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Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by amirhirsch on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @12:27PM (#20516828)
Cruise cars drive like a drunk grandma stopping short all over the place and regularly failing to take a protected turn at a green turn light because some pedestrian has a foot edging into a crosswalk.

The biggest safety issue associated with these cars is that everyone else honks and swerves aggressively to evade them when they stop short for dumb reasons like someone in the road waiting in front of their car for traffic to pass so they can get into their car —- these are actions I witness multiple times every day and if you look at every accident report associated with these cars you’ll see almost every case seems like a driver frustrated about being stuck behind it trying to swerve around it.

What isn’t recorded is all the accidents involving the cruise cars that don’t actually impact the cruise car. Like when someone swerving around a cruise car side swiped my neighbors car on Fulton. I almost saw a biker on 14th street by Valencia get hit in a similar manner when someone trying to evade the cruise car in the left lane swerved quickly into the right lane while the biker was avoiding a car in the right lane trying to turn right onto Valencia.

They almost certainly don’t collect statistics on accidents caused by other drivers who just want to get around these cars that clearly don’t need to be tested in a way that makes everyone’s commute just a little bit more obnoxious.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by ebg13 on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @12:43PM (#20516973)
> The biggest safety issue associated with these cars is that everyone else...

...drives dangerously and therefore illegally?

That's an indictment of human drivers, not self-driving vehicles.

So start aggressively ticketing all of the reckless humans and maybe that behavior will stop.

If you have to swerve, then you're not following at a safe distance. If you swerve without having to, that's also recklessly dangerous. Both behaviors _should_ be penalized.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by johnbrodie on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @12:50PM (#20517060)
There's more to it than that. Traffic is as safe as it is (I won't call it flat-out "safe"), in no small part because people can anticipate other drivers. A _predictable_ driver is a safe driver. Having self-driving cars randomly stop short is a quick way to rack up a lot of "not legally at fault", but perhaps morally at-fault, accidents.

FWIW, if you've ever done car/bike track days, this is a huge reason why it's so safe. People are split into groups according to skill level, with restrictions on passing (normally "only on the straights") for the lower groups. Much of the "skill level" here is actually just being predictable, not being outright fast. Someone can be in a Miata getting passed with a 50mph speed differential on a straight _because everyone is being predictable_. That same Miata might pass the same car with a huge speed differential at 90 mph in a turn, and it works because everyone is predictable.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by rhino369 on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @12:58PM (#20517152)
>Having self-driving cars randomly stop short is a quick way to rack up a lot of "not legally at fault", but perhaps morally at-fault, accidents.

And I'm pretty sure, in most jurisdictions, slamming on the breaks unexpectedly and for no good reason, will get you at least a portion of the liability for an accident. The person who rear-ends you will get some too, but its not always true that you can't be at fault when you get rear-ended.

As you imply, no safety system should rely on others doing their job perfectly. That is an inherently unsafe system.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by JamesBarney on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @02:47PM (#20518338)
If there was an accident and the cops ask you "why did you break suddenly?" and you say something reasonable that's not "to commit insurance fraud" you probably won't be at fault. It's the responsibility of the person behind you to keep a safe following distance.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by karthikb on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @07:58PM (#20521359)
I have had the "pleasure" of driving alongside and behind Cruise's vehicles on many occasions here in San Francisco. They will stop dramatically in the middle of a block (empty, no traffic, no pedestrians), edge forward, dramatically stop again, go halfway through the intersection and again...dramatically stop.

It feels to me like whoever has written their braking algorithm is using bang bang control.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by rhino369 on Thursday July 25, 2019 @12:38PM (#20526851)
Sure, but that an issue of evidence. Google, Uber, Tesla, etc. have source code, records, emails, reports, etc. that can potentially prove their cars just break because they aren't good enough drivers. And they have deep enough pockets that lawyers will go after them.

1000% sure Google will end up writing a check if someone dies because they rear-ended a google car that suddenly hit the breaks.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by MegaButts on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @12:55PM (#20517117)
I agree with you that people should be ticketed for reckless driving, but I believe you're missing the point. If adding these cars to the road causes more accidents, regardless of who is at fault, they are making the roads more dangerous.

Just like enforcing drug laws doesn't seem to increase public safety (I welcome data one way or the other, but my understanding is it actually is a significant contributor to decreasing public safety), maybe we should be honest with ourselves about human behavior and write our laws to actually cater to that.

