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Re:My years working on black programs by gnat on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @10:00PM (#21580743)
"My supervisor observed that I was anxious to learn new things. He assigned me to the Discoverer project to develop system schematics, interconnection diagrams, and wire harness definition. I was working for the Electrical Systems engineer. His was a very responsible and highly visible position. And like most engineers working in this new field, he was in his early 20’s, just three years older than me. There were senior engineers in management positions, but there were no senior spacecraft engineers. Everyone was learning on the job."

Parallels to Silicon Valley are easy to find. It's a valid career path: if you want to progress fast, find a hot young area where there are no senior experts and work hard to keep up.

Re:My years working on black programs by vonmoltke on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @08:26AM (#21583673)
Wow, if I'd had a situation like this when I was in defense I might still be there. Instead, I had managers old enough to be my father, no upward path until I "put in my time", and an attitude that wanting to move around within the company was "disloyal" to my current management.
Re:My years working on black programs by JustSomeNobody on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @10:18AM (#21584621)
I hope people don't fixate on this and see this as the issue:

> Instead, I had managers old enough to be my father...

This...

> ... an attitude that wanting to move around within the company was "disloyal" to my current management.

... is bad management and bad company culture and are the reasons you get older managers who are inflexible and just riding out a paycheck. Those are the areas to fixate on and if you see it, leave. Nobody should have to work under those conditions. Working for an older manager shouldn't (and rarely is), in and of itself, be a red flag.

Re:My years working on black programs by wcunning on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @10:55AM (#21584955)
I think it's slightly more complicated. Having an older manager/supervisor is not a bad thing. Working in a department where you need to have put in 12 years to become a supervisor is a problem.

The old automotive company I work for released a "strongly recommended" schedule of different responsibilities that an engineer should have held for what time to be considered a strong candidate for promotion. There was a similar document I heard about for going from supervisor to manager. Combined these schedules said that no one would ever work their way up from entry level to department head. Ever. Therefore the only way to get there is outside of the official system via office politics, and not being honest about that is pretty dysfunctional on its own. That said, a symptom of that is the number of supervisors and managers who have 30+ years in...

Re:My years working on black programs by vonmoltke on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @11:49AM (#21585552)
> I think it's slightly more complicated. Having an older manager/supervisor is not a bad thing. Working in a department where you need to have put in 12 years to become a supervisor is a problem.

Exactly. I was too brief with that point, but the issue is first-line managers, in some cases, having more experience than I had years of life at that point. It's an environment that seems to condemn people to life as a minor cog in a huge machine, where your opinions aren't respected and you have no hope of making it into any sort of management responsibility.

Re:My years working on black programs by vonmoltke on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @11:54AM (#21585615)
Yeah, I realize now I should have committed more words to explaining that part. An older manager per se was not a problem. It was that fact that every line manager had 15+ years of experience, and thus this level of tenure appeared to be a requirement to actually advance. It crushed any feelings of ambition, because there was literally nowhere to go even if the other management problems didn't exist.
Re:My years working on black programs by tnel77 on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @08:58AM (#21583900)
I’m sorry to hear that. The defense companies I’ve worked for, big and small, have fought to retain employees. Whether it be the end of a contract or just wanting to change the type of work you are doing, these companies fought to find you another position versus taking your clearance to a competitor.
Re:My years working on black programs by Balgair on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @11:21AM (#21585214)
The Silver Tsunami is not kind to DoD employment and to hiring managers. The young-uns look around, see nothing but old white dudes, and then head to anything resembling a FAANG. Livermore has had a heck of a problem with it. Even the 35+ year olds are trying to make like a banana.
Re:My years working on black programs by hermitdev on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:20PM (#21581054)
I sort of started my career in finance like this. Never sought or intended to be on finance, but I could identify and solve problems the firm(s) I worked for that they didnt even know they had. Used to quip "when I'm doing my job well, noone knows that I exist. The moment I fuck up, everyone knows so exist."
Re:My years working on black programs by youeseh on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @02:04AM (#21581703)
How does billing / incentive / value based compensation work when you're invisible?
Re:My years working on black programs by smabie on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @07:20AM (#21583233)
You often can get a lot of money I’d you threaten to leave. But in my experience, it’s a lot more profitable to work in the front office and have people know exactly how much money you have made for the firm.
Re:My years working on black programs by chasd00 on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @12:36PM (#21586172)
i've always felt the closer you are to revenue the more money you can make. That's why good sales guys can make >$1M/year
Re:My years working on black programs by smabie on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @12:50PM (#21586331)
Exactly. For the same reason that the oyster farmer gets to eat more oysters than anyone else!
Re:My years working on black programs by mcguire on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @09:59AM (#21584437)
Poorly.

