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Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by luckydata on Sunday July 07, 2019 @10:02PM (#20379363)
Hope this helps Africa develop its economy in a way that's positive for the people that live there, all of them. Not sold on the idea of a single currency, that hasn't worked so hot for Europe, especially the weaker economies like the mediterranean countries.

Aren't they repeating the same mistake Paul Krugman refers to as "original sin of monetary policy"?

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/original-sin-an...

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by lopmotr on Monday July 08, 2019 @12:04AM (#20379810)
It's much worse for Africa than the EU. Here are the ratios of GDP per capita of the highest to lowest states in each region, excluding outliers DC and Luxembourg:

US: 2:1 (Massachusetts $66,000 : Mississippi: $32,000)

Eurozone: 4:1 (Ireland $71,000 : Latvia $16,000)

Africa (PPP): 50:1 (Equatorial Guinea $35,000 : Central African Republic $700)

CAR isn't even an outlier. There are several African countries with less than $1000 GDP(PPP) per capita and several with over $10,000. So it's much more diverse than the Eurozone.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by runarberg on Monday July 08, 2019 @01:33AM (#20380145)
According to wikipedia Guam has a GDP per capita of $30,500 and American Samoa has an even lower GDP per capita of $13,000 so 5:1 is closer to reality for the US.

That said. The US is not the only country to oficially use the US dollar. Among others, Ecuador has a GDP per capita of just under $12,000 and uses the US dollar, Palau $16,000, East Timor $5,500, and lowest are Marshall Islands and Micronesia both with GDP per capita under $4,000 bringing the ratio closer to 1:18.

Also there are plenty of counties with even lower GDP that uses the dollar unofficially, so I don’t see a problem with a high GDP per capita ratio.

Edit: Equatorial Guinea is also an outlier with high GDP and low population. We could arbitrarily decide to include San Francisco in the US example with a GDP per person of over $100,000 bringing the US ratio up to 1:7 and the US dollar ratio to 1:25

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by guaka on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:23AM (#20380905)
It's not as if most people are rich in Equatorial Guinea. It's an appalling outlier in terms of inequality, even on such an unequal continent as Africa.

"Only about half of the country’s population has access to clean drinking water, overcrowded living condition is—surprisingly given the country’s low population density—rampant and very few children enjoy the advantages of urban life such as education, medical services and recreational facilities." https://borgenproject.org/equatorial-guinea-poverty/

I tried to find data about GINI for the country but the World Bank and the UN don't have anything. http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/income-gini-coefficient

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by ben_w on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:26AM (#20380917)
Is state-level GDP per capita the correct model to use? Why not compare, for example, city-level GDP per capita? After all capital and workforce are free to move between cities not just countries.

(Plus the whole fun where American member states are not entirely sovereign, while EU member states are countries in their own right, and in the case of e.g. Germany are themselves federal nations with multiple constituent states)

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by lopmotr on Monday July 08, 2019 @09:28PM (#20388259)
Well yes. And I don't really understand why a common currency between rich and poor countries is a problem. But people are saying that it won't work. I suppose it won't work if you depend on the government to be able to control the money supply to fool people into thinking they have more or less money than they really do. But is that really necessary?
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by antupis on Monday July 08, 2019 @01:21AM (#20380104)
But Equatorial Guinea is an outlier.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by dalbasal on Monday July 08, 2019 @05:21AM (#20381168)
One (arguable) difference is that the weaker African economies can't really borrow in their own currencies and therefore can't inflate currency to deal with debt burden. Thats what Greece couldn't do, because of the euro.

Previously, their debt would ha e been in local currency. In times of debt crises the value of the currency would have (even without explicit government action) declined (inflation). This makes the debts smaller, both formal national debts and private debts. It also (this get more Keynesian & controversial) creates a way to lower sticky prices (especially salaries).

Say you charge £100 per month for software and inflation eats 25% of this, the contract is still for £100. It is also tricky to "raise" prices while the economy is in trouble and people/businesses are cutting costs. The biggest place where this applies is salaries. Inflation cuts salaries, which in practical terms is near impossible to do otherwise.

But, if local currency is very weak, debt tends to be denominated in foreign currency anyway... even salaries. The only prices denominated in local currency are flexible anyway (eg carrots at the market).

