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Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by thatoneuser on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:15AM (#18862455)
Maybe predictions were off for reasons the article says, but the article woefully misses the biggest factor in why the “gig economy” (cringe) won’t be as big as we originally thought - you can only pay sub minimum wage for so long before people say fuck it and walk away flipping you off.

These companies provided very little as far as tech revolution. They mostly rely on cutting wages and offputting risk/liability/taxes/benefits onto the workers. That’s a business model that’s doomed to fail. The word we’re looking for is “greed”.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @06:59AM (#18864076)
You can only win as a "gig economy" as long as you find a weak spot (a.k.a loophole) in regulations and use it. That loophole will close, and the business will either need to expand or converge to a traditional business of the kind it displaced. AirBnB will be like any other apartment rental place. Uber will be (and is already in many places) like any other Taxi company. It should be called the "loophole upstart economy". What they do is grow at a breakneck sped into an area where there is regulation that can be abused. The trick is to grow so fast that regulation can't keep up (in the US you can even grow so fast that eventually you'll be big enough to lobby your own regulation).

As an example: In Stockholm where there are no Taxi mediallions (anyone can be a taxi or car hire service in any way they want as long as they regiser and comply with insurance, standardized meters, and other regulations) and the competition alreay has new cars, app-based booking etc - there is precious little margin for Uber to cut from, compared to a city with medallions, cab shortages, ancient taxi companies that don't offer app hauling/prepayment etc.

So how can Uber make a killing in Stockholm? Answer: they find another regulation to work around. Tax regulation. Taxis are required to enter all fares into the meter and that's reported to tax authorities. Uber drivers are supposed to enter the rides themselves into the meter after completing. The kicker is: there is a huge incentive for the individual driver to under-report the fares, and that incentive also helps Uber. This being revealed will obviously now mean that Uber will be forced to pay an estimated and much higher tax, and the drivers won't be trusted to do this themselves in the fuuture. And this will only mean one thing: Uber will pack up and leave. There is no way they can be competitive (to the extent their investors will want) without breaking either Tax law or Labor laws.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Erwin on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @08:18AM (#18864457)
After Uber exited the Danish market, the Danish tax authority received details (from the Dutch tax authorities) of whom Uber actually paid. It turned out 99% of the drivers did not put that income on their electronic tax forms.

Uber's statement was that the individual drivers are responsible for that sort of thing. Wink, wink.

What's worse 75% of them were receiving various types of government money for unemployed people (which are supposed to be decreased if are able to find a job).

Uber is planning to return to the Danish market -- the Danish spokesperson says they will return "with integrity".

AirBnb however has agreed to automated reporting of who receives rental income in Denmark. If you agree to automatic reporting as a landlord, you get a certain tax discount.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by ryanwaggoner on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:32AM (#18865407)
Why is it Uber’s responsibility though? Why is this different from how restaurant servers are required to report their cash tips, but basically none of them do? Should we blame the servers, the restaurant owner, the government, all of them, no one?
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by rchaud on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:17PM (#18866534)
Restaurants are responsible for reporting the formal wages paid by the restaurant to the staff, which can be counted, tracked and reported to the IRS.

Cash tips paid to the server are essentially invisible to the employer. This is an accepted trade-off in a system where restaurants can pay below minimum wage.

An Uber customer cannot pay cash. They pay Uber first (fare + optional tip) and Uber in turn pays the drivers. So they know with 100% certainty how much money is changing hands. For a company that is worth literally billions, having a basic financial reporting system that calculates the government's cut is not some kind of overbearing regulatory hassle.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by thatoneuser on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @11:33AM (#18866040)
That industry shouldn’t exist the way it does either imho. It’s wrought with tax evasion itself. And minimum wage needs to be respected.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by ryanwaggoner on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @11:54AM (#18866284)
I completely agree, but again, are we mad at restaurants for following the law when the servers are the ones breaking it?
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by michaelmrose on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @08:48PM (#18870851)
The servers in states which allow below minimum wage for tipped employees is keeping servers near starvation wages if not for state benefits and undeclared tips.

The "market" rate is partially set based on those assumptions because employees wouldn't be able to live on what they are paid thus the labor force and thus the company would collapse without an increase in wages.

In both cases its a transfer of wealth from the middle class to relatively rich owners.

The extra cash helps for when business is slow and the server has to report they made the minimum wage to the employer anyway because the employer is responsible for ensuring that the server makes state minimum if the wage plus tips doesn't equal such. Basically the employer will just fire people who make the employer actually do this.

