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Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by salawat on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:02PM (#17935850)
No. Not as the root cause.

I mean it's definitely a contributing factor, but only because of the axioms that drive our definition of a good company.

The ideal company is seen as an investment vehicle that creates shareholder value. Full stop.

We don't measure well performance of a company in terms of hiring people. Nor do we even measure it in how well they do what they are there to do. It always getsmeasured in value returned to investors. Investors are generally not laborers in this day and age. And any company that can make more long term by automating and dumping the need for laborers will.

You can blame Automation all you want, but it's something far more basic that makes automation a worthy goal in the first place.

And no, neither automation nor the incentives that make it desirable are "easy" problems to fix.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by savanaly on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:16PM (#17935962)
>We don't measure well performance of a company in terms of hiring people.

I feel like you're implying we should. But people having to work is a cost, both to the company and to society as a whole. It's like suggesting we measure the effectiveness of an engine by how much smoke it emits. The measure of an engine is the power it's generating, and the measure of a company is whether it can produce something that's more highly valued than the sum of costs, an attribute that is pretty tightly knit to shareholder value (certain modern era tech companies notwithstanding...).

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by stormbrew on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:21PM (#17936016)
I didn't see a value judgement in GP's post, more a highlighting of the conflict between structuring corporations around maximizing shareholder value on one hand and society placing life or death value on full employment on the other.

Where you land on how that conflict should resolve is going to depend on your views.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by airstrike on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:46PM (#17936204)
Full employment is not a goal. Our society's goal is to ensure people have access to goods and services. Unfortunately, that's hard to optimize for, so we optimize for full employment as a proxy.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by 394549 on Friday September 07, 2018 @02:00PM (#17936322)
> Full employment is not a goal. Our society's goal is to ensure people have access to goods and services. Unfortunately, that's hard to optimize for, so we optimize for full employment as a proxy.

I disagree, at least if democracy is also a goal. Full employment gives individual citizens economic power to go with their political power. Merely "ensur[ing] people have access to goods and services" turns them into economically disempowered dependents.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by philipkglass on Friday September 07, 2018 @02:37PM (#17936619)
In the USA, the 65-and-over age group appears to have significantly more political power than the 18-to-24 age group, even though the latter group is much more likely to be employed. The explanation seems straightforward: older people vote at significantly higher rates than young people. In fact the economic dependency of older people seems to be a rallying cry for considering their interests; both parties will invoke "grandmothers living on fixed incomes" when they want to promote or oppose some broader policy.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by pixl97 on Saturday September 08, 2018 @11:48AM (#17941342)
Eh, you're incorrectly doing a temporal shift here....

The older group were workers. They earned income. They invested it, and now are attempting to maintain control of their investments with the last power they have, voting.

Those same young people that have jobs now, that put it in retirement, will be the old people investing in the future.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by craftyguy on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:31PM (#17936097)
A smoking engine has a cost, it's just not an immediate dollar amount. The cost is impact to surrounding environment, and public health.

I believe the same cost also applies to companies. There can be (and almost always is) an environmental, societal, etc cost.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by Spooky23 on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:18PM (#17935995)
The goal of society should be to maximize employment.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by jjeaff on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:37PM (#17936127)
Really? I'd rather maximize quality of life.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by airstrike on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:47PM (#17936208)
No, it shouldn't. The goal of society is to maximize access to goods and services. Employment is just a simpler proxy to optimize for, but there's a difference between the two.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by fiter on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:27PM (#17936066)
Is there any particular reason you think this should be the goal of society?
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by brandonmenc on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:55PM (#17936281)
In the realm of work, the goal should be (is) to maximize productivity.

The problem is that we haven't come up with a way to properly pay people in a system where productivity has increased past the point that "full employment" - in the traditional sense - is no longer needed, or possible.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by imgabe on Friday September 07, 2018 @02:00PM (#17936326)
Everyone is employed in a hunter gatherer society. Do you find that preferable?
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by EliRivers on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:55PM (#17936280)
Surely the (unattainable) ideal should be full unemployment?
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by twblalock on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:36PM (#17936120)
No, the goal of society should be to maximize wealth, which can then be distributed as we see fit.

If companies had to maximize employment they would need to automate fewer things, which would lower productivity and result in less wealth being produced. The entire society would end up being poorer.

This happened in the Communist bloc within living memory and we don't need to make the same mistake again. It's not a coincidence that the countries with the best quality of life are the ones that allow corporations to pursue wealth creation over other goals and then redistribute the wealth through taxation and social benefits. If you want to redistribute wealth it's good to actually have some wealth.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by Finnucane on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:04PM (#17935862)
>The ideal company is seen as an investment vehicle that creates shareholder value. Full stop.