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by repolfx on Monday July 08, 2019 @07:46AM (#20381891)
They can inflate their currencies just by printing more of it. Currently that sort of quantitive easing is restricted to the specific country that does it. A future African Union would make the EU look like a pillar of stability in comparison - stronger countries like Kenya, South Africa would want more stable lower inflation currencies and basket cases would want to run the mint at full speed.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by dalbasal on Monday July 08, 2019 @08:14AM (#20382044)
Yup, but in all cases the currency will be responsive to the aggregate economy, not the local economy.

I'm not very knowledgeable about African economics, but that said, I think that the downsides to a common currency experienced by Greece will be a much smaller issue in Africa, because stability is more important than monetary policy tools and "natural" inflation during debt crisis. The monetary solutions (market and/or policy solutions) just aren't available to most of the smaller African economies anyway. OTOH, currency stability is a problem and common currency generally helps with this.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by tim333 on Monday July 08, 2019 @01:50PM (#20385003)
I'm not sure that's a big difference. I doubt investors were very keen to hold Greek drachma debt in a similar way that they aren't keen on weak African currencies.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by dalbasal on Monday July 08, 2019 @02:22PM (#20385302)
They were borderline... in that Drachma denominated bonds generally carried slightly higher interest rates, but in practice a good portion of national debt was in Drachma. Salaries were certainly Drachma denominated. It may not have been USD, but it was a lot stronger than many/most African currencies.

Besides all the complex economic reasons, Africa just has a lot of very small countries/economies. That makes it hard for them to operate in local currencies and most debt (also salaries, real estate) effectively or explicitly get denominated in foreign currencies anyway. A European equivalent might be Montenegro of Kosovo, but there are 20-30 African countries in that position. Some are reasonably wealthy/developed, but small. Some are very low GDP per capita. Some are both.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by Balgair on Monday July 08, 2019 @12:38PM (#20384171)
Like everything else, it's complicated.

Africa is even more diverse than the EU in terms of languages, cultures, size, climates, and histories. So, you'd think that a single currency union would then be even more difficult to pull off.

However, Africa is set to grow by 3 Billion people (~300%) in the next 80 years or so, and their standard of living is set to be on par with ~2005 Europe as well.

Africa has also had a series of very brutal wars in the past few decades that have devastated the countries and their peoples.

As other commentors have pointed out, though Europe has had a lot of troubles with their economies with the Euro, they have thus far avoided wars like the ones we saw less than 80 years ago.

If currency unions help avoid wars like the few we've seen in the Congo (sometimes termed the African World Wars with 2.7 to 5.4 million deaths) then I'd think all the countries would be very much for such a union.

Setting up a good system right now is not unwise.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by blueblimp on Sunday July 07, 2019 @10:19PM (#20379441)
My first reaction was similar. Why imitate the Euro when that experiment has gone badly?
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by seer on Monday July 08, 2019 @02:25AM (#20380347)
I would call the euro a smashing success to be honest. Small countries, especially the ones that came out of the old ussr, seem to be very susceptible to their leaders playing with the currency to further their immediate goals, to the detriment of long term prosperity. Namely they like to print money.

Countries that pegged their currency to the euro, or outright started using it got measurably better than the one that didn’t.

Counties that had “troubles because of the euro” would have most definitely had them even without, but the problem would have surfaced much later, when the damage would have been done.

It’s just so easy to solve economy problems with devaluing a currency and most, especially populist governments just can’t help themselves but do it, ending in huge nation wide catastrophes - see a lot of latin america, pre-euro ex-ussr countries etc.

Having a stable currency is just vital to the long term health of a country, and the euro has certainly helped with that immensely. It does remove a tool from a government’s toolbox, but a dangerous one that I wouldn’t trust most of them to use anyway.

As for Africa, with the amount of financial education the populace has at large, I would presume a stable currency would do wonders to their economies long term, at least for several generations ahead.

A bit oversimplified but very accessible source of info for geopolitical economic stuff like this would be VisualPolitik youtube channel.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by repolfx on Monday July 08, 2019 @07:50AM (#20381908)
Namely they like to print money

So does the EU though. This doesn't seem like an especially great plus point for the Euro, given the QE (money printing) on a truly vast scale carried out by Mario "whatever it takes to save the euro" Draghi and likely to be continued by his successor.

