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Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by nojvek on Wednesday January 31, 2018 @08:59PM (#16279203)
I guess A/B testing will tell you if the horse will become faster if you change from iron shoes to carbon fiber ones.

A/B testing won’t ever get you a Tesla from a horse.

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by ewjordan on Thursday February 01, 2018 @01:25AM (#16279955)
A/B testing won’t ever get you a Tesla from a horse.

Right. But if you were already selling Teslas, and along came a smooth-talking product designer with a dream to "improve" it by building a horse instead, A/B testing would make sure that change never saw the light of day.

A/B testing is not a way to get out of having to come up with good ideas yourself. It's a way to validate that your ideas are any good in the first place before betting the whole company on them.

A/B testing is most critical when evaluating big changes to a product, because those are the changes most likely to completely blow up the business. Otherwise it's left up to the opinion of the highest paid person in the room, and people are notoriously bad at guessing how customers will respond to change.

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by davedx on Thursday February 01, 2018 @03:19AM (#16280351)
Indeed. When I was advocating for A/B testing at the last company I worked for, I tried hard to teach people that every test should have a sane hypothesis behind it based on some kind of usability theory. Not just “let’s try changing the header font color to red and see what happens!”
Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by nojvek on Thursday February 08, 2018 @09:38AM (#16332238)
I worked for a company with an obsessed AB culture. Biggest hole I found. Clicks != satisfaction. Time spent on site also != satisfaction.

There’s something very powerful just talking to the user, feeling their pain and working with them to fix it until they say “this is awesome”.

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by gatmne on Wednesday January 31, 2018 @09:43PM (#16279331)
It will also tell you that pumping horses full of steroids will make them go faster. Tech's absurd obsession with metrics and statistics will be their undoing.
Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by mygo on Wednesday January 31, 2018 @10:04PM (#16279390)
If you do enough binary switching, you eventually will get a Tesla. Assuming a Tesla is optimal. Let’s test to find out.

How do you think the eyeball arose from unicellular eukaryotes?

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by nora4 on Wednesday January 31, 2018 @11:10PM (#16279596)
I don't think so. A/B testing is like gradient descent which is a greedy algorithm. You move in the direction that locally looks best. Evolution on the other hand allows for suboptimal species to persist for enough time to let them develop their advantage. (In the language of optimization evolution allows you to go past the local optimal and reach global optima by allowing you to move in non-optimal direction -- as long as the move is not catastrophic.)
Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by mygo on Thursday February 01, 2018 @11:53AM (#16283372)
Nope. A/B testing depends on what you choose to mutate. The problem is that we humans intentionally change the things. Nature randomly changes the things.

You’re not going to get to a global optimum driven by human choice of what to test (only local optima at best) unless the human setting up the tests is some sort of sage.

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by btilly on Thursday February 01, 2018 @05:24PM (#16286509)
Do you Nature will eventually hit on a global optimum? If so, that belief is opposed by what biologists know about developmental and evolutionary pathways.

For a trivial and well-known example, there is now no developmental or evolutionary pathway that will lead to a vertebrate eye where the nerves run behind the retina. As a result every last vertebrate has a blind spot where all of the nerves dive through the retina. This makes our eyes less efficient because the nerves block out light.

We're therefore stuck with the first design of the vertebrate eye and can't change it. There is no pathway to the more sensible design of the mollusk eye.

This is but one of many examples. For another one, relative developmental timing of growth is fixed across vertebrates. For example the "hand" grows before the "arm". The result is that pterodactyls, whose wings are entirely hands, could fly from birth. But birds (whose wings are arms) and bats (a mix of the two) can't fly from birth. No matter how desirable an evolutionary trait that may be.

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by mygo on Friday February 02, 2018 @10:48PM (#16296046)
> Do you think Nature will eventually hit on a global optimum?

No. At least not in the way described. Optimal as considered by whom? Us? We look at something and say this would function better than that, but is something that is optimal perfect? Basic microeconomics shows that perfection is sub-optimal due to the law of diminishing marginal return. Perfection is wasteful and unsustainable. What do we know to be optimal? From what I know, “adequate enough to reproduce” may not be perfect, but it might be brushing up against optimal in its “good enough and no more” / lagom nature. Mollusks have mollusk eyes. Can we know that humans would be better off with mollusk eyes without rewriting our evolutionary lineage for us to be more like mollusks in other imperfect ways?

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by Franciscouzo on Thursday February 01, 2018 @10:03PM (#16288057)
Now I wonder, has someone ran A/B tests but instead of using hill climbing for optimizing used simulated annealing?
Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by Franciscouzo on Wednesday January 31, 2018 @11:10PM (#16279593)
You won't get out of local minima/maxima with hill climbing though.

Eyeballs are nowhere near optimal either.

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by throwaway2048 on Wednesday January 31, 2018 @10:57PM (#16279543)
local maxima trap hill climbing style optimizing, many (most?) times improvements require jumping large sub optimal chasms that can never be crossed by gradual improvement.
Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by grogenaut on Wednesday January 31, 2018 @11:36PM (#16279667)
Says every product person I've ever worked with who didn't want to actually be data driven.
Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by ewjordan on Thursday February 01, 2018 @01:38AM (#16280006)
I understand the fear, though - when you're data driven, you can actually numerically measure the contribution of every feature that's tested, and in a lot of cases figure out the exact impact on revenue. In a culture where everything is tested, it's a very small step from there to stack ranking your product designers based mostly on how the features they designed did.

I'm not necessarily against that as a valid way to measure job performance if it's done intelligently (for one, realizing that there's a lot of blind luck and variance, and it takes time to smooth out) - I mean, if you're in sales and you're not booking any sales, you don't get to hide from that. But it's also really easy to get ranking and evaluation schemes wrong, so I understand why people would be nervous about it and prefer soft-skill-based evaluations instead.

Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by grogenaut on Thursday February 01, 2018 @10:21AM (#16282411)
valid point. However I also often see "politics optimized sales" where the current pet project of whoever has the most swing goes up front even if it's a terrible product and death to revenue.
Re:Facebook User Growth, Time Spent Fall on News Feed Changes by brain5ide on Thursday February 01, 2018 @01:18AM (#16279929)
There are two kinds of product people: those who can't design and those who don't understand statistics.