The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism

Re:The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism by soheil on Monday February 26, 2018 @01:09AM (#16463489)

Pinker also looks at relative numbers a lot, to me this seems disingenuous given for example that every day an equivalent number of people as a fully loaded 747 die to car accidents alone. We have been on the brink of complete nuclear annihilation at least once, to say we're very far from another such incident would be almost mad. Pinker avoids the giant elephants in the room so sure, the fast that we're still here makes his arguments look good, but they could be very shortsighted specially if there is no one to talk about them.

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Re:The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism by ghostcluster on Monday February 26, 2018 @02:25AM (#16463745)

vehicle death rates have cratered over the decades.

http://blog.fusedgrid.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/VKM-Fata...

I guess engineering-related safety regulations actually work.

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Re:The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism by dredmorbius on Monday February 26, 2018 @05:35AM (#16464380)

Interesting curves.

Half the reduction occurred from 1912 to about 1922, the first decade of large-scale auto use. Bt 1940, it halved again. The next halving gets you to the eary 1970s.

The present rate looks to be about 1 death per 100 million vehicle miles travelled (VMT), or roughly 1/5 the rate in 1970.

My main takeaway is diminishing marginal returns, and a fairly consistent trend of halving the rate every 20 years or so, after the first decade.

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Re:The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism by ghostcluster on Monday February 26, 2018 @05:48AM (#16464433)

i do wonder if driving with smartphones has caused any sort of bump in the last 7 years

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Re:The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism by dredmorbius on Monday February 26, 2018 @09:05PM (#16470597)

They're attributed to 9% of MVA deaths, and 16% of MVA injuries as of 2016, though trends seem relatively flat (or declining) since 2010.

Overall accident instances tend to scale with miles driven, which are a pro-cyclical economic factor. That is: as economic activity increases, people drive more, for both commuting and recreation.

https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving/in...

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/#/

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