Basically the eurozone stays unified by having local governments borrow money from the ECB, which is willing to engage in apparently unlimited bond purchases to ensure yields stay low and pro-EU governments stay in power. This amounts to massive wealth transfers from (primarily) Germany to the rest of the eurozone for purely political reasons. Germany is willing to tolerate this because of its past: German national pride has been transferred nearly wholesale to the EU's desired future nation of "Europe". Would African nations tolerate the same? Seems very dubious.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by seer on Monday July 08, 2019 @11:59AM (#20383824)
The euro sure has its problems with the uneven power distributions of its users, but wouldn’t you call the same for the us dollar or the yuan for that matter? I’m sure there would chinese be provinces that tolerate their underperforming neighbors for similar political reasons.

Maybe Africa will show us what a more equitable power distribution looks like? I’d love for them to try. But I would predict that it would be vastly beneficial for capital flowing into that African union to have a stable currency. People with money usually don’t want their capital to evaporate for frivolous reasons.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by TomMarius on Monday July 08, 2019 @05:42AM (#20381250)
The Czech Republic (the fastest growing EU economy) wouldn't be as successful had it accepted Euro.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by patrickmcnamara on Monday July 08, 2019 @06:06AM (#20381358)
Ireland has technically been the fastest growing economy in the EU for the past several years and it uses the Euro.

GDP is an iffy measure for Ireland though.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by seer on Monday July 08, 2019 @11:52AM (#20383742)
Perhaps, its all a trade off. Maybe you lucked out with your governments. Having your own currency is a tool that _can_ be used wisely to great effect. It’s just that the modern world is filled with examples of the opposite.

And it has been just a couple of decades. Over the long run, stable currencies usually outperform their capricious rivals. Mostly because investors want stability, and so they flock to places where it is present.

There are numerous examples of countries with their own currency doing well, or doing very very poorly. But there are few examples of countries doing very badly _because_ they adopted a union currency.

Imagine Alabama stating they’ll quit the US dollar and get their own alabamians or something - it might go great, it might go badly, but you sure know it would be risky. And investors by and large wouldn’t like that.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by TomMarius on Tuesday July 09, 2019 @07:45AM (#20390816)
You're saying that there is no threat in accepting Euro? There definitely is - as you said, investors don't like uncertainty, and in our specific case that makes great uncertainty. Imagine a country saying they will abandon their 100+ years old currency in favor of much younger and worse performing one that the country has no control over, forever tying it to risky economies. Union currencies have usually been formed in times of either crisis or rapid growth which of course changes the risk calculation, but we're somewhere in the middle between these two and not after any destructive war.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by vnorilo on Monday July 08, 2019 @12:52AM (#20379997)
Well, as an individual eurozoner I vastly prefer a single currency and for me personally it certainly reduces the friction of cross-border trade (I both buy stuff and sell services).

I understand that many eurozone countries could be helped by currency tools like devaluing, but I'm not sure if anyone can really know how the tradeoffs vs. smoother commerce pan out and conclude authoritatively that the whole thing is a net negative.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by Double_a_92 on Monday July 08, 2019 @02:15AM (#20380298)
How do currency policies even work? Isn't it like the state forcing exporting and tourism companies to lower their prices (by devaluating the currency)? Why is that the states job instead of the individual companies'?

Also the state can scam buyers of state bonds by inflating the currency, which also has the sideeffect of meddling with it's own economy.

It's not a silver bullet, it's just different cancer.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by bainsfather on Monday July 08, 2019 @03:26AM (#20380621)
"Isn't it like the state forcing exporting and tourism companies to lower their prices (by devaluating the currency)? Why is that the states job instead of the individual companies'?"

With a free-floating currency, prices for foreign buyers can change overnight. This can allow quick responses to shocks. In contrast, internal devaluation (deflation) is a very slow process (how do you coordinate everyone in a country to reduce their prices).

e.g. for the UK circa 2008 the economy had problems (more reliant on finance sector than most other countries) and the currency dropped, making UK exporters more competitive. Italy or Greece a few years later would have also seen their currencies fall, had they not been locked into the same currency as Germany. Instead, their exporters have problems with competitiveness which take many years to equilibrate (they must have lower inflation or deflation relative to Germany).