Unless you game the system, that is. If you ever see a "hero", they're either incompetent but putting in extra effort or setting up the events.

Re:My years working on black programs by 50ckpuppet on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @11:44AM (#21585497)
Witnessed a "hero" in action, always evaluating what everyone in the room didn't know so he could pretend to be the expert.
Re:My years working on black programs by samstave on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:54PM (#21581198)
Apropos username.
Re:My years working on black programs by walrus01 on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @12:12AM (#21581279)
This is sort of parallel to very young network engineers and NOC staff, in like 1996, discovering for the first time what an ASN is, what BGP4 is, etc. And the commercial growth of the modern Internet.
Re:My years working on black programs by edge17 on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @12:23AM (#21581303)
What would those be in todays context?
Re:My years working on black programs by strictnein on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @01:02AM (#21581448)
Areas in cyber security. Ex: Automating simple but highly repetitive tasks for incident responders will win you lots of friends and generate lots more opportunities if you want it.
Re:My years working on black programs by xouse on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @03:24AM (#21582074)
I think applications of AI to creating 3d modeling assets for videogames. Gaming is a >100 billion dollar industry and art can be as much as half of costs for AAA games. It seems to me like it's the lowest hanging fruit of AI in terms of difficulty vs potential revenue.
Re:My years working on black programs by patrickk on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @03:52AM (#21582207)
Re:My years working on black programs by saiya-jin on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @05:23AM (#21582605)
MS Flight Simulator 2020 seems to be doing this - creating 3D maps of all structures/trees/etc out of normal Bing world flat maps. Not sure how much human touch is required afterwards, but if those early videos are representative then damn that's amazing and brings realism never seen before
Re:My years working on black programs by Cthulhu_ on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @07:24AM (#21583266)
That's one example, another one is for smaller assets - trees and vegetation, for example (SpeedTree). There's definitely a market for creating 3rd party tooling to help with developing a game. There's actually quite a few companies and technologies that specialize in one aspect of a game or game's world.

There's a few other interesting technologies that add a lot of content to a game for relatively small investments; think physics and destruction engines, animation technology (iirc there is something developed by EA's sports games branch that can generate intermediate animations for smooth animation transitions), world generation (height maps), etc.

Re:My years working on black programs by simonbyrne on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @12:58AM (#21581430)
Deep learning is the obvious answer: 10 years ago it was largely confined to a small number of research groups and niche conferences.
Re:My years working on black programs by friendlybus on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @02:50AM (#21581925)
Machine learning's hot moment was back in 2012, is there still low hanging fruit that google can't wipe out?
Re:My years working on black programs by marcoseliziario on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @09:45AM (#21584301)
Enterprises. Too many people doing this on startups already. But lots of money to be done with training and consulting in the corporate world.
Re:My years working on black programs by burning_hamster on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @09:56AM (#21584404)
The behemoths don't (and can't) care about markets with a value below a certain threshold.
Re:My years working on black programs by markus_zhang on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @10:15PM (#21580815)
I'd assume nowadays it could be Cloud, AI? But thinking through, they do have some history.
Re:My years working on black programs by gen220 on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @12:20AM (#21581296)
From where I’m sitting, it seems like most of the money to be made in the next 10 years won’t come from high tech, but rather from applying bang average tech (Python, React, Go, and standard AWS infra) to industries where the most experienced specialists have no concept of what those words mean (e.g. healthcare, agriculture, finance). There are huge opportunities to make these industries more efficient, and make money along the way.
Re:My years working on black programs by LeonM on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @07:51AM (#21583427)
This.

There are so many industries that aren't going to be 'disrupted' by some fancy new tech. Because they have much more urgent low tech problems to solve first.

