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Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by gkoberger on Friday August 10, 2018 @01:51PM (#17735382)
The framing of this article feels weird to me. Google offers a service (distribution), and it just so happens Fortnite doesn't need it. It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how.

A better way would be "Fortnite is big enough to bypass Google and still make $180MM", rather than acting like this is Google's fault. I mean, the fact that phone OSes get a cut of everything on their platform is already an insane racket.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by izacus on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:18PM (#17736040)
In a few years the media (which has always been very pro-Apple) has internalized the idea, that all your software MUST come from a single corporation controlled walled garden and pay tax to them. The whole concept of being able to install software from a source you choose is now so foreign that they'll speak against it when possible.

And unfortunately, this seems to be the case with a lot of HN commenters as well.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by dbt00 on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:40PM (#17736188)
I've been running open source, free, libre, etc software since the mid-90s. My firewall is openbsd. my laptop runs linux. I use emacs for most of my software editing. I want you to understand that I am a big open source weenie, and have been for decades.

I think asking consumers to evaluate risk of installing third party apps and manage permissions is insane. My phone runs iOS. My family the same. The volume of malware in the Play Store alone, much less in the sideloading community is mind boggling. If I ran Android I would only install software that I had written myself or come from a trusted vendor, and only use a browser (probably not Chrome even, but Firefox) for any third party content.

Any anti-walled-garden screed has to grapple with the fact that in the real world, the walled garden protects people from mass data theft and infiltration. Windows used to be like this, before many more users switched to Mac (which is harder, but not impossible) to backdoor. Replicating the internet security environment of the late 90s but on our phones would be a disaster for the technology-using world.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by adrianmalacoda on Friday August 10, 2018 @05:48PM (#17736978)
There's something to be said for having a known good source of software that you can trust. GNU/Linux of course follows the same model, where you're expected to get the majority of your software from the distro repository. So, I don't think this model is inherently antithetical to free software.

I'm a free software nerd and I run LineageOS-sans-Google on my mobile device. I get the vast majority of my software through F-Droid, which works like a GNU/Linux distribution - they build all packages from source and sign with their own key. Only time I would sideload a package is if it's not available in F-Droid (because it's proprietary - although I've since found out about Yalp and use that instead) or if I'm building it myself. It works well enough for me.

I think the objectionable part of a walled garden, at least to a free software nerd, is the walled part. I appreciate the option of being able to step outside if I feel I need to.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by iashugd3 on Saturday August 11, 2018 @03:09AM (#17738703)
That's not accurate. Side-loading applications is certainly a risk but not Play Store.

"In 2016, the annual probability that a user downloaded a PHA (potentially harmful applications) from Google Play was .04% and we reduced that by 50% in 2017 for an annual average of .02%.

In 2017, downloading a PHA from Google Play was less likely than the odds of an asteroid hitting the earth."

Source: https://source.android.com/security/reports/Google_Android_S...

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by archagon on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:45PM (#17736228)
Gatekeeper on macOS is a great compromise. I wish iOS would adopt the same model.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by gspetr on Sunday August 12, 2018 @02:51AM (#17743273)
> I think asking consumers to evaluate risk of installing third party apps and manage permissions is insane.

Is it? What do you think billions of people using Windows have done for decades?

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by rhacker on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:52PM (#17736267)
here here. Can you imagine that if, back in the early 80s, when PCs and Apple computers were just starting out if companies like Software Etc., Egghead or RadioShack or Fry's or other venues had to get ALL their software (boxed packages) from Apple or IBM (or possibly MS) before they were allowed to sell it? I'm sure IBM and Apple would have benefitted a ton, but companies like Adobe, Id, Epic, Norton, and a slew of others... would have suffered and probably never made it as far as they have. The kind of anti-competition models these companies have over the market is a massive stranglehold.

Now the crux is this. In the 80s, 90s and arguably most of the 00's the average Joe and average Katey didn't store 90% of their personal secrets, nude photos, diaries, drug deal receipts, etc... on their desktops and later laptop computers. It wasn't until this decade that such massive amounts of personal information started to become digital. Yes very likely I among thousands of HNs had already crazy personal lives going back to the mid-80s on a desktop hard drive sitting in some dump right now. But hey, at least they barely work and CC info is probably stale.

But today, the environment is much different. I'm not arguing that what Apple and Google is OK, but at least they got some kind of notion that free-for-all might not be appropriate right now.

It might take some time but I definitely welcome new models. For example: * Certified third party app stores * Independent Software Certifiers

It can be up to the user to decide if they want to either use a specific store or decide to specifically trust the certificate of an independent software certifier. And at that point Google could, for example, treat the app as a pass through on their own store. The software certifiers will need to keep a reputation up, for example.

