Re:Tech Unicorns Are Going Public at Near-Record Pace
by jklein11 on Wednesday December 19, 2018 @03:07PM
(#18719034)
A model isn't a crystal ball, it is a way of formally describing something using mathematics. A model could tell you that a specific set of conditions that preceded a recession have occurred again. One example of this would be an inverted yield curve.[1]
A recession is when an economy declines for at least six months.[2] I guess the best predictor of a recession is 5.5 months of negative growth.
1. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yi... 2. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-recession-3306019
Re:Tech Unicorns Are Going Public at Near-Record Pace
by amelius on Thursday December 20, 2018 @08:01AM
(#18724517)
You probably missed the word "obvious" in my comment. I was just saying that if economists don't predict a recession, then the chances are pretty low that parent-poster could successfully predict one based on intuition only.
Re:Tech Unicorns Are Going Public at Near-Record Pace
by rifung on Wednesday December 19, 2018 @03:12PM
(#18719093)
> I'm sure economists/data-scientists have models for that, and if there would be any obvious sign, we would know it by now.
There certainly are people with models. The problem is there are way more occurrences of people using some model to say a crash is imminent than there are crashes.
I'm sure economists/data-scientists have models for that, and if there would be any obvious sign, we would know it by now.