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Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by lovich on Thursday June 14, 2018 @04:28PM (#17315073)
Automation should lead to the end of work. The end result should be that everything we want is produced for us and humans wony be forced to do labor, at which point we can focus on doing what we _actually_ want to do.
Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by dmortin on Thursday June 14, 2018 @04:32PM (#17315115)
The problem is if UBI is implemented then it may turn out like some kind of basic standard of living (small flat, free public transportation, etc.)

And if you want more then you'll have to work in some high skilled job to earn extra money on top of UBI. But there won't be enough such jobs for everyone, so there will be fierce competion for these jobs, because those who'll be able to work will enjoy a higher standard of living than people on UBI.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by lovich on Thursday June 14, 2018 @04:40PM (#17315180)
You are making the incorrect assumption everyone who works wants a continually higher standard of living. I am perfectly fine with my current material possessions. I don't really want new things anymore. The only reason I continue to work is because I, or my family, are just one major health issue away from losing everything.
Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by dmortin on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:05PM (#17315339)
Of course, people have different needs. My point was it's possible one wouldn't be able to maintain one's current standard of living if out of job and living on this future UBI.

Then people would want to work to regain at least their previous standard of living.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by krapp on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:25PM (#17315522)
>My point was it's possible one wouldn't be able to maintain one's current standard of living if out of job and living on this future UBI.

The purpose of UBI as I understand it would be to provide a stable floor of income for people independent of employment. I think of it as being like a minimum wage - not high enough for a middle class standard of living, but hopefully higher than the poverty line. Enough to keep food on the table.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by dmortin on Friday June 15, 2018 @04:34AM (#17318334)
If it will be like minimum wage then many people are mistaken thinking that they will be able live on UBI in the future and maintain their current lifestyles (big house, two cars, etc.).
Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by krapp on Friday June 15, 2018 @10:42AM (#17320083)
Anyone who believes UBI will allow them to maintain that quality of life fundamentally misunderstands its purpose and possible scope. UBI just decouples employment from social welfare, people who want a big house and two cars would still have to work for it.
Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by lovich on Thursday June 14, 2018 @08:40PM (#17316588)
Yes, if UBI wasn't UBI then of course it wouldn't be UBI. The very definition of it, is that it provides a floor for people where a standard of living _is_ maintained.

There are arguments that UBI is not attainable/sustainable, but that's different then getting the definition wrong

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by dmortin on Friday June 15, 2018 @04:37AM (#17318346)
But what is that standard? If today someboday has a big house and two cars, and robots take his job in the future then can he expect his UBI will be enough to maintain the big house and 2 cars, because that is his current standard of living? I doubt that.
Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by lovich on Saturday June 16, 2018 @01:04PM (#17328212)
The standard shouldnt be "This guys personal idea of a living situation". Wed have to come to an agreement as a society as to what is part of that standard.

I think shelter, clothes, internet, and food would be a reasonable modern standard but that shelter doesn't have to mean a 3000 sq ft house, and internet doesn't mean they have the fastest connection speed possible in the area, and food doesn't mean steak and lobster every night.

That standard should increase as technology improves, for instance if we did this in the 90s having internet access would have been a luxury and not a requirement for being part of society, but it doesn't have to be something luxurious compared to the time period its paid out in

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by rosser on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:34PM (#17315591)
> And if you want more then you'll have to work in some high skilled job to earn extra money...

Or try your hand at entrepreneurship, since you've got a net. Or write a book, which you turn into passive income. Or, or, or...

A UBI should take us to a place where jobs are optional. This is an unambiguous net good, IMO.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by jeffreyrogers on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:59PM (#17315806)
You have to finance UBI somehow. Every realistic estimate for how to finance it would put the amount of UBI around $10k, maybe $20k. That's not a lot to live off of. You're not going to become an entrepreneur with $20k since that won't pay for office space, equipment, etc.

Plus UBI probably creates a disincentive for work. This is not just some hypothesis. In trials of UBI people receiving UBI worked less. Fewer people working -> less tax revenue -> less money available to finance UBI.