There is a subject called 'Optimum Currency Areas'. As always, there are tradeoffs, more homogeneous economic areas face this particular problem less and so are more likely to benefit from a single currency.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by vnorilo on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:05AM (#20380825)
Thank you for the insights. Any thoughts on how it went down in Latvia, sometimes cited as a success story but also criticized [1]?

[1]: http://cepr.net/publications/reports/latvias-internal-devalu...

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by bainsfather on Monday July 08, 2019 @06:06AM (#20381363)
I am sorry, no. I do not have such expertise.

When I read economics textbooks, I see a marked contrast to physics textbooks. e.g. in physics, they might explain about a pendulum using equations etc, but then they show you real experimental data, to show that your equations about period vs pendulum length are correct. I have not found economics textbooks that do that.

The more basic thing that economics gives me is akin to this: when iron ships were first proposed, sceptics might say 'iron sinks, so iron ships are impossible, you are crazy'. You can answer this by putting an iron saucepan in the kitchen sink, and showing that it floats.

So (macro) economics can tell me some basic things about 'which way is up'. But putting even half-accurate numbers on things is difficult. imo economics is often done best when you view it using historical case studies + theory to know which way each effect acts.

This is not to say that what you ask is impossible, but when that is done (by experts, not me), it is not convincing enough to convince others that it is right.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by Double_a_92 on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:54AM (#20381052)
> Instead, their exporters have problems with competitiveness which take many years to equilibrate (they must have lower inflation or deflation relative to Germany).

Then why don't they lower their prices? Why do they need to rely on a devaluating currency (which might come automatically from the market, or from the central bank actively buying foreign currency at high price)?

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by bainsfather on Monday July 08, 2019 @05:26AM (#20381187)
So, you need to lower all prices - i.e. as an exporter you ask your workers to take wage cuts, they must ask their landlords to reduce their rents, shopkeepers to reduce prices etc. This is a slow process (especially because many contracts run for a fixed period so cannot be changed until the next contract is signed).

Internal devaluation can be done, it is just a slow and painful process (usually including higher unemployment).

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by imtringued on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:42AM (#20380990)
Currency devaluation happens automatically regardless of government intervention. Where did you get the idea that it's just a currency policy? Currency devaluation and appreciation are purely market driven depending on supply and demand. If you have two countries trading with each other and one of them has a surplus like the trade between Germany and Greece. Greece has to borrow money from Germany for a surplus to happen. The market automatically compensates for this. What happens is that the demand for the German currency shoots up and demand for the Greek currency goes down. This means that eventually German products are no longer affordable because the Greek currency has been devalued and Germany won't lend money to Greece anymore because they can't pay it back. This also means that suddenly Greek labor is much cheaper than German labor despite the productivity gap. Therefore there is now an incentive to start more Greek businesses.

Anyway the takeaway is that there is an upper bound to how much Greece can borrow from Germany before local industry becomes more cost effective. The goal is to trade as much as possible but to also support the local economy.

Now the same scenario with the Euro results in no appreciation or devaluation. Greece borrows money from Germany. The exchange rate doesn't change because it's the same currency. Greece's ability to repay the loan did not change but there is now no economic pressure to not lend money. Greece can lend as much as it wants and since German products are always more cost effective it will use that borrowed money to always buy German products. The local economy languishes and eventually Greece has borrowed so much that it can't pay off it's debt. Then all you need to do to finish off Greece is to launch some kind of austerity policy that decimates what little local economy has managed to survive.

There is no working solution for the problems a unified currency causes. The best thing that one could possibly do is to have transfer payments to cancel the surplus but there is no way to force people to spend that money in the local economy and there is still the perverse incentive to increase the surplus to get more transfer payments.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by Double_a_92 on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:58AM (#20381075)
> Where did you get the idea that it's just a currency policy?

Not just, but it is.

