In my experience doctors are terrible at this, although it's supposed to be basically their entire job. I really think they should get more training in it, or some type of Bayes-esque tool to make what they're thinking explicit.

> really think they should get more training in it, or some type of Bayes-esque tool

They have those online. If you're in your 30s and have a reasonably healthy lifestyle and don't smoke, then your risk of dying from a cardiac event over a ten year period is likely somewhere between 0.25% and 0.5%, depending on how much you exercise and genetic factors.

If anything, Bayesian logic is what leads doctors to ignore signs of heart attacks in young people in the first place.

But the reality is the patients don't understand the numbers, and in the OPs case a % risk doesn't mean much if it happens to you.

My wife's current psychiatrist is awesome at this - he quotes the scientific literature for relative risk levels when talking about medicine changes or interactions.