If humans reject self-driving cars, making laws protecting them isn't going to make people accept them. Make the self-driving cars actually acceptable to humans and then you don't even have a problem you try to solve with regulation.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by jfoster on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @02:33PM (#20518177)
Wouldn't it depend on the type of accident? From what I understand the most common case is that an autonomous vehicle will not proceed when a human thought it would (eg. at an intersection), resulting in the human hitting the back of the autonomous vehicle at low speed. That type of accident is preventable through patience and not very severe. It seems fine to me to have more of those if it results in any decrease in more severe accidents.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by MegaButts on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @03:11PM (#20518602)
It was a hypothetical - it has nothing to do with the data because nobody is sharing the data. You can reinterpret it to mean "more dangerous" or however you like. The main point is culpability is irrelevant if the goal is safety.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by amirhirsch on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @12:53PM (#20517091)
Your proposed solution is obviously untenable. The danger I’m describing is that not all cars are self-driving and the way human drivers react to these cars dramatically increases the danger around these cars. Drivers in SF may already know what to expect, but in every new city they roll out in, the human drivers will react rashly to these cars as they are frustrated with the unpredictable, inhuman, and incommunicable (no eye contact or hand waving) decisions they make.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by ebg13 on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:26PM (#20517449)
> human drivers...dramatically increases the danger

I know you're putting a gradual transition into context, but I see you say this ^, and my reaction is to suggest that we take human drivers off the road who recklessly endanger others instead of giving them a pass with the vehicular equivalent of "boys will be boys".

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by dsfyu404ed on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @02:29PM (#20518144)
Having traffic be predictable is far more important than the specific rules it follows. Human driven traffic follows rules, including a massive context specific set of rules about when it is reasonable to break the written rules.

Drivers that adhere to the letter of the laws and totally disregarding the unwritten rules make terrible drivers because they do not follow the full set of rules that the majority of human drivers follow. All current autonomous cars drive like this. A small but infuriating subset of human drivers behave like this too. Generally it's expected that you pass these obstructions when possible and safe enough to do so (legal or not, though what's safe is usually legal too).

What people consider safe varies somewhat between people. Anyone will pass a tractor on a country two lane. Only the most bold will pass a Cruise in traffic. Of course there's a danger zone around it.

The current system is designed for humans and if we're ever going to automate it the autonomous cars need to be able to coexist with the human cars without causing problems. Boys will be boys isn't an excuse because it doesn't need to be. One of the engineering requirements is to get along with the boys.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by kalenx on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @03:15PM (#20518643)
Well I do not think the issue is about following the unwritten rules. The issue is for a company to admit "yeah we're willingly programing/training our vehicles to break the law". Sure, it might be actually less dangerous to do so, but I'm not sure their PR department will be happy about it.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by dsfyu404ed on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @03:20PM (#20518687)
I fully expect you are correct. I'm sure the engineers riding along are well aware how overly conservative they're being.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by princeb on Thursday July 25, 2019 @06:39AM (#20524229)
are the engineers "over-conservative"? or have human drivers become inured to what should have been considered an unacceptable amount of driving risk?
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by dsfyu404ed on Thursday July 25, 2019 @07:39AM (#20524488)
What's "acceptable risk" is basically a matter of social consensus so anything human drivers (as a group) are ok with is de-facto acceptable.

I think the engineers know the software drives un-humanly but they can't change it because driving like a dick within the letter of the law results in far less legal liability than driving like a human and breaking the law.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by ebg13 on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @03:48PM (#20518964)
> Human driven traffic follows rules

This is wishful thinking and clearly false. If it were true, there wouldn't be any at-fault crashes. The only accurate claim you can make is "human traffic sometimes follows rules, and the rules that it sometimes follows change regularly from person to person and moment to moment". That's not a defensible state.

Implicit in your mistaken description is a pretense that humans are psychic and that we can predict what other people will do, but we aren't and, despite believing otherwise, we can't. That's why defensive driving is so important.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by dsfyu404ed on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @05:13PM (#20519777)
>This is wishful thinking and clearly false

No it's not, but you'll likely never see it that way let alone admit you're wrong on the internet.

>If it were true, there wouldn't be any at-fault crashes.

Computers follow rules perfectly 100% of the time yet we still have software bugs.

>The only accurate claim you can make is "human traffic sometimes follows rules, and the rules that it sometimes follows change regularly from person to person and moment to moment".

You understand rules to be flexible and subject to some interpretation (like laws, not like a firewall config). Context is important. The rules that govern human interaction are complex.

>That's not a defensible state

This comment proves otherwise.