UBI isn't a panacea or a route to utopia. Jobs can't be optional until we have some sort of robotic labor force, which is a long way off.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by alexbeloi on Thursday June 14, 2018 @07:17PM (#17316216)
>You're not going to become an entrepreneur with $20k since that won't pay for office space, equipment, etc.

Not if you spend it on office equipment. The $20k buys you $20k worth of free time in your life to work on your personal projects, ideas, hobbies without your life falling apart as a consequence.

That's enough time to set up a small leather-working shop in your garage, or build an app, or start a podcast, or write a few chapters of a book.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by paulie_a on Thursday June 14, 2018 @06:25PM (#17315966)
Being an entrepreneur is not access to capital.

It is a mental state and a type of personality. You can be one and be successful starting with 0 dollars.

Entrepreneurs don't even need office space, and can get going with extremely limited equipment.

Honestly you have a profound misunderstanding of what an entrepreneur actually is.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by rosser on Thursday June 14, 2018 @06:02PM (#17315823)
> You're not going to become an entrepreneur with $20k…

Isn't that around the amount YC typically puts into a project?

Hasn't the internet proven how cheap entrepreneurship can be?

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by gowld on Thursday June 14, 2018 @06:12PM (#17315898)
Not every business is a web app.
Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by rosser on Thursday June 14, 2018 @06:33PM (#17316000)
I'm not sure where I implied that it is, except perhaps in invoking YC, which funds far more than "web apps".

Not having to burn yourself out just to feed and shelter yourself would afford you vastly more opportunity to find a niche that you can make an extra buck in, if you're inclined and motivated that way.

I don't see why this is such an un-obvious notion, or why people seem not to think that could net us a far richer economy — of goods, services, and ideas — than the one we've got, where you on the whole only get what someone who already has money (either the founder or their backers) decides to make.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by krapp on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:14PM (#17315431)
But we live in capitalist societies, and humans will still be required to pay rent for their survival, despite not being able to exchange their labor for the necessary capital.

How often has automation in the past led to the unemployed leading lives of intellectual pursuit and luxury? Never. Typically those made surplus to requirement are left to scrape by in meager poverty, as has happened in the American rust belt and Appalachia, because automation has lowered their value in society to be barely worth the cost of keeping them alive.

We need to prepare for that, rather than hoping for a utopian, post-scarcity fantasy that isn't going to happen.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by JoeAltmaier on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:17PM (#17315451)
Unless we make it happen. By instituting a UBI for instance. Or expanding human rights to include food and shelter.

"Who will pay for all this?!" is the usual outcry. Ignoring the very premise that automation has taken over the role of producing all this. Its a circular argument that has roots in the Protestant Work Ethic (independent of Capitalism) where "If I have to work, they everybody has to work dad gum it!"

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by krapp on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:41PM (#17315655)
>Unless we make it happen. By instituting a UBI for instance. Or expanding human rights to include food and shelter.

In the US, that's going to be a difficult sell. States threatened to secede over the ACA and that was nowhere near as "socialist" as a universal income or right to food and shelter would be.

It could happen, but it seems like it would take a serious social and political upheaval, and the winds currently seem to be blowing in the other direction entirely. I hope it doesn't take something on the scale of the Great Depression to bring it about.

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by JoeAltmaier on Thursday June 14, 2018 @05:55PM (#17315778)
Just public reeducation. I think as soon as "you get a check in the mail" is presented, folks will change their minds sooner than we think.
Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by lovich on Thursday June 14, 2018 @08:44PM (#17316606)
Are we supposed to just shoot ourselves in the foot because some people want to do it? At some point this level of difference in political views can only come to violence if one side is "we should tax the richest more" and the other side is "if you're poor then you are going to starve".

And before anyone calls that hyperbole, I don't see how refusing to provide some sort of garunteed welfare that provides food and housing is not "if you're poor you are gonna starve" in a system where access to food and shelter is tied to your income

Re:Don’t Fear the Robots: Why Automation Doesn’t Mean the En... by gowld on Thursday June 14, 2018 @06:14PM (#17315909)
The states threatening to secede are net recipients of welfare payments, so secession makes UBI more cost-effective.