It also helps cover the foregone wages when the employee is working through breaks and lunches even though the half hour lunch is deducted from the employees pay.

In short employers sometimes pay as little as $2 an hour x 24 hours per week.

Since nobody on earth can live on $200 a month some combination of tips from you, government benefits paid for by you, and second or third jobs makes survival possible.

Most of us are not terribly concerned if the server is paying taxes properly and are concerned that the business is basically welfare for inefficient businesses who should probably go under.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:27PM (#18866643)
The equivalent here would be if waiters were given incentive to not report the whole check to the tax authority, never mind the tip.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Jommi on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:11AM (#18865233)
Would love to get a source on that 99% figure!
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by ninju on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:39AM (#18865489)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-denmark-tax/denmark-...

The new checks were based on information Denmark had received from the Dutch authorities, where Uber’s European headquarter is based.

Danish tax authorities said in a statement they had checked 1,195 Uber drivers’ tax reports and of those 1,192 have had their tax changed now.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by ryanwaggoner on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:35AM (#18865443)
Uber is a better example. Airbnb is a different case in my view. Vacation rentals have been around for forever, and they were pretty terrible before Airbnb. When I used VRBO back in 2006 or so, it wasn’t horrible but wasn’t amazing. And the market was fragmented and inefficient. Airbnb basically made it so easy to both rent out space and rent space from others that it grew the market very dramatically in a short period of time. So much so that it exposed a lot of problems that weren’t present before with a few hard-to-book vacation rentals here and there.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:47AM (#18865577)
Yes, the difference I think is that AirBnB has grown so big it actually changed neighborhoods and accomodation markets in a way we didn't see before. The question becomes the same as for Uber in some sense: once a single company professionally rents out all the flats in a highrise building, what makes them different from a hotel and why do they get to dodge expensive regulations and inspections that hotels need? Their business model is being an apartment hotel and not admitting it.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by ryanwaggoner on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @11:59AM (#18866339)
But again, Airbnb doesn’t own or rent those units, or choose to put them on the market. Should they only allow a certain percentage of units in a particular building or neighborhood to be rented out? How is that fair to marginal apartment owner who also wants to rent their space out?

I think Airbnb could do a better job of working with cities to ensure that negative externalities don’t poison the well. But I don’t hold them responsible for the tsunami of demand on both sides of this market. It seems pretty clear that people really, really want this, and I don’t think the right answer is “too bad, stay in an overpriced chain hotel”

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:31PM (#18866683)
AirBnB rents those units out if they have a nontrivial gain from it. That they merely provide the service doesn’t seem important. Same with Uber - doesn’t matter who owns th cars or whether they claim to not employ anyone. They are a large taxi operator and the drivers should have employee benefits (as was ruled in many places already).
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Jommi on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:11AM (#18865230)
How do you know this much about the market?
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:23AM (#18865331)
About the Stockholm Taxi market? I live there and follow local news, and have some interest in the area, that's it. Regular taxi drivers aren't paid that much and those companies offer everything Uber offers: app haul/pay, nice cars and so on, so if Uber don't have an edge anywhere either legally, technologically or economically (e.g use contractors instead of employees, be the only one to offer nice apps, have greater scale scale, adaptive pricing) then they aren't going to make a large margin. I might be wrong though but this is my guess. Companies that have good margins without tax fraud tend to not do tax fraud.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Jommi on Thursday January 10, 2019 @06:16AM (#18873056)
Don't you have to pay high startup costs to be a driver in stockholm?

As far as I know it's a completely different setup with Taxi companies and their hired drivers that work on comission, compared to Uber that works with private contractors.

Do you need a company to start earning money as a cab driver?

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Thursday January 10, 2019 @07:11AM (#18873288)
Startup costs depends on what way you do it. Own company would be most expensive but a regular taxi driver just works for one of the big taxi companies and owns their car or shares it with someone to het higher utilization.

Simplest and cheapest with least risk (and least profit) would be working for an established company using a car owned by someone else.

Note that in Stockholm Uber is a regular licensed taxi company. Any taxi company can operate like Uber and vice versa.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Jommi on Friday January 11, 2019 @03:27AM (#18881811)
So all someone needs to drive in Sweden is this Taxi Driver license? Then they can just jump in their car and start earning?
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Friday January 11, 2019 @03:52AM (#18881891)
Yes. It's a driver job like any other (bus license for bus, taxi license for taxi, truck license for trucks...). Most companies probably have cars unused at times. E.g. if you are a student and want to make some extra money it's usually easy to get a weekend job using someone elses car when that driver is off anyway. That way you can make some money without a big investment in a car.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Jommi on Friday January 11, 2019 @04:35PM (#18887332)
so you can't just drive your own car? That's exactly what Uber is about.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by alkonaut on Friday January 11, 2019 @04:57PM (#18887569)
You can use any car as a taxi, but to use for commercial driving your car needs to be just that - a taxi. So you’d spend say $1-2k to register it as a taxi (new license plates, install a meter).

