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Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by shard972 on Monday September 17, 2018 @07:38AM (#18004907)
You do realize issues about immigration aren't just about jobs, its about having a home. Maybe it's too hard for the rootless masses on HN to understand what its like being rooted in an area over generations to just watch it become a foreign country within a decade.

Then to be told if only you cared more about climate change everything would be fine...

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by bildung on Monday September 17, 2018 @09:12AM (#18005573)
> You do realize issues about immigration aren't just about jobs, its about having a home. Maybe it's too hard for the rootless masses on HN to understand what its like being rooted in an area over generations to just watch it become a foreign country within a decade.

The amusing thing in the case of Germany is that the country never really was a real nation with a unifying culture etc (like e.g. France). Having only been unified in 1871, it was a hodgepodge of dukedoms for centuries. It's for example completely arbitrary that Bavaria became part of Germany but Austria didn't. To this day there is no unifying culture to speak of, e.g. the stereotypical German-Bavarian would scoff at "traditional" food from Northern Germany and vice versa. It was migration, immigration and arbitrarily drawn borders since practically forever. Many inhabitants of northern Germany have slavic surnames, because half of the local population has been wiped out in the Thirty Years' War, with immigrants replacing the dead. We don't even have a common religous tradition.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by bryanlarsen on Monday September 17, 2018 @07:53AM (#18004985)
Opposition against immigration is highest in areas with very little immigration, and support for it is highest in areas with a lot of it.
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by Rubinsalamander on Monday September 17, 2018 @08:24AM (#18005192)
Which kinda makes sense. Why would you life in an area with high Immigration if you dont Like/Support it. You would have to look at the data of people living in areas where Immigration just begins/recently started to see if they are happy about it
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by bryanlarsen on Monday September 17, 2018 @09:25AM (#18005701)
Internal immigration flows fairly closely correlate with external immigration flows. In other words, people are moving from areas of low immigration to areas of high immigration, not the other way around.
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by Rubinsalamander on Monday September 17, 2018 @10:25AM (#18006191)
My point was: Are people who live in an area for a long time happy if a low immigration area turns into a high immigration area.

High immigration(besides nearby catastrophes) usually means something good happended to the area. So people can have the same overall happiness but for different reasons.

For example: Job opportunities are better now, Property prices are rising(Great my home is worth more), but it feels less at home then before.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by mschuster91 on Monday September 17, 2018 @08:46AM (#18005384)
> You would have to look at the data of people living in areas where Immigration just begins/recently started to see if they are happy about it

I live in Munich. Aside from exorbitant rents caused by politicians ignoring housing issues for decades, we don't have a significant problem w/ immigrants and refugees. We do have a couple Nazi groups (two different Pegida groups, plus the "old" NPD nazi party plus the AfD neo-fash) with maybe two dozen people on the streets, but no one except Antifa gives a flying f..k about them.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by Rubinsalamander on Monday September 17, 2018 @09:39AM (#18005802)
The exorbitant rents were the reason i didnt move to Munich, but Nuremberg. Rent is a Gatekeeper though, only "succesfull" people can afford to live there. The conflict seems to be more about gentrification.

Also i personally dont know anybody who got negatively affected (besides closed school Gyms) by the refugee crisis, but many worry anyways. Probaly Social Media makes it feel worse then it is,similar to people feeling less safe now despite way lower crime rates.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by SketchySeaBeast on Monday September 17, 2018 @10:21AM (#18006148)
> Maybe it's too hard for the rootless masses on HN to understand what its like being rooted in an area over generations to just watch it become a foreign country within a decade.

I can't remember the exact number, but the majority population feels threatened when the non-majority reaches some like 5-10% of the total population. When you feel threatened, the minority population isn't exactly overwhelming. America has had this kind of xenophobia before. Irish, Italians, Ukranians, Jews, it's all the same noise, and it turns out the same - you still have America, it's just a little different, a little more culturally complex. And don't give me that whole "but they aren't integrating" shtick. They may not integrate easily, but 2 generations from now their grand kids will be as American as anybody.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by mikeash on Monday September 17, 2018 @10:05AM (#18006015)
Immigration is just about the most American thing there is. If you think having a bunch of immigrants move in makes the area “a foreign country” then you have no idea what this country is even about. If being around different ethnicities bothers you, then I suggest returning to your ancestral homeland.
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by Jonnax on Monday September 17, 2018 @09:42AM (#18005828)
So it's racism then?

