Re:The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism
by ghostcluster on Monday February 26, 2018 @05:48AM
(#16464433)
i do wonder if driving with smartphones has caused any sort of bump in the last 7 years
Re:The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism
by dredmorbius on Monday February 26, 2018 @09:05PM
(#16470597)
They're attributed to 9% of MVA deaths, and 16% of MVA injuries as of 2016, though trends seem relatively flat (or declining) since 2010.
Overall accident instances tend to scale with miles driven, which are a pro-cyclical economic factor. That is: as economic activity increases, people drive more, for both commuting and recreation.
https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving/in...
Half the reduction occurred from 1912 to about 1922, the first decade of large-scale auto use. Bt 1940, it halved again. The next halving gets you to the eary 1970s.
The present rate looks to be about 1 death per 100 million vehicle miles travelled (VMT), or roughly 1/5 the rate in 1970.
My main takeaway is diminishing marginal returns, and a fairly consistent trend of halving the rate every 20 years or so, after the first decade.