Even this could change if the miners and thought-leaders decide that it should.
The scarcity of Bitcoins is entirely a cultural delusion.
BTC proper is scarce, regardless of how many times the chain is forked.
You're right though, cultural convention decides which blockchain is the "real" Bitcoin. Most people are using BTC at the moment, but Bitmain takes payment exclusively in BCH.
This might seem like a semantic quibble, but I think it's important. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and only ever 21 million BCH. If Bitmain decided to charge 22 million BCH for their latest ASIC miner, nobody would ever be able to pay that bill regardless of how many forks there are.
For a blockchain fork to have any value whatsoever, people need to want to own it. Bitmain ASIC sales are driving demand for BCH. Every other Bitcoin fork is doing rather poorly.
Forks aren't diluting the value of BTC, because people know that BTC is the real asset. Everything else is like fool's gold.
You can clone the technology, but you can't clone societal acceptance.
"the relative abundance of asteroidal ore gives asteroid mining the potential to provide nearly unlimited resources, which would essentially eliminate scarcity for those materials"
Apparently with the lack of a strong gravity like Earth's to sink down heavy metals, they are way more accessible in smaller bodies like asteroids (Ceres and Vesta maybe?)
Personally, I think a better comparison is to the diamond trade. Through a series of machinations (price fixing, artificial supply constraint, marketing) diamonds are deeply overvalued if you consider just the fundamentals of them - aka they're in a bubble. However, due to those same expertly administered steps they've maintained a high retail value for decades.
And a "Ha, ha, just kidding, of course you're not a cop."
Crime dramas and action films tend to have an incredibly poor understanding of money, crime, policing, and Newton's laws of physics.
It's kind of like art. Spend $5k on some locals work and you might get $50 at a garage sale later on if you're lucky. Spend $5mil on a big name and you'll likely make it back, maybe profit, when you move it. The high and low end are basically different products that function differently in the market.
It's only shmucks overpaying for mediocre diamonds that lose out.
They've already noted that:
> people's perception of its value will change
But as they say, a gold bar will remain a gold bar, until and unless it is actively destroyed. Not so for bitcoins, which only remain so as long as they're actively maintained (not just individual coins but the mining networks which allows the creation of new transactions)
This doesn’t sound super useful, but it sounds about as useful as a bar of gold in a world where nobody considers gold to be valuable.
Nah, if civilization collapses then you'll still be able to use your bar of gold to bash in someone's skull and steal their canned beans (which, in the grim solar-flare induced darkness of 2020, will be worth their weight in bitcoins).
At least when you give a person a gold bar, you know that they now have the gold bar.
AFAIK there is no mechanism for the difficulty of new blocks to fall. And if the only use is creating transactions between yourself and yourself, well you can also collect gravel.
> This doesn’t sound super useful, but it sounds about as useful as a bar of gold in a world where nobody considers gold to be valuable.
Even in a sub-industrial context and ignoring pretty much all of human history and assuming your gold has lost all of its extrinsic worth, your bar of gold could be molded or cast into plenty of useful things (light reflectors, heat shields, baubles, weights). Bitcoins, not so much.
If there's no support network for your bitcoins, their value is 0, exactly. Even if you assume people stop caring for shiny imputrescible metals, its intrinsic property (of being shiny and imputrescible) pretty much ensures there will always be some demand for gold, and thus it will keep a non-zero price. Possibly low, but not actually zero.
It matters a lot of part of the reason to invest in them is as a hedge against general collapse of social institutions.
If you mean the former, then yes, gold is a good hedge. But if you mean the latter, then I would argue Bitcoin beats gold 100x.
The world economy has never collapsed, and if it did, it would be equivalent to the first option.
If you mean a short-term market downturn like the one that occurred with the ~2009 financial crisis, why would I even bother to hedge against that—and, if I did, why would I use an asset with high volatility to hedge against short-term market movement?
During such times you need an asset whose value will be greater than 0.
Or 2,000 years:
"the researchers look at pay for a Roman legionary, in the era of Emperor Augustus (27 B.C.-14 A.D.), who was paid a salary equivalent to 2.31 ounces of gold. A centurion was paid a salary equivalent to 38.58 ounces of gold.
Compared to modern US Army salaries, a private is making 20% more than the legionary, and a captain is making 30% less than the centurion" [1].
A counterpoint can be found in silver, where unexpected Spanish silver production in the New World prompted inflation around the world [2][3].
TL; DR For historical reasons, gold is grandfathered into our collective consciousness.
[1] http://www.mining.com/what-a-roman-centurions-pay-says-about...
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/mar/21/story-of-citi...
There are other ways though: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0058150/
Guess it's one of those things that seems impossible, until it isn't.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/platin...
That said, yes, asteroids mining could certainly affect the price of gold, but not necessarily destroy all its value. There's a price floor set by the industrial applications for it.
With BitCoin, there is no floor. If no one wants to buy your BitCoins, you can't do anything else with them. They are just data representing proof of work, but no outside value.
Bitcoin may change in value based on perception, it's supply will remain constant after it has all been mined, but it's existence and integrity relies on a large network continuing to exist.
To put it differently, in 50 years a gold bar is a gold bar, but in 50 years a Bitcoin may have no value because everyone stopped mining and the blockchain was destroyed by 51% attacks.