Even if that were true, that's not a factor that just suddenly started to have force in the last couple of decades.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by moosey on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:11PM (#17935922)
Massive tax cuts for the wealthy, particularly for capital gains and dividends, have reduced the resistance for money escaping corporations into the hands of investors, rather than the value add of paying employees more or improving working conditions and benefits. These changes started to occur in the 1980's, rather than the Dodge vs. Ford decision from 1919.

While it is certainly true that nothing legally changed (edit: this isn't true: there is a full on attack on collective bargaining ongoing) in the more recent 30-40 years to allow for the massive accumulation of wealth and corporate practices that make the 'FULL STOP' in the original comment more accurate than before, the modification of tax law certainly has had a major impact.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by pjmorris on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:54PM (#17936268)
Actually, shareholder value has only become an important emphasis in the past few decades.

> On August 12, 1981, Jack Welch made a speech at The Pierre in New York City called ‘Growing fast in a slow-growth economy’. This is often acknowledged as the "dawn" of the obsession with shareholder value. [0]

Milton Friedman's 1970 op ed in the NYT [1] arguing that profit is the primary social responsibility of a corporation has also been influential on executive thinking in this regard.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctr...

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by gautamdivgi on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:27PM (#17936064)
However, the manufacturing capability in Asia has caught up in the last couple of decades. This means companies can provide more shareholder value by moving manufacturing overseas where costs are lower.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by Brockenstein on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:13PM (#17935936)
It doesn't have to be new, but we have new and more ways to increase shareholder value. Like vastly improved methods of automation that have appeared in the past few decades.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by ddebernardy on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:43PM (#17936176)
As much as I agree with your sentiment that shareholder value shouldn't be the only focus of companies, you can't reason with companies in complete isolation of their environment.

The grimmer reality is that companies compete with one another, and customers - be them consumers, businesses, non-profits, or administrations. They all mind things like cost and quality to a degree, so you need to constantly improve your processes, and indeed automate, to stay in business.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by salawat on Saturday September 08, 2018 @01:25AM (#17939557)
I agree in principle to needing to continually increase quality. I do not agree that that invalidates my point against the dangerous optimization around shareholder value. The corporation is there to provide a service, good, or solution. That service good or solution will by necessarily differ for the most part from others in the same market space, thus creating competition over the capital moving into the space.

Unfortunately, this is where the perverse incentives start coming into play. Eventually, you hit that point of diminishing returns as an actor in the market.

One of a few things then has to happen.

A) Downsizing, hyper-optimization, and automation to create the illusion of growth and ROI to keep the investment bucks rolling in. This leads to decreased employment, and if unchecked creates value deserts at a certain point of optimization. You end up setting the bar so high to break into an area, that smaller endeavors without some massively disruptive edge being managed by people not interested in being bought out stand a chance at being able to survive.

B) You fail due to investors selling off your stock to reinvest elsewhere. Given enough sell off, you'll likely start seeing stock price go down. No one wants money in a company that can't grow anymore.

The situation in B) can lead to

C) Vertical/Horizontal integration. This tends to be risky, because you start bumping heads with regulatory agencies if you aren't careful, and the word 'monopoly' or 'oligopoly' starts getting thrown around. You CAN make incredible growth numbers by merging with the right things, but the network effects of an emphasis on shareholder returns and a minimization in financial payouts to laborers means a steady positive feedback loop is created, siphoning economic power to the people with shares, which is increasingly NOT the people working jobs. Eventually, there may be wealth transfer via inheritance from shareholding parents, but wages have been minimized for discouraging a large portion of the working population from buying stock.

This can be exacerbated as new goods price starts to take into account that there are generally at least enough well off enough people to the not+well-off people where prices will stabilize on the higher end of the scale over time. Leaving people looking for cheaper lower quality goods they can afford now.

This leads to a manufacturing race to the bottom. See current status quo with manufacturing moving to Asia. This can hold out only until some other metric starts to significantly raise the bar in terms of minimum cost to produce or transport goods. Which coincidentally, environmental concerns are starting to do. Once things start getting more expensive to produce, and the cost gets offloaded to the customer...

Well... You'll have a bunch of pissed off people who can't afford stuff, hired or not.

It'll take a long while. Heck, it's been what, 100, 200ish years, for our population to start getting to the scale technologically where we can even get a non-trivial number of people to even CONTEMPLATE theatre planet's capability to absorb our economic externalities is limited to within a few human lifespans.

It isn't an easy problem. A lotta moving pieces.

Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by jpttsn on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:20PM (#17936012)
You are free to measure companies any way you want. Investors measure the ROI, but don’t let that stop you.
Re:Is Automation Really to Blame for Lost Manufacturing Jobs? by swebs on Friday September 07, 2018 @01:28PM (#17936074)
That's only true for publicly traded companies. Most manufacturing companies are private simply because year over year growth is not feasible.