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Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by zitterbewegung on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:08PM (#17323572)
After the company launched professionals in the medical testing said it was impossible. I believe it was even posted to HN. They stated it was impossible to get the results they would get from the amount of blood given.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by minimaxir on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:16PM (#17323630)
For reference, here's the very first HN submission about Theranos in 2013: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6349349
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by sveme on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:26PM (#17323705)
Interesting. Skinming through the comments, very little criticism, everyone in awe. Only way down there is someone stating how hard it is to get regulatory approval.

I guess that‘s HN still in full fanboy mode, before all those startups started to display their dark sides.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by icebraining on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:41PM (#17323837)
I don't see any fanboyism; I see interest, and surprise at the composition of the board. A bit down, I see strong criticism by medman77, who hasn't been downvoted.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by KSS42 on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:10PM (#17324056)
medman77 created his/her account that day and only ever posted that one comment.

I wonder if he/she was from Nanomix (nano.com, another company working on similar technology since 2000)

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by notlob on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:34PM (#17324244)
An interesting observation is that medman77 would seem to be particular about FDA clearance vs approval, which is one sign of someone who does know what they’re talking about.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by rgbrenner on Friday June 15, 2018 @08:09PM (#17324856)
medman77, who hasn't been downvoted.

We don't know that. You can only downvote comments for a day(?).. but you can upvote forever. Considering it's been 5 years, and people keep linking to his comment... it's hard to say if he gained those points that day or years later after theranos was found to be a fraud.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by rz2k on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:46PM (#17324338)
Check out the top comment to April 2015: Scientists skeptical about Theranos blood test (businessinsider.com): [1]

> What stops the skeptics from doing their own tests by walking into a service center and having their blood analyzed for all tests possible and doing the same with their blood for conventional tests? Or an even large scale test?

> If their concern is genuine (rather than a way to get a look under the hood of a competitor for the current sellers of such services) there are multiple ways in which they could get their verification without inside information on how Theranos does its thing.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9440595

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by SilasX on Friday June 15, 2018 @07:26PM (#17324625)
And for everyone one of those I can find about a thousand HN comments telling you to push on even if you're unsure about whether you can deliver.

Edit: For that reason, most of this "I told you so" sounds like hindsight bias if it comes from someone who would normally take the attitude of "fake it till you make it", "don't wait until you're sure you have a working product".

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by learc83 on Friday June 15, 2018 @11:06PM (#17325586)
Look at my comments on the April thread.

I was incredibly sceptical about a 19 year old with no experience starting a biotech company. All of my comments had a large number of upvotes (for 2015), while many of the people disagreeing with me were downvoted into the negatives.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by SilasX on Saturday June 16, 2018 @11:52AM (#17327869)
Yes, being skeptical about a 19 year old is easy.

The hard part is to do it in a way consistent with the rhetoric about “fake it till you make it”/“it’ll all work out”/“all self doubt is impostor syndrome”.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by learc83 on Saturday June 16, 2018 @12:11PM (#17327951)
It's not hard if you just don't tell people to fake it till they make it in the first place.

There's a sizeable contingent on HN that is sceptical of that mindset in general, which was my point.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by SilasX on Wednesday June 20, 2018 @07:56PM (#17360977)
No. There's a sizeable contingent of people who will call out specific ideas as being "obviously BS", but who lack the insight to realize the dissonance with their mentality of "fake it till you make it". People who actually have a general answer for "when not to fake it, and give up instead" are the extreme exception.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by nsp on Friday June 15, 2018 @08:22PM (#17324904)
Generally that advice is not directed towards people starting medical device companies.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by SilasX on Friday June 15, 2018 @08:51PM (#17325064)
If you can find even one such comment that also offers a heuristic for when your self-doubt is justified and you should therefore quit, I will be surprised.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by notlob on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:43PM (#17324309)
Theranos was tight lipped on the tech. An alternative interpretation is that there was insufficient information on the tech at that moment for knowledgeable people to weigh in on, other than to observe that this is a difficult problem and a “red ocean” in a regulated industry, and it is hardly worth stating something so obvious.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by cfadvan on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:59PM (#17323982)
It’s probably also a reflection of the fact that the flaw in Theranos’ goal was a medical issue, namely uniformity of sampled blood, and this isn’t a site of mostly MD’s. Part of it may well have been fanboyism, but it may just have been that most here lacked the requisite background to see the flaw.

I find the self-driving, or near-future Mars colony fanboyism here a little harder to take, because a much larger segment of the user base should know better.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by zaidf on Saturday June 16, 2018 @12:36AM (#17325866)
If you read the book, it’s very apparent it was a case of fanboyism from a very specific demographic: older males in positions of power (WalGreens CEO, Safeway CEO, mulplitude of investors like Murdoch, Larry Ellison, politicians like Schultz and Mathis.) Many of these individuals had very educated voices on their team that constantly sounded the alarm bells only to be ignored and chastised because those in power were completely smitten and couldn’t fathom re-evaluating their positions. In one instance, Safeway staffers even half-joked that Safeway CEO saw in Holmes the daughter he never had.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by rebeccaskinner on Friday June 15, 2018 @07:27PM (#17324638)
I suspect you're right, but that also highlights a broad problem that we have in tech. In the face of missing expertise, most people assumed, or at least were willing to believe, that it was more likely that a tech company would be able to completely disrupt the way blood tests have been done, rather than question why something as simple as "use less blood" hadn't been done already if it were feasible.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by txsh on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:59PM (#17323986)
You don't see criticism because critical posts get deleted.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by portman on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:24PM (#17323684)
Fascinating to read, thank you.

