But nobody has said it would be impossible to build a big expensive electric sedan with high range. Nor did anyone say it would be impossible to build a wide coverage fastcharge network. Surely they are impressive feats, but not "thought to be impossible".
In fact, other companies have managed to build similar things. Today the Jaguar and Audi e-SUVs are competing with the Model X, in a few months the Porsche Taycan is competing with Model S, and the ChaDeMo charger network is the same size as the Supercharger one (both have 12,000 units deployed globally).
No.
> Camera-based autonomy.
That's among the reasons the former isn't true.
> $35k price point
That PR point has largely been abandoned. I mean, nominally they’ll still sell it to you if you jump through hoops, but they’ve deliberately made it less accessible because, as much as it was an important PR point, it was never really viable.
At this point I think it's clear that they have a high chance of succeeding.
And I think the core argument is correct: If you don't have a neural net that can estimate depth from cameras as well as a human, you don't have a viable FSD system. The classifications that the system has to do to actually implement all the requirements of true FSD, is way harder than what's needed to make Lidar redundant with cameras and radar. Lidar is a shortcut to get a proof-of-concept running when your vision system is too weak to actually do full FSD.
> as much as it was an important PR point, it was never really viable.
Of course it's viable. It's just a question of time. It's pretty silly to think that sommehow, right this year, batteries will stop falling in price and Tesla will find no other ways to continue to reduce costs.
I agree that this statement is probably correct. But they're assuming the positive outcome here, and we have no proof that's correct.
In fact, it may well turn out that the current approaches to autonomous driving using neural networks won't ever yield a viable FSD system. In fact I'd take that side of the bet, to be honest.
If you've got some spare time, go read some third party research on how cameras might actually be better. Lidar superiority is a myth. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.07179.pdf
The numbers actually show pseudo-LiDAR being worse in general and significantly worse at longer distances.
"it is plausible that image-based 3D object detection for autonomous vehicle will become a reality in the near future."
The issue isn't whether it works or not. The issue is whether you need LiDAR in the mix as well. And your paper says unequivocally that the answer is "yes we do".
here we go: > Best crash test ratings.
partly false. there are 30 cars in the same category. kias, hyundays you name it.
> Highest owner satisfaction.
partly false. only the model 3 got it. model s was dropped due to how crappy it is.
> First US-owned factory in China. Built in about 6 months.
false. it’s not built. and there are so many other corps out there that own china factories it’s not even funny.
> Willingness and ability to put auto-pilot on the road for consumers.
how many people died because of this?
> Better chip than Nvidia.
proven to be false.
> Top 2 auto battery supplier.
false. that would be Panasonic.
> Dramatically better battery efficiency.
false. same efficiency as a kia.
> No dealerships.
this is very bad.
> Plausible FSD story.
false. debunked.
> $35k price point.
false. they don’t sell $35k cars.
https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=NHTSA-2017-0037-0037
Model 3 not only the very best results, but by a wider margin.
And the last. Tesla absolutely sells a $35k Model 3: https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup
That's arguably false. Nvidia has a more powerful FSD chip. But performance/watt might be better for Teslas chip.
Is this also a joke? They've been doing impossible stuff for literally 10 years, there's plenty examples of people claiming so.
Consider this, there isn't a better car than the one they produced in 2012, and GM's best effort at an EV (the Bolt) lost somewhere between 4-8k per unit.
Aside from Autopilot and the everymans model 3, Tesla has delivered some pretty damn incredible tech that actually works in the real world. I would love to own a Model S, maybe when V2 comes out, I will be in a position to get one. Lets hope they still exist when that happens.
I personally don't understand why someone would wish for them to fail. Maybe to prove that how they feel about Elon was "right", who knows. I see some issues with autopilot coming to a head at some point. They are either going to deliver or have a giant rebate due at some point in the future. I don't see any other option. If I bought a car in 2018, and had to wait 4 years for a feature my car would be about used up(I drive about 26,000 miles a year).
Meanwhile they've done amazing things that most considered impossible. They went for it despite the difficulty and actually changed an industry. Electric cars were thought of as golf carts! Not so anymore. The idea of covering the country with chargers was a pipe dream. Now it's reality.
Here's hoping Telsa continues doing big things.