I've lost count in the number of startups that want to 'disrupt' agriculture with blockchain, because, you know, who wouldn't want to have their potatoes tracked in a decentralized proof-of-stake ledger? PotatoCoin! But reality is that to store data in a blockchain, you first need data to begin with. Many of the business in agriculture is conducted on a handshake, usually there isn't even paperwork. Also, in many countries agriculture relies on operating in a grey area of tax, just to break a profit. I bet a lot of farmers don't even want a transparent ledger for everyone to see ;-)

Most of us developers don't have the real-life industry experience to remotely understand where the opportunities lie. And we are way to naive to think that we can solve any problem with software.

Re:My years working on black programs by Loughla on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @11:03AM (#21585019)
I've been a farmer for most of my life in conjunction with my day job, and this is correct.

There was an article recently in a modern farming magazine about how restaurants and downstream consumer organizations and businesses want to use blockchain technology to track where a cow was raised, where it was processed and how, and when it became the hamburger or whatever you're eating so that customers can scan it and feel better about themselves and their choices.

Cool. Super cool technology. That I will never use on my farm because it provides me with absolutely 0 incentive at the start of the stream other than increased overhead. After looking into the technology, there are ways to use that data to track cattle, and ways to use that data to track yield and feed ratios and that sort of thing, but it's not the purpose, and therefore almost impossible to get out of the system. It also would be super easy to game by the large 'family owned' farms (sort of like how they do it now anyway).

And I already do what I need with excel, it's just time consuming. So it's another example of 'BUT IT'S TECHNOLOGY' that just doesn't appeal to me.

For other examples see: automated weed control, most automated irrigation systems, most automated weather and climate tracking systems, and definitely any/all automated feed and livestock management systems.

The one thing you said that I want to push back - from a very US centered perspective - very little farming is done via handshake anymore. Any farmer who is actually able to survive does so by playing the markets, by pushing formal contracts, and by being smarter than that. Nothing on the outgoing side is left to chance anymore, because all of our inputs are based on chance already (weather, performance, yield).

Re:My years working on black programs by MassiveOwl on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @01:05PM (#21586526)
Ha! I help out the NHS and they're amazed that we are able to autopopulate forms using ActiveDirectory. They're used to paper...
Re:My years working on black programs by thdrdt on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @09:42AM (#21584277)
Yes, for example in warehouse management. Most companies still use outdates apps on Windows ME.

The problem is that stakes are so high that nobody dares to change.

You cannot turn off a running warehouse for some days.

I believe datamigration is mostly where the opportunities are. Because then you can one day flip the switch and start working with new software while having the same 'state' of the old software.

Re:My years working on black programs by rwmurrayVT on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @08:53AM (#21583864)
"The Third Wave" by the AOL guy :)
Re:My years working on black programs by lifeisstillgood on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @01:13AM (#21581487)
Please do expand - I agree with you but as usual am missing the extra connection?
Re:My years working on black programs by gen220 on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @11:09AM (#21585092)
I work at a company that intersects finance and healthcare.

Our competitors to dominance through smart acquisitions, but this came at a fixed linear or super-linear operating cost per unit of growth. We are growing by identifying abstractions, and incorporating the new markets into existing ones.

Their method was the best way to quickly grow a company to a national scale in the 60s, but it comes at the monotonically-increasing costs of internal coordination and duplicate work. Software allows you to grow gracefully, while avoiding those problems as they appear.

As an example, we analyze inbound calls by volume every quarter to identify how we can anticipate user needs, and solve them ahead of time, without requiring a phone call (thereby improving the client's UX and saving operating cost). Every year, we reduce our call volume while simultaneously increasing our client headcount and improving the tools that are at our team's disposal. That kind of iterative optimization isn't possible at the big conglomerates.

Look for industries that haven't figured this out yet, those are the ones where the money will be made; Stripe is a good example of this playing out in finance.

Re:My years working on black programs by wuschel on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @05:37PM (#21589380)
Hello,

thank you for your explanation! I would love to hear more about your approach. I am looking what to do next in my professional life, and these kind of concepts sound very exciting!

Would you perhaps be willing to have a short conference call, or perhaps, an email exchange?

My email address can be found in my profile.

Cheers!

