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Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by jandrese on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:07PM (#17268706)
Eh, Facebook was a natural evolution of social networks going back to MySpace, Friendstr, SixDegrees. Each one fixing mistakes of the past and becoming the next big thing until their own mistakes caught up to them.

The one that I dismissed was Twitter. In fact I thought it was a joke when I first heard about it, something making fun of how long winded boring blog posts on services like Livejournal tended to be. I also thought Vine would be doomed to fail.

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by waynecochran on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:12PM (#17268752)
I never thought Uber nor Airbnb would be successful. Who invites strangers in their home or car. I was told as a kid to never get in a stranger's car ... now, as an adult, I am riding with strangers all the time.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by jandrese on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:30PM (#17268931)
You never take taxis? Airbnb is even less of a stretch since B&Bs were the original hotel.

Uber was not a surprise at all for me because I'd been complaining about the bloated and horrible taxicab system for many years. It was a market that was crying out for disruption. I remember in 2008 my local taxicab company had exactly two ways to hail a cab: phone or fax. They might or might not show up at the appointed time, and they'd certainly never send you any kind of updates. It cost upwards of $5 to step into the cab, and after that there were fees out the wazoo (per 1/6th mile fee, per 45 seconds fee, fee for having a bag, a fuel surcharge, a license surcharge, a regulatory recovery surcharge, and a couple others I forget). The cabs might have credit card readers but they were always broken so it was cash only. Drivers took weirdly roundabout backroads paths and always claimed it was fastest if you asked them about it, even though I knew the highway was not busy at 4am. Every single thing about the experience sucked. When they started crying later that Uber was killing their business my response was "good".

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by romwell on Friday June 08, 2018 @05:32PM (#17269883)
>Uber was not a surprise at all for me...

When I moved to the US in 2003, the lack of something like Uber was a surprise.

Not in the smartphone-app sense, of course (those didn't exist yet), but in the sense of regular-Joes-making-a-buck-giving-a-ride sense.

Back in Ukraine, there was no taxicab monopoly. You could hail a ride on the street simply by raising your hand - and someone would pick you up pretty fast. Some people did it for a living, some would use the extra income on the way to/from work if you were going in the same direction (not unlikely if you are standing on a major street going to downtown, for example).

The fares were unregulated and negotiated on the spot, but there was an equilibrium point for every route. (Unless you were a tourist, in which case you'll be almost surely ripped off - nothing any local would care about though).

And, of course, there was no rating system, which took away the incentives for drivers to go out of their way to maintain a nice appearance. Don't like it, don't take the ride; the next car is will stop by a minute later for you, the next passenger will be around the corner for the driver.

Other than the lack of ratings and fixed pricing, this worked like Uber works now in other aspects.

What might be surprising is that central pricing and ratings really don't make ridesharing much different from what I described. It made the system more accepted in the US, but the end result is pretty much the same: I can hail a ride anywhere from people I don't know. The system stabilizes at a price point and expected level of service.

And there's a remarkable similarity in the downsides of this system. My father made some money giving rides back in Ukraine between jobs, and while the short-term revenue looked great (compared to average monthly salaries), so much of it went into gas and maintenance that the whole gig was hardly worth it - and it took more time than a job.

This is what Uber drivers are discovering themselves right now. The ones who took out loans for their shiny cars are especially screwed.

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by reaperducer on Friday June 08, 2018 @06:31PM (#17270266)
>Not in the smartphone-app sense, of course (those didn't exist yet), but in the sense of regular-Joes-making-a-buck-giving-a-ride sense.

These existed nationwide in the United States in the early days of the 20th century, until about WWII. In many cities they were called "jitneys." Some were organized enough to operate as simple, private, anonymous bus companies with fixed (but flexible) routes.

They started disappearing after WWII when most people outside the urban cores got a car, and municipal governments started taking over public transit.

These still exist in some places, but are mostly in ethnic minority communities and spread by word-of-mouth. (I know first-hand because I got hit head-on by one full of schoolchildren in the late 90's.)

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by caithrin on Saturday June 09, 2018 @11:07AM (#17273368)
I can’t speak to all of the US, but circa 2010 there was still a ton of people driving “private cars” in Brooklyn. You would negotiate up front with the driver and pay cash. My guess is 100% of those guys use Uber now.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by romwell on Saturday June 09, 2018 @02:20PM (#17274251)
True, but you wouldn't hail them from a random location in the city. You'd have to be in the right place to find them.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by SimonPStevens on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:50PM (#17269097)
Except Uber didn't start as a taxi replacement company. If you only remember it as a taxi company it was already after it had started to become successful.

It was initially a carpooling app. The original pitch was that regular drivers would just drive to their own intended location and have an ability to see people on route who wanted to go the same way. Much harder to pick that idea out as a future billion dollar company.