So there are hundreds of taxi companies and Uber is just one and like all the others. Uber cars are registered with the vehicle authority as taxis and have regular meters.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Jommi on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @07:53AM (#18910785)
So I just checked this out and you are a bitoff Here is what Uber lists as requirements: https://www.uber.com/en-SE/drive/requirements/

Meaning that you can either:

1. Get taxi driver license and driver for a fleet for a certain % to take home. This basically means that Uber is just one of the systems you use to get customers.

2. Get a taxi driver license, a sole trader company (1 person company) and a taxi operating license. This means you are a contractor for Uber, and pay the 25% comission. --> You do not need a meter --> You do need a specific insurance for taxi business.

So basically if Uber runs a fleet of contractors, it's massively more important than having taxi companies that operate phone-based (as well as app-based) ordering systems. They have massively more overhead than the tiny operations office that Uber needs to operate in any certain city.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by frankydp on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:46AM (#18862595)
The entire model is labor arbitrage, with any employer obligation/cost removed.

When nonprofits pop up to help gig workers determine if they are actually making any income, the business plans seems pretty obvious.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by jfoutz on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @03:06AM (#18863127)
It seems like you're leaving out a bit about information asymmetry. maybe multi billon dollar companies don't have any extra facts that aren't available to somebody in the 'gig economy' but this [1] keeps ringing a bell.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Market_for_Lemons

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by thatoneuser on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @03:43AM (#18863278)
Oh totally. Hell, lyft and Uber straight up withhold information for the explicit purpose of coaxing workers to do work they wouldn’t otherwise do.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by ithinkinstereo on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @04:14AM (#18863418)
A hallmark of a scam is unnecessary obfuscation and complexity in the business model (i.e., how you get paid).
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by barry-cotter on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @05:49AM (#18863795)
It’s not entirely arbitraging labour costs or paying low wages. Look at Uber or Lyft. You can come to work whenever you want, for as long as you want, as often as you want as long as you have a good enough car. The convenience beats working at McDonald’s comfortably. I’m sure some of these companies were working off of new people realising it was a bad deal but there’s no way Uber or Lyft are. People aren’t reliably, exploitable stupid over long time periods.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by DanBC on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @06:06AM (#18863856)
> People aren’t reliably, exploitable stupid over long time periods.

They don't have to be stupid to be exploitable. They just have to be in a desparate situation.

In England people who claim unemployment benefit (Universal Credit (UC)) will lose that benefit if they refuse to take gig economy jobs. They're forced into these jobs by the state.

And then, because of the way UC works they are forced to work as many hours as possible. The flexible bit doesn't work for them because UC doesn't work well for people doing variable hours part time.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmwo...

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/mar/25/universal-cr...

https://www.ftadviser.com/protection/2018/03/29/meeting-the-...

https://www.litrg.org.uk/sites/default/files/Gig%20economy%2...

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by thatoneuser on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @11:36AM (#18866070)
Wowwww. Having to drive lyft or die - sounds like hell.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by DanBC on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @02:32PM (#18867965)
Conditionality isn't a bad thing. This particular version of conditionality, combined with cuts to housing benefit,combined with the hostile regime around benefits in general, mean people are suffering as a result. Importantly it's not saving any money.

It's not having to drive lyft or die.

It's about being forced to drive for lyft, and still lose your income, and lose your home.

It's not being able to predict your income from one month to the next, which puts you at risk of losing your home because you can't pay rent and the state keeps paying you weird amounts because of the way that benefit works.

We've seen huge rises in street homeless numbers. In 2007 we had about 500 people in the UK sleeping on the street. Today that's over 4,000 people.

In 2017 over 30,000 single parent families (the kind who should benefit most from the flexibility of zero hours and gig economy) were made homeless.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by orf on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @06:45AM (#18864014)
People on unemployment benefit are denied those benefits if they turn down employment?

Oh no!

While I'm not saying these gigs are exactly long term careers it's better for the state and for the person than not working.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by DanBC on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @07:14AM (#18864144)
In England you can claim UC while working, if you do less than 16 hours per week and less than (I think) £120.50 per week.

