Switzerland has a immigration ceilings and annual quotas.

https://blog.kpmg.ch/swiss-immigration-recent-developments-o...

This is how immigration should be handled.

Race war will get you banned here. Ditto religious flamewar. Please keep such tropes off HN.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

You’re suggesting a subgroup will increase tenfold in two generations, assuming that the majority population stays roughly constant. That implies a birthrate of something like 9 children per woman, maintained for two generations. Meanwhile every bit of sociological evidence shows that increases in income and living standard reduces total fertility.

The rate is high enough that in two generations they'll go from 5% to 51%?

Doesn’t seem too far fetched.

If a Muslim family on avg has kids around early 20s and have about 3kids each vs avg European family starting in early 30s and having 1 kid on avg..

In 60 yrs - Muslim pop will have 8x while European population will be at 1.75x

If Muslims are at 5%, they will then turn to 25% of population vs 75% Germans after 60 years.

The population change is exponential.

A lot of things that change you won’t even notice until it’s too late.

> The population change is exponential.

That assumes that reproduction rate stays constant. Fact is: after the second generation, reproduction rate is only a tiny bit above the one of the "host country" (per http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/demografische-stud...).

The reason is that while first generation women usually stay at home and care for kids, second and following generation women go to universities and then into jobs which means delayed childbirth and less kids overall (because each kid means a drop in career). In addition, Germany has easy and cheap access to family planning - everything from pill and condoms over "plan b pill" to abortions - than typical "origin countries", further lowering the rate of unwanted pregnancies.

Altogether, the "Umvolkung" theory is utter bullshit spewed out especially by the Identitäre Bewegung neo nazis.

Also the birth rate of the source population (Syria) is 2.5x. Germany is 1.5x. It's not really that far apart. Between that and the drop in the birth rate after the first generation, and the conversion out of Islam that will start happening as later generations assimilate and intermarry with locals, I doubt if there will be a substantial change in the Muslim population over the long term.

The demographic crisis has a lot to do with economics, Europeans choosing to have (if have at all) children later in life. And we need to acknowledge the fact that Merkel did accept a lot of immigrants fleeing from war in middle-east, no thanks to western policies there. I really don't think that religion is the issue here.