On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf]

Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by hopelessgoat on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @01:27PM (#19617013)

Psychoanalytic philosopher Slavoj Žižek says that beyond these three categories there is a fourth, the unknown known, that which we intentionally refuse to acknowledge that we know: "If Rumsfeld thinks that the main dangers in the confrontation with Iraq were the 'unknown unknowns', that is, the threats from Saddam whose nature we cannot even suspect, then the Abu Ghraib scandal shows that the main dangers lie in the "unknown knowns"—the disavowed beliefs, suppositions and obscene practices we pretend not to know about, even though they form the background of our public values."

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by tsunamifury on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @03:05PM (#19617925)

I believe in that speech Žižek was just referring to assumptions -- i.e. the things we don't know we assumed, but are acting on subconsciously. The famous slide of how to invade Iraq made the invasion look simple and definable -- but in fact that assumption proved very wrong.

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by opportune on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @03:45PM (#19618263)

" just referring to assumptions -- i.e. the things we don't know we assumed, but are acting on subconsciously"

This is much, much more than "just assumption" to Zizek. In fact, this is what he refers to as ideology and it's basically the main subject he is known for

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by tsunamifury on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @04:21PM (#19618566)

Sure, assumptions are shorthand ideology for the brain.

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by ghda on Wednesday April 10, 2019 @03:57AM (#19622707)

Invading Iraq was easy, the problems all arose at the “okay, now what?” level.

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by dredmorbius on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @04:03PM (#19618415)

That's part of the classic formulation, which dates to the 1960s, and which I first encountered in the 1980s in print. It's effectively a "consultant's matrix' of "known" and "unknown", giving a matrix of four elements: {KK, KU, UK, UU}.

The notion of unknown knowns strongly resembles the apocryphal Mark Twain quote; "It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so". (There's no apparent proof he'd said or written this.)

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/11/18/know-trouble/

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by _1tan on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @02:39PM (#19617710)

Care to share the source? Thanks in advance.

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by Jtsummers on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @03:07PM (#19617952)

http://www.lacan.com/zizekrumsfeld.htm

They just quoted the wikipedia article (without attribution). It, in turn, cites the link above.

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by iscrewyou on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @12:56PM (#19616653)

Reading that quote by Rumsfeld only reminded me of Joey Fromm friends: https://youtu.be/LUN2YN0bOi8

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by apocalypstyx on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @01:12PM (#19616825)

Worst, however, may be the unknown knowns.

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[dead]

Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by stcredzero on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @02:45PM (#19617777)

And this is Rumsfeld's only positive contribution to society: A pithy little "(un)known/(un)known" quip

It's hardly original to him. It's a negative contribution, as a lot of dimwitted people disavowed the idea of unknown unknowns after he said that. It's actually a valuable concept.

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by stevesimmons on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @04:30PM (#19618638)

A more useful quip of his, in my opinion, is: "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time."

I find it a useful reminder at work when approaching projects with a team of mixed ability...

(I'll refrain from commenting on other aspects of his legacy.)

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Re:On the difficulty of predicting the future (2001) [pdf] by abdulhaq on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @12:49PM (#19616589)

Yes I just can't see it happening.

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