>Implicit in your mistaken description is a pretense that humans are psychic and that we can predict what other people will do, but we aren't and, despite believing otherwise, we can't

Humans don't need to be psychics to accurately predict what other drives will do. Humans are really good at pattern identification and picking up on subtle cues.

>That's why defensive driving is so important.

Being able to make accurate predictions of the future state of what is around you based on the current and past state of what is around you is far more helpful than defensiveness for any amount of defensiveness.

The behavior by AI vehicles fielded by Cruise and similar is a glaring example of that while defensiveness is great at avoiding liability it does not necessarily make the road around you safer (maybe even worse, as many comments anecdotally point out). This is the main gripe people have with AI and human driven vehicles that practice defensive driving to the point of absurdity. Defensive driving without human level ability to predict what other traffic will do is not sufficient for the kinds of situations that are regularly encountered in urban areas.

Most people will never get in a car crash in their entire lives (bumping into an object in a parking lot notwithstanding). I think that speaks for itself.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by ebg13 on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @06:32PM (#20520679)
> Computers follow rules perfectly 100% of the time yet we still have software bugs.

At-fault crashes are not analogous to software bugs. The computer didn't look at its phone when your code has bugs. Your off-by-one error didn't happen because the computer changed lanes suddenly without signaling.

Computers also don't follow predictable rules perfectly 100% of the time. That's why we have things like ECC memory and other single event upset detection.

You're working from an ideal model of the way you think things ought to work while ignoring the reality of what actually happens.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by amirhirsch on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:29PM (#20517484)
I am so down for a car-less city
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by jakeogh on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @05:44PM (#20520124)
This "humans are the bugs" thing is indicative of the disconnect between reality and the pre-programmed car proponents.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20462051

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by lunias on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @03:37PM (#20518846)
IMO it is less desirable to be a person who incites rage as compared to a person who becomes occasionally enraged.

Driving is strange in that there are upper bounds, but rarely lower bounds. i.e. a minimum speed is a rarity (and even more rarely enforced).

If I made the rules then we would have speed targets (not limits) and people would be penalized for driving outside of a +/- 10% range. After all, it's not speed itself that kills. It's a large and sudden speed delta.

Ideally, the speed targets would also be variable and data driven.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by danmaz74 on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @06:01PM (#20520335)
The higher the speed, the higher the speed delta will the road and all stationary objects.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by lunias on Thursday July 25, 2019 @03:00PM (#20528339)
That's true, but I'm not advocating ludicrous speeds. I feel like people rarely crash into stationary objects when they're traveling on a highway and are more likely to rear-end someone entering their lane traveling significantly slower than the flow of traffic (or swerve around them and accidentally hit someone else). Increasing the flow rate should in theory also cut down on the amount of traffic on the road at point in time; making crashing into others less likely by default.

Also, crash your car off the road or into walls all you want. Just don't crash into someone else please.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by malandrew on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:39PM (#20517585)
Plus the SDC has cameras and sensors to capture other drivers being reckless and that data can be used as evidence to prosecute those drivers.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by skywhopper on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @05:30PM (#20519967)
Stopping suddenly for no good reason is also reckless behavior. Issuing a bunch of citations is not a remotely reasonable solution. These cars are clearly not ready to be tested in a place like San Francisco.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by stevenwoo on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:51PM (#20517739)
It's totally irrational but living near the Mountain View location of Waymo makes me hate having the self driving car development process. They add to the traffic in a very congested area (making left turns on Rengstorff I assume to regression test, but this stops traffic for extended periods), then show up in low traffic suburban areas that would otherwise be quiet and clear of traffic ( for some reason they love to use through streets in Los Altos for training and my 300 yard long street at all hours including at night - I can recognize the whine of those cars now), and when behind one, a driver notices how carefully the self driving car has to consider the possibilities and how slowly it acts on decisions - like a 90 year old person reaction time, and giving pedestrians far away from the crosswalks the benefit of the doubt - they could run out into the street and the self driving cars I've been behind seem to assume this is going to happen every time - I can at least look at the person's body language and head and where they are looking. Of course this is only anecdotal from driving errands around Mountain View and cycling around Palo Alto/Los Altos.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by skywhopper on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @05:25PM (#20519910)
Your reaction is not irrational at all. This sort of abuse of public space to test technology that is nowhere close to being ready should make you angry. They are trying to progress more rapidly by externalizing the costs of experimentation onto the public. They've hit a plateau and don't have a clue how to get beyond it, but they've got billions of dollars of pressure on the backs of promises they made, so they can't admit their fundamental approach is unsuitable to reach what is actually a questionable end-goal in the first place--namely, self-driving taxis. Why is that the first problem they are trying to tackle? That's the hardest problem to solve. I think it all goes back to Uber struggling to defend its business model. To justify their nine- and ten- figure quarterly losses, they had to promise a world where the labor costs would go away (how driverless Ubers could ever pay back all the money they've lost, I have no idea--if they replace contract labor with their own capital and the maintenance involved... how is this a profitable company?). They convinced their investors it was possible. And then everyone else assumed it was possible and bought into that same fantasy. I hope we're finally waking up. But those billions have left a major hangover and no one is thinking clearly quite yet.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by brokensegue on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @02:54PM (#20518424)
it used to be way worse when waymo had they had those tiny electric cars driving similar routes but below 30mph
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by williamscales on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @03:14PM (#20518627)
At least those were adorable, they were like local wildlife.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by jessriedel on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @02:55PM (#20518429)
A very conservative lower bound is that every day we don't have self-driving cars costs the country $1 billion in lost value. Every single day.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by vageli on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @03:02PM (#20518492)
> A very conservative lower bound is that every day we don't have self-driving cars costs the country $1 billion in lost value. Every single day.

