News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by AngryData on Saturday April 13, 2019 @12:52PM (#19654156)
As a bit of a side tract, this is happening to all modernized nations, only Japan is one of the few modern countries that isn't allowing enough legal immigrants to make up for the decline. The US also has a negative native population growth, but because the doom and disaster a negative growth rate would cause upon our current economic models we allow shit tons of legal immigration to maintain growth.
Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by greeneggs on Saturday April 13, 2019 @01:36PM (#19654477)
Can you cite your sources? It is especially important when you are making potentially provocative claims ("doom and disaster", "shit tons of legal immigration").

In (fiscal year) 2017, the US admitted 1.1 million immigrants, 1.2 million in 2016. [1] US population has been increasing at about 2.3 million per year [2].

[1] https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2017/tab...

[2] https://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table/by-yea...

Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by IkmoIkmo on Saturday April 13, 2019 @03:43PM (#19655303)
Two explanations for that.

1) is life expectancy. Suppose the average life expectancy is 40, and every two people have two children at age 20. Population would be stable. However, suppose nothing changes about fertility rates or replacement rates, but the life expectancy grows to say 60. You'll find that the population for some time will grow, merely because inflow (births) don't change, but outflow (deaths) are lower as they are delayed.

As such, population growth can occur despite a below-replacement rate fertility without any immigration.

2) Immigrants tend to be more fertile. Welcoming immigrants and then chalking up the subsequent population growth from their high-birth rate as being an example of the country having sufficiently high birth rates for population growth without immigration is faulty reasoning. Births in the US would've been a lot lower if it admitted no immigrants, particularly hispanic.

Fact is total fertility rates in the US are around 1.7 children per woman now, and are even lower for people who's families have been in the US for multiple generations (non-recent immigrants). US would be declining in population size this century if it wasn't for migration, ceteris paribus.

Similar story all over Europe. Just look at fertility rates of native-born populations and the necessary replacement rate, the former is typically below the latter. [0] Most OECD countries would be shrinking without immigration.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by sonnyblarney on Saturday April 13, 2019 @07:22PM (#19656423)
I think he's being a little sarcastic.

But negative population growth can lead to deflationary systems, and economists are very afraid of those.

In short: if you think you're going to have less customers, you don't invest or hire, and you might layoff, causing further negative data and sentiment, causing further downward pressure on economic activity. 'Death Spiral'. [1]

This is also partly why we keep inflation at 2% target, and not 0%.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflationary-spiral.asp

Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by irq11 on Saturday April 13, 2019 @01:14PM (#19654331)
Japan just passed a radical (for Japan) change to their immigration rules, to allow in more foreign workers in a number of low-skill categories. It’s also comparatively easy for skilled workers to get visas. (The bigger problem is making Japanese companies treat these workers as equals...but they’re coming around.)

Now, contrast to the current reactionary government of the United States, and their attitude toward immigration. The two countries are clearly moving in opposite directions.

Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by matvore on Saturday April 13, 2019 @02:00PM (#19654622)
Japan doesn't really need complex or quota-based immigration laws because foreigners are not super happy to live there forever once they've tried it. More so than legal barriers, there are cultural ones. And there are borders in our minds just as much as on maps (e.g. preconceptions that we're stubborn to let go of).

The US is different, of course. People like it here once they've arrived. I can't say why, nor do I buy the stereotype that US culture is more open or individualistic. But the US arguable needs laws quota-based and micro-managey, since they are managing a huge amount of people from more diverse backgrounds. Japan is managing fewer potential immigrants and guests, and most of their immigrants are geographically close to Japan.

Despite the immigration laws being easier to grok and less authoritarian on paper, Japan is pretty strict in its enforcement of those laws. Put all I've said together and I don't know if one country is more reactionary than the other, but I think both countries are moving toward a more balanced, less eccentric immigration system at the moment.

(why you should listen to me: I'm an American and lived in Japan for four years and had to go through the process of getting my wife a spouse visa 2 years into my stay. I dealt with immigration a few times. I went to many different cities and vacations and such, and talked to people that don't speak English and don't have a passport, so I have a representative sample set.)

Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by irq11 on Sunday April 14, 2019 @12:14AM (#19657576)
”Japan doesn't really need complex or quota-based immigration laws because foreigners are not super happy to live there forever once they've tried it.”

You’re just making things up now. People are clamoring to get into Japan. It’s one of the safest countries on earth, with one of the highest standards of living. Not to mention inexpensive health care and a surplus of good jobs. I lived there too, and personally saw the people trying to emigrate, from all over the world. And arguing that it used to be different misses the point: they’re becoming more open, and we’re closing off. It’s an indisputable fact.

”The US is different, of course. People like it here once they've arrived. I can't say why, nor do I buy the stereotype that US culture is more open or individualistic.”

If you think US culture is any less difficult to adapt to for an immigrant, you’re incredibly naive. It’s always hard. There’s nothing special about the US, except that we’ve been traditionally willing to accept immigrants. That, itself, is changing, and reactionary douchebags are making it a damned sight more scary and less welcoming by trying to protect the “different” way of life from the scary, scary foreigners.

Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by hrktb on Saturday April 13, 2019 @05:12PM (#19655777)
It should be mentionned that the jobs these low skilled immigrants are called for are extremely shitty (sometimes litteraly, as for elderly people personal care for instance) and desperatly low pay. It’s become a running joke to call it legal slavery.

If I remember well, the visa they get is bound to a specific activity, so for most the only legal way out of that situation will to give up on Japan altogether.

Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by lamarpye on Saturday April 13, 2019 @01:38PM (#19654491)
The US allows around 1 million legal immigrants every year. I don't see how this is moving an in opposite direction from Japan's recent changes.
Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by glhaynes on Saturday April 13, 2019 @01:44PM (#19654528)
We seem to be moving in a relatively less open-to-immigration direction while still currently taking a large absolute number of immigrants.
Re:Japan's working population drops further - and the number... by autokad on Saturday April 13, 2019 @03:08PM (#19655094)
doesn't NYC have more foreign born immigrants (3 m) than all of Japan (2.23 m)?