No one bought SUVs in 2008-2010, but now they're one of the most popular types of cars and ford has alltogether stopped making car models
The greater the cost the more conservation makes business sense.
If an efficient fridge is only 15$/month cheaper it's not replacing your current fridge. At 50$/month it quickly pays off.
It is now just a matter of capital costs replacing old infrastructure with new while ramping up the industries that provide the replacements.
Inefficiencies scale with ramp up speed, but if you increase the cost of fossil fuels those inefficiencies are more competitive so you get a faster ramp-up.
Estimates generally exceed the total known amount of in-ground crude oil.
Enough to supply North America for a century.
Enough that it would never all be used, the price of extraction guarantees other renewable sources of energy will be very competitive while petroleum products will remain available near the previous peak raw petroleum prices from a few years ago (prices collapsed when production of this newer source started to ramp up).
It has been a really good foreign policy lever against Russia and unfriendly middle-east countries, limiting their oil profits and always holding over their heads that we could subsidize the shit out of it and drive them into poverty and ruin.
(Also, "it would never all be used" is a given, what is the expected "peak gas" date ?)
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_River_Formation#Oil_shal...
2.) shale oil is NOT being extracted - you're confusing with tight oil
3.) we don't know whether extracting shale oil even makes sense - for all we know, it might never become economically and energetically viable (IMHO, considering global warming, tight oil/gas & tar sands did not make sense in the first place either - especially since the whole tight oil industry hasn't even shown to be financially and therefore probably energetically profitable !)
4.) even if we did, the (E)ROI (and therefore, the pollution involved) is likely to be dismal
5.) a century ago, world oil production was a few million barrels per day, you can't just both assume business as usual and the consumption to stay flat when taking into account future consumption...
OPEC had been keeping the prices around 100 until the tar sands extraction became big and they had to drastically cut prices because they couldn't handle the loss of revenue.
There is an enormous amount of oil tied up in those tar sands and it is very extricable, but it is considerably more expensive to extract such that it isn't economical at current prices.