart meters that can track usage on a common meter and bill the condo owners for their share of the electrical bill?

Do you have an example of a purchasable product that works with existing electrical systems?

All the charger networks have solved this. Just choose a network (Chargepoint, Semaconnect, etc.), put in a 2- or 4-connection charger, and each EV owner pays for each charge with an RFID card or their phone. There are also online services for scheduling and paying for use of private (not-smart) chargers (evmatch.com), and others that specialize in your exact problem (multiple chargers in shared dwellings): evercharge.net

In a condo building, each parking space is deeded to the owner as a limited common element for the exclusive use of the owner. The charger in the parking space is owned by the owner of the parking space and the electrical connection runs to a utility closet that the electrical utility controls.

In a new building, you just design the electrical system so this is a non-issue. In an existing building, it's not so simple. Any state that has a lot of condos is going to have 100+ years of condominium laws that govern the ownership and usage of space in a condominium. You can't force someone to share their space and you can't authorize someone to enter someone else's space.

Condo associations that want to solve this can. It isn't a technical problem and it won't slow down EV adoption very much. It is kind of like adding satellite TV and plenty of HOAs have figured that one out despite not having it wired into the building. Yes, specific organizations will be slower than others, but as the demand ramps up more and more people will want this solved in their own HOA and they'll start getting it done like dominoes.

People on our condo board have owned Teslas for years. We are a building that is out in front of it. Coax cable doesn't carry 240V power. This isn't something you can hand-wave away.

The why isn't the board voting for an easement for overhead distribution and a single junction off the service connect to power the charger network?

Why not just put the meter at the charging station?

At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized, which had been the case for a long time with a lot of EV charging spots over here, although only by accident - at least about 50% of the comparable gas price per mileage. Can be even more than 100% in some corner cases, but I think 50% is a good approximation, assuming you charge mostly at home.

I drive a hybrid and charge at home. My stats on electricity costs, after almost two years, is that my electric kilometers cost me 1/3 of my gasoline kilometers. For reference, it's in Portugal where electricity cost 0.2€/kWh and gasoline 1.5-1.6€/L.

And there's the local difference that makes or breaks this kind of calculation. For Germany these numbers currently are more like 0.3€/kWh and 1.2-1.3€/l.

Portugal has the fourth most expensive electricity in the EU. You are unfortunately above our level, because of taxation (Germany holds the top spot). Throughout the EU, the calculation is better for EVs. The median is at about 15¢/kWh.

> At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized...

In Germany, 1 kWh costs over 30 cents. As far as I know, that's one of the highest rates in "Western" countries.

If electric cars make sense in Germany, then they can succeed pretty much anywhere.

Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing#Global_com... lists Germany price/kWh at 0.35 USD, making it indeed the most expensive Western country at least by quick eyeballing.

So perplexed, why did this get downvoted? Everything is factually correct.

I love the implicit assumption that electric vehicle adoption will run rampant, but at the same time, electricity costs will remain "negligible" and charging/pricing won't adapt to the increased demand...

Higher costs for electricity would be a great problem to have because solar is already competitive at current prices. Costs would have to go up 5x at least to make even a bad EV in an expensive kW/h locale cost as much as a gasoline car. At that rate almost anybody could make money deploying solar generation and storage in a remote locale, and of course for those with the luxury of having a roof.

Many people's car payment is $0.

Then the car is a trade-in downpayment. Sure, if you can't afford a $20,000 car then there are very few Tesla options for you.

I can afford any production car. I choose not to allocate money that way and I’m far from unique there.

We drive 10K miles per year across two drivers. My daily electric (LEAF) costs me $0.05/mi for energy (and I love it). My wife’s SUV costs $0.10/mi for gas and a few pennies for oil (and she loves it). She pays $600/year max for fuel. That covers about a month of Tesla car payment.

Ah, it doesn't work out in your case because you've already made the transition to electric. We went from two gas guzzlers (one of them was a 40mpg diesel, the other a fairly typical 25mpg) to one model 3 and the financing equation easily works in our case. Obviously not everyone is going to give up a car, and the math doesn't work for everyone. But more people should be doing the math rather than just looking at the sticker price of the teslas.