E.g. Switzerland has actively tried for years to peg 1.20 CHF to 1 EUR, to ensure that exports would not be hurt by a strong CHF. ... Until it suddenly didn't anymore.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by repolfx on Monday July 08, 2019 @07:53AM (#20381925)
Very, very likely it's still secretly pegged. CHF:EUR is extremely stable although not much that was driving its appreciation fundamentally changed .
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by petre on Monday July 08, 2019 @01:18AM (#20380092)
I also buy stuff and services frictionlessly being outside of the EZ. Why trade away your country's monetary sovereignity for the convenience of currency exchange? We all know what happened to Greece and to the Italian economy.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by mad_tortoise on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:02AM (#20380817)
Monetary sovereignty is an ambiguous concept here in Africa. Many countries use the Dollar as acceptable forms of payment, and countries surrounding South Africa are susceptible to the strength of the Rand compared to say the Namibian Dollar, Botswana Pula or Zim Dollar.. So when many nation's already rely on a secondary currency, why have that currency be the Dollar? Make it a single currency, which works across borders (a major factor for Africans as many work in other countries and send money home) and begin to stabilise African economies together, rather than one at a time via the China/IMF's predatory loans.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by petre on Monday July 08, 2019 @06:11AM (#20381393)
I can understand this. But it doesn't have to be te sole currency. Give contries the option of either running their own currency or using a single AU currency both by participaring in the AU or using it unilaterally like Montenegro is using the Euro.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by goodcanadian on Monday July 08, 2019 @02:12AM (#20380285)
The Greece and Italian economies were mismanaged. The Euro, in and of itself, had little to do with it. At worst, it removed one tool for dealing with the mismanagement. Far better to manage it well in the first place.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by petre on Monday July 08, 2019 @02:49AM (#20380433)
Greece maybe. But if Italy's economy was mismanaged it was due to outside pressure.

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/how-to-ruin-...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19649182

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by pmontra on Monday July 08, 2019 @03:49AM (#20380751)
To put it into the words of my father (Italy early 90s), "the Euro will be good for us because our politicians will have to stop stealing". But they didn't and we kept voting for them. This is the problem in Italy. Internal, not external. Then other countries can take advantage of it, that's the way the world works.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by gattilorenz on Monday July 08, 2019 @02:59AM (#20380479)
> Until the early 1990s, Italy enjoyed decades of relatively robust economic growth

This is painting just one side of the story. Look up the graphs for debt as % of GDP in the same years.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by gattilorenz on Monday July 08, 2019 @07:43AM (#20381873)
Here they are:

https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rj28mXbk6V8/TsEC58hZftI/AAAAAAAAA...

Sure, we were growing, but more than that we were growing our public debt. I'm no economist, but this doesn't seem the sign of a healthy economy to me.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by vnorilo on Monday July 08, 2019 @01:29AM (#20380127)
Maybe the businesses in your country improve their conversion rates ever so slightly because of said convenience? We spend time and money to optimize for far sillier things in our funnels.

I do not claim to know the aggregate effects, but I would guess it is not as simple as convenience vs. sovereignity.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by petre on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:39AM (#20380968)
Not really. Visa and the banks do take a cut. But there is Revolut now if you want to give them the middle finger. They will be forced to adapt and offer similar services or at least non-ripoff exchange rates. I always prefer a free market solution to an EU buceaucratic solution. Such as EU mandated zero transaction fees in order to convert the bulk of the transactions to cashless, be able to track them and "prevent money laundering", which of course isn't true (eg. Danske bank scandal).
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by imtringued on Monday July 08, 2019 @04:15AM (#20380871)
Devaluation is not a mere government tool, it's an automatic, market based mechanism of leveling the playing field between two countries.
Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by hydrox24 on Monday July 08, 2019 @12:11AM (#20379831)
> Why imitate the Euro when that experiment has gone badly?

Because the Euro solved a problem that did not exist in the EU. Every nation that joined was able to convert their currency to other EU currencies at reasonably low cost, and because each currency was relatively stable, at a low risk too. Africans do actually have high currency conversion costs, and some of the currencies are risky.

To put it in Krugman's terms, the African nations have mostly committed the 'original sin' anyway, and this is a way of making a bad situation better. Italy was free of the original sin and was making a good situation worse by joining the EU.

Re:African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone by pgeorgi on Monday July 08, 2019 @03:57AM (#20380790)
> Italy was free of the original sin and was making a good situation worse by joining the EU.

"co-founding the EU" (but nevermind: EU and Eurozone aren't the same)