That would leave some, but not much time for VW to get their house in order before they face a serious challenge. But that assumes that Tesla's and VWs markets are the same, whereas I believe VW also has much lower-priced market segments than Tesla.
Right now, Tesla's GF1 and 3 have that locked down with a significant head-start in time as well as tech. They started in 2013 because they foresaw that 500k cars per year would use up the entire world's battery production. They also acquired Maxwell tech to further stream line their cell production with denser and easier-to-manufacture cell chemistry. All of that will be big hurdles for other OEMs to overcome (and that is IF they dedicate resources to it without half-assing it for compliance purposes).
Tesla's Chinese Gigafactory is just popping out it's first Model 3's now, and will ramp up to a similar output in the coming months, so they're about to double their output, and start building another Gigafactory in Europe starting next year.