And every day we don't have solar cells are 2000% more efficient than current technology costs us tens of billions in lost value. What exactly is your point?

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by jessriedel on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @06:44PM (#20520791)
The point is that the inconveniences being described by stevenwoo are utterly trivial. It's like listening to someone who lived in Cape Canaveral during the '60s complain that they dislike the whole Apollo program because one of the engineers once left a 5% tip in a local restaurant. Acknowledging that this feeling is irrational doesn't make it a useful HN comment.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by vageli on Thursday July 25, 2019 @06:33PM (#20530476)
I see your point. I'm left wondering if there aren't real impacts to testing this technology in the real world though. Like if there have been any deaths due to emergency responders being stuck behind these vehicles or something similar.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by brokensegue on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @10:05PM (#20522003)
well there is a known upper bound on solar cells efficiency. and even then we are pouring all the moneys into improving solar cell efficiency
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by skywhopper on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @05:27PM (#20519927)
It's even higher for the cold fusion we're missing, and teleportation technology.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by jessriedel on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @06:45PM (#20520810)
If you think those three techs have comparable likelihood of existing in our lifetimes, I'd quite seriously like to make a bet with you.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by DrScump on Thursday July 25, 2019 @04:36AM (#20523669)
Source?
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by q_queue on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:18PM (#20517372)
I'm not sure what it implies statistically, but I've now seen the aftermaths of two fairly significant (ie, left in undriveable condition) cruise car collisions just on my block in SF in the past few months. In fact they're the only automobile collisions I've seen on my block in years. No idea of cause or responsibility, of course.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by WhompingWindows on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:48PM (#20517683)
N=2 implies nothing statistically.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by Meekro on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @12:57PM (#20517139)
One nice feature of these cars is that they have always-on 360-degree video, which should make it trivial to determine fault in the case of accidents. Even if the self-driving car itself wasn't hit, the video could be provided to shed light on what happened around it.

So if you're reckless, swerve around it because you're frustrated, etc. be prepared to be held at-fault and watch your insurance rates skyrocket.

Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by amirhirsch on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:07PM (#20517246)
Yes, the data collected in every accident can be used to improve the self driving car too, but probably not increase their predictability. it’s a gray moral zone to suggest that emotional, frustrated people are totally at fault for the statistically increased recklessness around self-driving cars being tested during rush hour. It’s bad enough with the Uber and Lyft drivers who clearly drive like they have no idea where they are or where they are going; but at least do so predictably.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by WhompingWindows on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @01:49PM (#20517707)
So, human drivers are terribly impatient and reckless? This is one of the reasons we need to take cars out of human hands. Cruise cars could integrate better with traffic, no doubt, but you can't blame Cruise for humans being impatient and shitty drivers.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by rad_gruchalski on Thursday July 25, 2019 @06:42AM (#20524240)
Some are, not all. And even then, they maybe not always are. Please, don’t generalise. We have laws and ways of dealing with reckless drivers.
Re:GM Cruise to delay commercial launch of self-driving cars... by dsfyu404ed on Wednesday July 24, 2019 @02:03PM (#20517880)
>Cruise cars drive like a drunk grandma...

Don't forget the part where said drunk grandma's proponents say she's a great driver because she has so few at fault accidents. ;)