This is a route back into employment for people who've spent years out of work. The intent is to provide a ramp from "no work, full benefits", though "some work, some benefits", to "full time paid employment, no benefits". (in fact, with tax credits, many people in full time (over 16 hours per week) work are also getting state benefits).

This ramp is broken by the gig economy because zero-hours contracts make it impossible for the state to know how much top-up benefit to pay month to month. This plunges people into debt and poverty.

The gig economy employers benefit because they don't have to pay a lving wage, they don't need to compete for workers by offering sensible wages.

This is an unintented distortion of the free-market. If you believe in free markets you should wish to see the end of this distortion.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by ryanwaggoner on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:41AM (#18865520)
I’m not saying that we shouldn’t have a social safety net, but the “distortion” in the free markets here is the UC benefits, not a contract gig that lets the worker decide whether they want to work 0 hours per week or 100 hours per week or anything in between. That’s pretty free market to my ears, and having a sharp public benefits cliff that starts at 0 hours instead of 16 is the source of the distortion.

Instead of blaming Uber for having work available for people who want to only do a few hours per week (or who can’t do more for whatever reason), why not blame the government for not updating their rules to better fit the actual reality on the ground?

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by DanBC on Friday January 11, 2019 @01:56PM (#18885859)
So, a follow up is this court case victory announced today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46834533

> Four working single mothers have won a High Court challenge over the government's universal credit scheme.

> They argued a "fundamental problem" with the system meant their monthly payments varied "enormously", leaving them out of pocket and struggling financially

Note that these are working mothers.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by DanBC on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @02:38PM (#18868027)
Uber can't have it all ways. At the moment Uber are exploiting the market to get paid employees, but without having to offer them the protections they'd normally have, and without all the tax and NI payments either.

US companies really need to understand the English concept of "taking the piss".

No-one expects companies to pay all their tax and obey the law all the time. What they do expect is that companies do not take the piss. Uber is taking the piss, and they're going to be regulated if they don't make changes.

> blame the government for not updating their rules

I'm doing that too.

[dead]
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by watwut on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @03:51AM (#18863322)
It is their decision to take advantage of it. Moreover, most of these companies did disseminated and promoted half-truths and falsehood about how much people will earn and what costs are offloaded. When you knowingly manipulate people or lie to them, you have no business to complain when someone else comes in and talks openly about you not being truthful.

People criticising and blaming companies eager for taking advantage of either naive or uninformed people is how the economic system becomes less vulnerable and how people learn what to be careful off. Openly criticizing these companies is how next workers become informed about traps like this.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by kopos on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:02AM (#18865146)
Interestingly, in India, Uber paid drivers upwards of $1700, in in the initial 1-2 years, as incentives to get them onto the platform. Drivers took loans and mortgages to buy cars which they couldn't pay after the incentives were taken off.

Lot of drivers went into debts and sold away their cars. The market has probably more stabilized now.

But inspite of all the talk of tech, we are still looking at these platforms taking 25%-30%.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by Pristina on Thursday January 10, 2019 @01:50AM (#18872029)
It's each individual's own responsibility to consider all information before deciding to partake in any activity. failure to do so is their own fault.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by johnchristopher on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @04:24AM (#18863456)
Neither can governments that promotes the uber-economy then. Or, god forbids, they are accomplices ?! /s
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by devoply on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @04:59AM (#18863610)
They can exist as long as there is exploitable cheap labor willing to work for peanuts with no job protection or benefits. As soon as there are real jobs everyone would leave such companies in droves... and their business model would collapse. In order for such a company to exist you need an indentured lower class that's barely surviving and has very little ability to lift itself up. In another words from a societal perspective such companies an anathema to be eliminated, not cheered on.
Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by expertentipp on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @05:15AM (#18863667)
> exploitable cheap labor

> indentured lower class that's barely surviving and has very little ability to lift itself up

Thriving poverty industry and a steady stream of immigrants who have to start from the bottom of the visa/stay permission hierarchy ensures that at any time, there exist a solid share of a society qualifying as such. It's trivial also to embitter these two groups (domestic and incoming) onto each other.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by zozbot123 on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @08:50AM (#18864626)
> you can only pay sub minimum wage for so long before people say fuck it and walk away flipping you off.

That's exactly what the article is saying, though. Informal work arrangements (the gig economy) take off when unemployment is high due to a big recession; but when labor markets are tight (and unemployment is really, really low right now) traditional, formalized work is a lot more attractive.

Re:How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong by coldtea on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @05:26AM (#18863713)
>you can only pay sub minimum wage for so long before people say fuck it and walk away flipping you off.

Not if your other palls in different industries and politics help deprive them of better options...