I know I'm providing simple examples here - not that I want to discuss in detail on HN the finer points of these ideas - but that I want there to BE another way that can allow software to be sold online, without the 30% Apple markup that chokes the independent software vendors out there.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by genericid on Friday August 10, 2018 @08:50PM (#17737685)
The problem is that Apple and Google are not trying to give people the ability to download the software they want without catching malware, but to make a profit. If Google were trying to provide that service they would not ban ad blockers from their store. They would not charge arbitary 30%, but whatever operating a software repository actually costs.

The problem here is not a lack of competition. Ultimately, there needs to be one default software repository that people can trust -- you can't have a free-for-all here for the same reason you can't have a free-for-all for software in general. The profit motive is the problem.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by kgwgk on Friday August 10, 2018 @08:46PM (#17737672)
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by Benjammer on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:45PM (#17735808)
>the fact that phone OSes get a cut

That's how a platform business _works_ though.

I mean we could discuss reasonable limits or something or how a platform effects competition once it's entrenched, but you're basically just saying "The concept of a platform business is an insane racket."

Do you think building a global software distribution platform is easy? Let alone the value of compounding network effects.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by philipov on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:53PM (#17735867)
The concept of a platform business is an insane racket.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by chrisseaton on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:16PM (#17736026)
Google and Apple have created and invested in their platforms - it’s not insane for them to make profit from them.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by potta_coffee on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:24PM (#17736083)
They've created an artificial need for the platforms by closing their systems. Open systems don't require these kinds of platforms. I can install whatever I want on my PC and I like it that way.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by chrisseaton on Friday August 10, 2018 @04:22PM (#17736469)
> I can install whatever I want on my PC and I like it that way.

Good for you, but many other people appreciate the curated platforms that Google and Apple have built and like it that way instead. They're not 'insane' for liking it a different way to you - there's benefits of both approaches.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by scarface74 on Saturday August 11, 2018 @02:04AM (#17738588)
Yes you can, and so can the unwashed masses that have 10 toolbars in IE, ransomware, viruses, etc.

And it’s not just dumb people downloading from shady sources. Look for a printer driver online and you’re just as likely to find a fake malware site as the real site.

The need for trusted sources for downloading apps with limited permissions can easily be seen if you look at some people’s PCs - or Android devices.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by dragonwriter on Friday August 10, 2018 @07:13PM (#17737353)
> I can install whatever I want on my PC and I like it that way.

True on Android, too. And both platforms have OS vendor app stores.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by ac29 on Friday August 10, 2018 @07:11PM (#17737347)
Perhaps you've missed the point of the article -- Google's platform is open, and you can install whatever you want without using their store, which is the route Epic has taken with Fortnite.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by txcwpalpha on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:29PM (#17736120)
Google spends absurd amounts of money developing and supporting Android, providing security updates, providing feature updates, and even goes so far as to spend money marketing Android. They then give Android, for free, to manufacturers to use on their phones. They also create, support, and give, for free, many of the development tools which developers like Epic Games then use to create Android applications and games.

After spending an insane amount of money creating and supporting these things, it seems completely justifiable that Google would then ask for a cut of the profits for applications that are built on top of the tools and infrastructure that Google provides for free.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by philipov on Friday August 10, 2018 @04:00PM (#17736308)
The fact that it is hard and provides value does not stop it from also being unethical. The conversation about antitrust needs to move beyond just monopolies and recognize that an oligopoly of mega-corporations staking out their own kingdoms is still massively anti-competitive. Corporate feudalism isn't my idea of free-market capitalism.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by sushid on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:59PM (#17735914)
How about physical stores and selling items in retail space? Companies pay money to get shelf space and special promotional displays in CPG all the time.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by minimaxir on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:15PM (#17735603)
> It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how.

Like Snapchat, this may be a case where deliberately counterintuitive behavior may actually help, since sideloading will now become "cool" for the teenagers/millennials it targets.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by solarkraft on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:26PM (#17736096)
It will probably introduce some people to die loading and, by disabling the prevention, maybe enable some malware APKs to be accidentally installed.

Not that much interesting software is available from outside the Play Store. Only OGYoutube comes to my mind here.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by gaius on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:48PM (#17735824)
will now become "cool"

If it does and becomes the «new normal» then that could cost Google alot more...

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by scarface74 on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:36PM (#17735737)
How is this any more or less insane than every console maker getting a cut of every game distributed either physically or digitally? For you to sell a physical game disk, you still have to have a cryptographic signature issued by the console maker.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by izacus on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:19PM (#17736049)
Who's saying that's a good thing for a healthy free market?
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by scarface74 on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:24PM (#17736082)
It’s not but it’s been that way since the first Atari game system came out.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by javagram on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:34PM (#17736155)
Atari and other early consoles had unlicensed, unapproved software distributed for them legally.