Because if it was white people moving into their hometowns then you/they wouldn't feel like a foreigner.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by dsfyu404ed on Monday September 17, 2018 @10:06AM (#18006020)
Most people mostly don't care so long as the new residents don't gentrify the crap out of the place.

White people tend to be the biggest offenders in the gentrification regard but people tend to take it out on the newcomers who are visibly different from them so in white communities it because an "immigration problem" and in nonwhite communities it becomes a "gentrification problem".

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by mschuster91 on Monday September 17, 2018 @08:29AM (#18005241)
> to just watch it become a foreign country within a decade.

Jeez, that's basically directly quoted out of the conspiracy theory playbook ("Umvolkung"). Germany has 5% Muslims and people whine about Islamization.

It's bollocks fueled by media. When media and politicians does nothing but draw migrants or "foreign" people as problems, then you'll see the non-whites on the streets automatically, subconsciously, as a problem. THIS is why the Nazi rhetoric and framing is so dangerous.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by petre on Monday September 17, 2018 @12:12PM (#18007219)
Switzerland has a immigration ceilings and annual quotas.

https://blog.kpmg.ch/swiss-immigration-recent-developments-o...

This is how immigration should be handled.

[dead]
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by dang on Tuesday September 18, 2018 @03:04AM (#18013155)
Race war will get you banned here. Ditto religious flamewar. Please keep such tropes off HN.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by kristjansson on Tuesday September 18, 2018 @01:37AM (#18012737)
You’re suggesting a subgroup will increase tenfold in two generations, assuming that the majority population stays roughly constant. That implies a birthrate of something like 9 children per woman, maintained for two generations. Meanwhile every bit of sociological evidence shows that increases in income and living standard reduces total fertility.
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by mkaziz on Monday September 17, 2018 @10:44AM (#18006352)
The rate is high enough that in two generations they'll go from 5% to 51%?
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by turtlecloud on Tuesday September 18, 2018 @01:20AM (#18012658)
Doesn’t seem too far fetched.

If a Muslim family on avg has kids around early 20s and have about 3kids each vs avg European family starting in early 30s and having 1 kid on avg..

In 60 yrs - Muslim pop will have 8x while European population will be at 1.75x

If Muslims are at 5%, they will then turn to 25% of population vs 75% Germans after 60 years.

The population change is exponential.

A lot of things that change you won’t even notice until it’s too late.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by mschuster91 on Tuesday September 18, 2018 @02:54AM (#18013103)
> The population change is exponential.

That assumes that reproduction rate stays constant. Fact is: after the second generation, reproduction rate is only a tiny bit above the one of the "host country" (per http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/demografische-stud...).

The reason is that while first generation women usually stay at home and care for kids, second and following generation women go to universities and then into jobs which means delayed childbirth and less kids overall (because each kid means a drop in career). In addition, Germany has easy and cheap access to family planning - everything from pill and condoms over "plan b pill" to abortions - than typical "origin countries", further lowering the rate of unwanted pregnancies.

Altogether, the "Umvolkung" theory is utter bullshit spewed out especially by the Identitäre Bewegung neo nazis.

Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by mkaziz on Tuesday September 18, 2018 @10:09AM (#18015432)
Also the birth rate of the source population (Syria) is 2.5x. Germany is 1.5x. It's not really that far apart. Between that and the drop in the birth rate after the first generation, and the conversion out of Islam that will start happening as later generations assimilate and intermarry with locals, I doubt if there will be a substantial change in the Muslim population over the long term.
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by BenjaminBlair on Monday September 17, 2018 @10:50AM (#18006411)
The demographic crisis has a lot to do with economics, Europeans choosing to have (if have at all) children later in life. And we need to acknowledge the fact that Merkel did accept a lot of immigrants fleeing from war in middle-east, no thanks to western policies there. I really don't think that religion is the issue here.
Re:Ten years after the crisis, the contagion has spread to d... by BenjaminBlair on Monday September 17, 2018 @08:15AM (#18005106)
But isn't it a problem of integration? Globalization did happen and open borders were celebrated both culturally and economically. I understand that people care about their neighborhood, but I think it has a lot to do about safety. If the immigrants do get lower waged jobs or don't get jobs at all, or if it's harder for them to get equal opportunities then, even if it's definitely wrong, crime becomes the solution. And that's what needs to be addressed.