“There are more soldiers in that board there than doctors” is one of the original comments!

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by paradroid on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:50PM (#17324372)
"It's odd how little information is provided about the actual new technologies behind this." - @aheilbut
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by maxander on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:36PM (#17323781)
Any citations on that? In all the hullabaloo about Theranos I haven't heard that there were serious theoretical difficulties with what they were trying to do.

It would make me feel somewhat better about the whole mess to know this was the case. A successful Theranos would have been the best thing to come out of SV since the Apple II. It was sad to see it fail because of executives' delusions.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by joezydeco on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:55PM (#17323956)
The major medical diagnostic companies had been working on microfluidic assays for a couple of decades before Holmes came along. It's a very difficult subject especially when it comes to immunoassays. This wasn't a blue sky field by any means.

There were numerous research papers on the topic, and some time spent with experts in the field would have also pointed her in the direction of the current research.

Almost too late she hired an expert from Abbott Diagnostics (who headed up a number of successful system projects for them), and he walked away after 6 months.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by 21 on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:52PM (#17323925)
I am no expert, but it's my understanding that blood in the capillaries (fingertip) is not exactly the same as blood in the veins.

> In addition, the small volumes involved and the variability in sample quality based on puncture site and technique make capillary sampling particularly susceptible to errors during the pre-preanalytical phase, which are beyond the control of clinical laboratory personnel

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4622200/

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by oldgradstudent on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:23PM (#17324149)
It's not the same as the veins, and varies a lot between fingers and location.

It is well known to any diabetic, or to anyone who played for a few minutes with a blood glucose monitor.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by MBCook on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:53PM (#17323936)
Well, to be fair, experts in the field called the original iPhone impossible.

Turns out in this case they were right.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by epistasis on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:58PM (#17323972)
I'm not sure if there were "experts" of the same caliber calling the iPhone impossible. In fact, I don't recall anybody saying it was impossible, but would like to find out more.

I remember a ton of doubt, after launch, that it would be successful, but those people weren't really experts.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by comex on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:21PM (#17324128)
Here’s one example. Apparently RIM’s employees collectively thought it was impossible (to achieve the stated battery life); I think they count as experts:

> RIM had a complete internal panic when Apple unveiled the iPhone in 2007, a former employee revealed this weekend. The BlackBerry maker is now known to have held multiple all-hands meetings on January 10 that year, a day after the iPhone was on stage, and to have made outlandish claims about its features. Apple was effectively accused of lying as it was supposedly impossible that a device could have such a large touchscreen but still get a usable lifespan away from a power outlet.

http://www.macnn.com/articles/10/12/27/rim.thought.apple.was...

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by oldgradstudent on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:25PM (#17324172)
I had the first iPhone. Let me just say that the official battery life was somewhat aspirational.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by teraflop on Friday June 15, 2018 @06:55PM (#17324408)
The comments summarized in that article seem to no longer be available, but I have a hard time believing the summary is accurate. When the iPhone was released, there were already PDAs on the market with screens the same size or bigger.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by URSpider94 on Friday June 15, 2018 @07:37PM (#17324693)
The devices at the time with larger screens were larger, heavier devices that had shorter battery life. Nobody made a pocketable device with a screen that size.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by megablast on Saturday June 16, 2018 @05:34AM (#17326732)
I had an iPaq at the time, had maybe 4 hours battery life, and that was with wifi used sparingly. No 2g or 3g was possible. Slow processor. Crappy screen.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by ceejayoz on Friday June 15, 2018 @08:21PM (#17324902)
PDAs that could run a processor powerful enough for actual desktop-quality Webkit, a cellular radio, etc.?
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by MBCook on Friday June 15, 2018 @10:01PM (#17325357)
That was exactly the anecdote I was thinking of.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by sjg007 on Friday June 15, 2018 @11:42PM (#17325699)
It's all in the power saving software.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by macintux on Saturday June 16, 2018 @12:38AM (#17325881)
I definitely remember one supposed LCD expert who said Apple was lying about the iPad battery life. Said there was no way it would last more than 3 hours.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by maxxxxx on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:09PM (#17323579)
That can be OK if the company was started knowing that they had invented something new.
Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by FireBeyond on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:23PM (#17323674)
Sure. And while certainly "possible", how likely is it that a 19yo college dropout (who wasn't studying medical sciences) was able to discover a technique that did so, after forty years of multiple multi-billion dollar companies researching the same (after all, the brave new world offered by her dream was hardly new or unpalatable to other players in her field).

And her actions demonstrated she had done no such thing. Buying, hiding, deceiving around traditional venipuncture machines, etc.

This is someone who "had a dream", had connections, and was determined and stubborn, in a bad way. Even now she, and one or two of investors, still believe she has been robbed and wronged, and that the world is worse off without Theranos.

Re:U.S. Files Criminal Charges Against Theranos’s Elizabeth ... by vkou on Friday June 15, 2018 @05:24PM (#17323685)
The bar for inventing something new in medicine is not "Eh, if you squint, it sorta looks like it works, ship that shit."