Going from $0.11/mi to $0.05/mi ($0.20/kWh in MA) even at 20K miles per year saves $100/mo. That’s not economically compelling. Driving 1/4 of that (per driver) is even less compelling. I bought an electric because I wanted one (and there was $10K in government cheese in the trunk).

$100/mo is pretty compelling to lots of people. Why throw money away? My locale is even better because I pay $0.08/kwH (Portland, Oregon). We like to ski; every time we drive up the mountain was $50 in gas for our Ford Escape. Now it's roughly $5. That alone represents $180 a month. In the summer we have different hobbies that are equally travel intensive so it's a year-round win.

Why spend $50K or more to save $100 or even $180 a month for maybe 8 years and get $10-20K back at the end? That’s just not compelling on an RoI basis.

There are many reasons to like a Tesla. It’s almost surely not the cheapest way to motor though. A $5K Honda and investing the difference will be wildly cheaper during the ownership period (including no need to carry collision/comprehensive insurance!) and have a much higher residual value (in the investment account). To me, that should be more compelling to many people.

What's the insurance like on a model 3 compared to a similar gas sedan?

> But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Depending on where you live, there are sometimes EV charging spots in apartments/condos. To me, this is pretty clearly a supply/demand issue.

Today, there aren't enough EV drivers for condos to care, but as the percentage of people who own EVs increases, more places will install chargers. It's the exact same process that resulted in gas stations being everywhere.

And you'll start to see free charging evaporate (or appear in the form of rising rent/HOA fees). Condos can afford to "subsidize" a couple of free spots for a complex, but they're not going to be saying "free electric charging for hundreds of vehicles".

You'll probably end up paying to have one installed at a dedicated parking spot and get the power charged to you. It's going to be the equivalent of renting a spot in a carport instead of a standard uncovered parking. Most of the Apartments I've rented have had covered or garage parking available, I've never paid the extra for it, but it's there.

Condo associations in my city have been permissive/proactive about this issue, wiring a few parking spots near the building with 220v, and assessing the owner with the cost. Our city has also installed charging stations at public buildings to encourage EV adoption.

Some startup is going to create a condo/apartment charging network by sharing profits with landlords.

Tesla is already on that sort of - there is a contact page about hosting superchargers but I am uncertain of the precise details.

It's really unknown at that time. If (IF) a few changes in techniques, materials and manufacturing processes align, with the climate friendly mentality, it's far from impossible that ICE will vanish fast and be replaced by EVs.

Of course these are all IFs:

- battery chemistry: change in electrolyte, if not solid state

- modular wiring (way less expensive cable to make and install)

These two are worked on as of now, if they pan out, that's another drop in price and increase in usability.

Taking in account that the amount of money flowing into EVs has most probably increase by an order of magnitude (German brands, etc, all are investing). This may very well cause an overall drop in prices in all parts. Commoditization..

Time will tell

You are right about infrastructure, but I'm not convinced it's going to be a deal breaker for many people living in condos.

Even a level 1 charger (1.4kW) can add >50 miles worth of charge overnight (12h) and people living in condos tend to have a shorter commute.

And it's going to get better - for example Ontario mandates 20% parking spaces have charger installed and remaining 80% be ready to have one installed since 2018. IIRC the requirement is 200A per parking spot.

Steve Ballmer points out iphone's "disadvantages": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs

The bet is that the advantages outweigh the negatives.

I don't understand your air quotes.

Being hundreds of dollars more expensive is objectively a disadvantage.

"not a very good email machine" sounds right, in comparison to something like a blackberry.

And that's it, he only listed those two things. He didn't try to make up fake reasons.

Something being better does not mean the disadvantages somehow don't exist.

Sorry, I should have been clearer. I did not mean to imply that they were fake reasons but they seem way less material in hindsight.

Depending on the version of the iPhone, they had disadvantages such as not being able to send MMS.

https://www.imore.com/1st-generation-iphone-owners-mms

it's certainly a little inconvenient but people are already buying evs who live in condos in Seattle and San Francisco and probably other places. Don't forget apartments, they have the same issue

The higher end apartment buildings are getting chargers here in the Seattle area, while the lower ones are still slow on the uptake. It is just a matter of time now, anyways.