This did become impossible eventually as security technology improved.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by scarface74 on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:49PM (#17736249)
It actually started in 1983 with the NES from what I can tell. NES's lockout chip was reverse engineered and Nintendo sued.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by arminiusreturns on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:41PM (#17735780)
Because consoles are proprietary closed source boxen and android isn't?
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by scarface74 on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:56PM (#17735886)
Everything that makes Android, Android to most Western consumers is closed source - the play store, Google Maps, Youtube, the dialer, Chrome, etc.

Google has abandoned more and more of the open source parts of AOSP with closed source alternatives over the years.

That’s not to mention all of the drivers that are proprietary....

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by solarkraft on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:28PM (#17736115)
But it is pretty interesting how easy it has always been to bypass the Play Store. It's user friendly, yes, and I like it, but it essentially enables Epic Games' workaround.

Google could have easily added way more (still acceptable for most users) friction into the process in the first place. Maybe having the switch in the developer settings, maybe having to enable it over ADB. That'd surely have made Epic Games think harder about this move.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by scarface74 on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:51PM (#17736261)
The original statement was....

Because consoles are proprietary closed source boxen and android isn't

The fact that you can install software outside of the app store no more makes the version of Android that most people run "open source" than it does Windows or MacOS.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by lukewrites on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:44PM (#17736215)
It is misleading. It would be more honest (imho) to describe Google as "missing out on" rather than "losing". I don't think you can "lose" that which you never had.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by ma2rten on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:14PM (#17735599)
Is that actually the frameing of the article or just the headline? I feel like they just choose a borderline clickbait headline. Maybe they even wrote that headline after the fact.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by xg15 on Friday August 10, 2018 @04:09PM (#17736372)
I'd say the framing is right, because it highlights why this is news: The Play Store is way more than a service for Google - it's one of the primary ways they keep control over the Android ecosystem.

To my knowledge, this is the first time, someone uses the side-loading loophole on a commercial scale. It should be interesting to observe Google's reaction to that.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by trumped on Friday August 10, 2018 @07:36PM (#17737450)
> A better way would be "Fortnite is big enough to bypass Google and still make $180MM", rather than acting like this is Google's fault.

> I mean, the fact that phone OSes get a cut of everything on their platform is already an insane racket.

isn't it Google's decision to charge insane amounts for apps that they didn't create?

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by rc_bhg on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:04PM (#17735517)
Good job TechCrunch.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by 628C6l0 on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:19PM (#17735631)
That's just the art of writing headlines. How else do they generate online conversation except by stating it in a obviously flawed way provoking people like you to point out the flaw and people with a penchant for "charity" to come to their defense, and so on and so forth?

Why are we still falling for this crap?

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by solarkraft on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:22PM (#17736067)
I have never thought about it like this. Thanks and please keep pointing it out!
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by uvatbc on Friday August 10, 2018 @08:42PM (#17737656)
> Why are we still falling for this crap?

We fall for this because a subset of us has been provoked to point out the obvious flaw in the headline or the summary and another subset has been provoked into defending the part that isn't flawed.

I alternated between feeling like this was a question worth answering and feeling like a dick for answering this with your own words.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by 628C6l0 on Friday August 10, 2018 @09:04PM (#17737737)
I mean, it was a rhetorical question, which by definition is a question asked not to elicit an answer but to make a point.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by oh_sigh on Friday August 10, 2018 @01:55PM (#17735424)
Not just a cut but 30%.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by SonnyWortzik on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:15PM (#17735604)
That's up there with federal income tax.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by vetinari on Friday August 10, 2018 @02:42PM (#17735781)
Companies pay taxes on profits, not on revenue. Google takes 30% cut of the revenue. That's quite a difference.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by SonnyWortzik on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:26PM (#17736099)
sure, as a private company I have a running budget based on the profits of my application. 30% of that revenue which I will never get will be going to another company which has a record of paying little to no taxes.

Now, how do you think the government makes up the difference in the tax loop holes? By raising taxes on companies like mine and restricting/regulating on how I structure my profits/income so that it can stay in business. So indirectly 30% off the revenue is affecting my tax situation with the federal government.

Again, 30% is on par with federal income tax.

Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by dbt00 on Friday August 10, 2018 @03:41PM (#17736200)
I think the comment was saying that it's way worse than income tax. I don't think you're disagreeing.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by vetinari on Friday August 10, 2018 @05:45PM (#17736971)
Exactly; it's at least one order of magnitude worse than the income tax.
Re:Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypas... by SonnyWortzik on Sunday August 12, 2018 @08:19AM (#17744030)
agree. I read your comment defensively. my fault. I was trying to imply that Google is acting like some government entity taxing your income.