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Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by PeterisP on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @03:43AM (#19671834)
An approach that gives very similar results to yours but is more scientific is to multiply the initial estimates by e (2.718). Or, if you're conservative, then by pi.
Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by leethargo on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @03:51AM (#19671875)
The above approach uses the factor 2.2. Why would your factors be any better?
Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by anoncake on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @04:08AM (#19671947)
2.2 is just an arbitrary number.

e is also just an arbitrary number, but it looks like someone calculated it using sophisticated math.

Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by alexgmcm on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @03:59AM (#19671912)
Wouldn't it be 2.4 as you are adding 20% of the already doubled estimate?
Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by spurgu on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @04:54AM (#19672144)
Yes.
Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by ajuc on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @03:55AM (#19671894)
Nitpick: x * 2 * 1.2 == x * 2.4, not 2.2
Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by apaatsio on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @09:29AM (#19673374)
Extended nitpick: Technically, they only said "then add 20%". They didn't specify of what that 20% is. It's up to interpretation whether they mean 20% of the original value or the doubled value.
Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by skrebbel on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @04:24AM (#19672022)
Because e is more scientific.
Re:Why software projects take longer than you think – a stat... by TheOtherHobbes on Tuesday April 16, 2019 @06:21AM (#19672417)
Semi-seriously, e is a number defined by recursive growth.

So if you estimate to Level 1, and then break down to Level 2 sub-tasks, then Level 3, your estimate will be out by the same amount each time. and your total error will be a multiplicative series.

If you have an infinite number of levels - which is reasonable for most real-world projects, although this may not be obvious in the planning stages - e will get you nicely in the ballpark.