Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts

Re:Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts by hn_throwaway_99 on Saturday September 21, 2019 @07:55PM (#21038688)

I'm going to push back against this "let's blame the evil media for everything" view. The treasury yield curve inversion is one of the best indicators we have of an oncoming recession, even if it's not 100% accurate. To not report on that very important signal would have been negligent.

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Re:Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts by tdurden on Saturday September 21, 2019 @08:59PM (#21038941)

It definitely makes sense to report on the yield curve inversion; that certainly could be a possible indicator of a future recession. imo, It has really been taken to another level though with doomsday articles all over the place.

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Re:Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts by blackflame7000 on Saturday September 21, 2019 @08:05PM (#21038736)

Most recessions are preceded by yield inversion, but a yield inversion may or may not lead to a recession. That’s where are the misleading information is coming from.

Edit: Idk why the downvotes. Yield inversions occur much more often than recessions therefore by necessity some yield inversions are preceded by another yield inversion instead of a recession.

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Re:Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts by remarkEon on Saturday September 21, 2019 @10:03PM (#21039171)

"All recessions have been preceded by an inversion of the 2-10 year, but not all inversions of the 2-10 year have preceded a recession" is the phrasiology you're looking for.

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Re:Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts by blackflame7000 on Saturday September 21, 2019 @10:09PM (#21039198)

“not all inversions of the 2-10 year have preceded a recession”

Since recessions are cyclical all inversions eventually lead to a recession. There haven’t been enough cycles to draw any sort of meaningful conclusions based on temporal proximity of the inversions to the recessions.

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Re:Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts by the_narrator on Saturday September 21, 2019 @10:51PM (#21039337)

you seem to be contradicting yourself

> a yield inversion may or may not lead to a recession

> all inversions eventually lead to a recession

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