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by nixme on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:13PM (#17269301)
What are you talking about? The original pitch was a black car service to fix the hailing problems of SF. It was even originally called UberCab. https://medium.com/@gc/the-beginning-of-uber-7fb17e544851
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by bertil on Friday June 08, 2018 @05:38PM (#17269928)
The original pitch was a black car service, but the legend that TK talks about, in Paris in the snowstorm of December 2008, was that he could ask “anyone there” to drive him, which is closer to carpooling.

(I was at that conference: everything went wrong, but it was mostly super cold. Cars were stuck in slippery snow, so someone suggesting the idea of carpooling sounds odd, but I suspect anyone there would have loved to wait out the traffic inside a heated car.)

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by adambyrtek on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:43PM (#17269516)
I think you are talking about Lyft not Uber.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by SimonPStevens on Sunday June 10, 2018 @12:28PM (#17278826)
Yup. Looks like it was me that misremembered. My mistake.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by volkl48 on Friday June 08, 2018 @07:09PM (#17270468)
AirBnB is also less of a stretch because there were already pretty successful attempts paving the way for it.

I was using VRBO a decade ago for vacations. AirBnB is more distinguished by a slick UI than business model innovation.

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by scarface74 on Saturday June 09, 2018 @12:32PM (#17273742)
Uber is still not a successful business model. It’s losing millions of dollars a quarter. Once they start charging enough not to have to subsidize rides and they can turn a profit and people still use them, then it can be called a success.

We still don’t know how price sensitive the average Uber customer is.

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by tigershark on Saturday June 09, 2018 @07:09PM (#17275499)
If I’m not mistaken in mature markets, like US, they are actually profitable. They lose money (a lot of it) to expand in new markets.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by hiccuphippo on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:40PM (#17269025)
I've never taken an Uber in the original sense of car pooling. It's always been as a cab.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by noblethrasher on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:45PM (#17269072)
Before Twitter, people on AIM and similar services would use status messages to broadcast short little notes to their buddy list. I had the idea of turning that into a service in the early 2000s.

What surprised me was seeing a serious journalist like Wolf Blitzer regularly reading people's tweets on his prime time show.

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by skinnymuch on Sunday June 10, 2018 @12:32PM (#17278841)
The degree of Facebook (and Whatsapp and Messenger) amount of users is insane though. How many people possibly thought they would be at numbers or around 1.5B and 2.2B users?
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by captain_perl on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:10PM (#17268741)
I also thought twitter was a joke until I realized most Americans are too lazy to write a blog post, or even read one.

“No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” - Mencken (paraphrased)

http://www.thisdayinquotes.com/2011/09/no-one-ever-went-brok...

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by dboreham on Friday June 08, 2018 @06:36PM (#17270286)
Twitter is the weird thing it is because it began with an SMS interface (hence 140 characters). It took off originally because you didn't need a smart phone or a data plan or a PC to use it.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by vilmosi on Friday June 08, 2018 @07:53PM (#17270670)
I thought it took off because they managed to get celebrities on it.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by TheKarateKid on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:22PM (#17271340)
This. Ashton Kutcher and Demi Moore were amongst the first celebrities on Twitter to actually post the content themselves rather than by a manager/PR agent. This got a lot of media attention and many other celebs followed shortly after.

I still remember finding it strange to see how Ashton and Demi personally wrote short messages, since every form of communication from famous people at the time were formal statements released via the press.

Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by tomhoward on Saturday June 09, 2018 @08:43AM (#17272746)
That happened a couple of years after it initially took off. Celebrities only took to it after it had gained solid traction among Silicon Valley types and social media early adopters.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by ISL on Friday June 08, 2018 @05:27PM (#17269849)
"Yo" did die (or at least appears zombified, with 32 Patreon supporters). One bit appears to be too few.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by scarface74 on Saturday June 09, 2018 @01:00PM (#17273867)
It’s not about being “lazy”. Most of the people I follow are both bloggers and podcasters. But not everything is not worthy of a blog post and I would hate for my RSS reader to be polluted with everything they tweet about (even if it is interesting.)
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by briandear on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:23PM (#17268852)
How many blog posts are being read and written by the French? The “Americans are too lazy” trope is just ridiculous.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by monkpit on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:41PM (#17269032)
I find that many comment like gp online are equally valid with the word “Americans” replaced with “people”. It irks me as well.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by solarkraft on Friday June 08, 2018 @07:20PM (#17270522)
Yes, but it does preserve some uncertainty about the rest of the world. The author may only feel comfortable enough to make a comment about Americans.
Re:Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by JoshCole on Friday June 08, 2018 @07:50PM (#17270661)
This comic kind of captures what you two are getting at, though I think you are applying the idea a little more generally.

https://xkcd.com/1138/