Re:My years working on black programs by caro_douglos on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @03:32AM (#21582122)
I can’t speak for this person but it appears they’re making the case that a lot of value comes from giving some computer love to industries that gets no love but could benefit from a little tlc.
Re:My years working on black programs by BurningFrog on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @10:43PM (#21580915)
That was 5-10 years ago.

It needs to be something I've never/barely heard of.

Re:My years working on black programs by markus_zhang on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:02PM (#21580988)
Damn so it's basically luck...I mean even bitcoin was 10 years ago I think? Also nowadays you probably need to be a PHD to work on something really interesting.
Re:My years working on black programs by derefr on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @12:32AM (#21581333)
Not necessarily luck. Just go to the professional forums of the people in those "cutting-edge to the masses" fields, and see what they're nerding out over as a "cool thing they'd like to get into when it gets a bit more mature."

(It works for programming languages, too. Hang out in a forum for a relatively-new language like, say, Elixir, and you'll hear gossip about a lot of languages whose communities would describe Elixir as a staid legacy language, that'd never merit a mention here.)

Re:My years working on black programs by jcora on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @08:58AM (#21583903)
I don't see how you could actually come up with new stuff in PLT without a very heavy math background, specifically in logic. I mean it's not impossible just extremely unlikely.
Re:My years working on black programs by derefr on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @10:01AM (#21584455)
New programming languages aren’t usually examples of novel advances in type theory. They’re usually just novel combinations of existing features. They’re still “bleeding edge” in the sense that they’re what the industry will be using in 20 years.
Re:My years working on black programs by zarq on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:09PM (#21581011)
A lot of well-known, early programmers had PhD. Not all though.
Re:My years working on black programs by markus_zhang on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:25PM (#21581084)
Makes sense. But computers have a lot of interesting applications so maybe something will come out. For example gaming in the beginning, in 70s and 80s still attracted a lot of teenagers.
Re:My years working on black programs by PinkMilkshake on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:41PM (#21581151)
Maybe AR. I mean, look at Jeri Ellsworth, self taught and probably has the most plausibly commercial AR solution (Tilt Five) so far.
Re:My years working on black programs by Animats on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @01:03AM (#21581449)
That's clever. Nobody can draw dark in AR, which means overlays on the world have to be too bright and shiny. Ellsworth came up with a use case where the AR images always have a grey background, the blank game board. So this is much more workable than the more elaborate AR schemes. Cheaper, too, at $299.
Re:My years working on black programs by samstave on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:56PM (#21581203)
im just amazed that Jared Lanier has found new-founded relevance.

the first i read of him was ~1988 or so in Mondo 2000....

Now he is popping up all over...

Re:My years working on black programs by raverbashing on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @01:39AM (#21581609)
PhDs are overrated

Especially on the lower barrier to entry areas.

Being able to learn things yourself, then learning on the job is more important.

Re:My years working on black programs by zatkin on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @10:42PM (#21580909)
Quantum information science, but I think this field is predicated on having a PhD.
Re:My years working on black programs by winter_blue on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @11:54PM (#21581199)
Quantum information science seems like something that will take many many years before it amounts to something.

I remember reading that a quantum revolution in computing was just around the corner 12 years (in 2007), and only a month ago has any sort of "breakthrough" happened (referring to Google's "quantum supremacy/breakthrough[0]").

Considering this glacial track record, I'm very skeptical.

[0] https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/10/29/20937930/google-quantu...

Re:My years working on black programs by Whirl on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @08:08AM (#21583544)
This is becoming less true. The field is still very PhD heavy, but some employers definitely hire people right out of an undergraduate Physics or ECE degree. They end up effectively completing a PhD program on the job, but don’t get the fancy title. On the bright side, they get paid probably 3-4x more than the average grad student stipend.

I think you’ll start to see more demand for non-PhDs as the various competing QIS players begin to standardize their architectures and practices.

Re:My years working on black programs by adrianN on Wednesday November 20, 2019 @09:46AM (#21584313)
Quantum computers seem to be barely out of the "we just invented a transistor" stage of development. No non-toy general purpose examples exist.
Re:My years working on black programs by garmaine on Tuesday November 19, 2019 @10:34PM (#21580887)
No, there are plenty of experts in those fields. Think things more like bitcoin.