> The 'sane' people have missed out on some of the best returns in history.

Are these actual returns (ie, BTC sold for fiat) or paper returns on an assumption of market depth at current spot?

Serious question. Most bitcoin enthusiasts I know are either still holding their bitcoin, or traded them for other cryptocurrencies. Few have crystallised their gains in fiat.

I GPU-mined some BTC in 2011 and was a 100% HODLer until yesterday when I sold everything, including the forked BCH.

Now trying to figure out how to invest the proceeds into stocks. Somehow I doubt I will be able to get another 1000000% RoI over 6 years.

Everyone I know in BTC cashed out months/years ago. Makes them feel sick thinking about what they've missed out on recently. But I keep telling them they made a the same decision any rational actor would

and those I know who still hold BTC, the few that have tried to cash out so far haven't received a single dollar, euro, yen, or pound.

So what exactly have they "tried"? It's really pretty straightforward.

So if you transfer BTC into Coinbase, you can't get your money out?

$10k at a time, unless you make some kind of agreement.

There are also ATMs and other exchanges to tap. Cashing out a large sum is nearly impossible.

If you have millions worth of BTC, it's better to just auction them off at a discount to a large buyer.

To be clear: You can sell 100 btc today for USD. Coinbase will hold your USD (and the balance is insured). They will limit your withdraws to 10k, however. To take out more faster, you'll need to contact them and speak with a human. None of this seems unreasonable.

It paints a bleak picture of bitcoin runs on insolvent and poorly insured exchanges when the bottom falls out.

Coinbase is insured via FDIC, so I don't think "poorly" as an appropriate adverb.

Assuming everything goes smoothly in that regard, it’s still a limited coverage.

Nearly impossible? I don't have millions in BTC, but I do have six figures. I requested a limit increase with Coinbase and they bumped it up to 50K per day. I've had no problems withdrawing that.

My roommate sells $40k worth every 3 months. In cash. He travels a lot now.

>My roommate sells $40k worth every 3 months. In cash. He travels a lot now.

I seriously hope he's aware of the tax implications here. I feel like the IRS is going to be working some serious overtime after this nonsense is over.

Yeah, the first thing I would do is see a tax specialist and make sure I am setting aside enough to may my dues before I went on any sprees.

Good advice. We're in Canada so he should be ok.

Returns from greater fools? I'd better stay without profits than participate in a pyramid.

Plenty of us find value in a currency that isn't controlled by a central authority and isn't subject to inflation. We're betting others who value saving over risking their savings in the stock market will also value such a currency.

Plenty of us believe there's potential in programmable money. Certainly more potential than yet-another-social-media-platform-selling-ads.

You're welcome to dismiss Bitcoin as a bubble. You don't, however, speak for everyone who finds legitimate reasons to get involved.

"and isn't subject to inflation"

what do you call price of BC going up 16000 fold in 6 years??? the theory was you can buy the same good with the same amount of coin regardless of what dollar is doing, did that happen in practice? no, because no one knows true value of BC because there is no central authority. I am with you on hating the central authority but inflation part didn't work out as it was planned!

what you are mentioning is deflation, the opposite of inflation. there is a limited amount of bitcoins, so indeed it is indeed deflationary, unlike most fiat, that central authority keep printing anytime they need.

you are right, and why deflation better than inflation?

Well, inflation makes the money you have in the bank loose value over time. In extreme examples you have countries like Venezuela and results are bad: people struggle to keep their buying power, companies are leaving the country, imports become way more expensive, etc.

I don't think there is a real world example of a country with deflation, so I don't know if the opposite would be true or what real consequences would be, but you can expect the opposite to happen.

This is a rediculous argument. You can’t just introduce a radically new technology and currency to the market and expect it to instantly be priced at is true value.

Give it time. Bitcoin is a populist movement. Eventually the market will find it’s correct value and volatility will decline (volatility in bitcoin has actually been declining for some time now).

volatility has declined?

are you for real?

bitcoins were at 700 last year. And its 'value' dropped by 3000 just a few days ago, just to go back up. In what way has it dropped?

Percentages my friend.

Do you mean savings in a single overvalued highly volatile $100bln commodity are more sustainable than savings in the overvalued international market diversified between sectors and countries?

Yes. In my opinion the diversified international market is being propped up by coordinated actions by the worlds central banks. These markets lost more than 50% of their value in 2008. Central banks are keeping them afloat at the expense of people trying to simply save their money and not take on debt.

Janet Yellen recently expressed concern regarding the amount of debt in the economy. Apparently giving out loans at rates less than inflation causes a lot of malinvestment.

Those I know investing in Bitcoin do so because it's the only asset that exists outside the system we have today. It's the escape hatch. The volatility of course concerns us, but we believe in the fundamental ideology and in the long term believe it'll change the world. The monetary policy we have today is, quite frankly, insane.

People that purchase Bitcoin are not investing, they're gambling. It's unfortunate that this lesson wasn't learned from the very recent 2008 meltdown when many did the exact same thing with real estate. But, as you say, there's going to be a lot of mal-investment with so much cheap money floating around...

I purchased Bitcoin to escape what I believe is a financial system based on fraud. Who are you to say what my motivations are for purchasing Bitcoin? Who are you to speak for everyone else deciding to purchase Bitcoin? It takes quite an ego to presume everyone buying hasn't researched what they're buying and are just mindless sheep hoping for a payday.

I didn't claim to know your motivations. You could be entirely earnest in your motivations, but that doesn't change the facts on the ground: your "escape" is up to its elbows in the same fraudulent financial system that you decry. It's cheap money looking for easy returns that is fueling Bitcoin's rise.

"Cheap money" implies people are taking on debt to buy bitcoin. I see no evidence of this. Real estate, on the other hand...

So your position is that the world is awash in cheap money but Bitcoin, with its stratospheric rise, is the one thing that isn't a beneficiary of this cheap money ?

Debt is given for student loans, and education has never been more expensive.

Cheap debt is given for housing with a mere 10% down becoming quite common, and housing has never been more expensive.

Debt is being used by companies to buy back stocks, and stocks have never been more expensive.

Loans are being given at 0% interest to buy cars, and cars have never been more expensive.

Banks only loan money for the above things because they are backed by, in the banks opinion, collateral.

Which banks are loaning money to buy bitcoin? My position is the amount of debt being used to purchase bitcoin is very small relative to the rest of the economy.

The effect of cheap money on Bitcoin is a second-order effect whereby people have access to money they wouldn't otherwise have, due to additional debt. It's similar to the effect witnessed during the run-up to the 2008 meltdown where people were refinancing their homes and cashing out (on-paper) equity to use for propping up their lifestyle or buying more real estate.

The point is that it is impossible to separate Bitcoin and it's fate from the greater economy. Cheap money fuels bubbles. Last time it was real estate, this time it looks like Bitcoin.

Sounds like you're arguing for another global financial crisis that isn't limited to cryptocurrencies.

> isn't subject to inflation

lol

>isn't subject to inflation?

The USD is regularly debased to reward people who have taken on debt. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a fixed supply that cannot be manipulated.

Puh-lease. Everyone knows what will happen.

Madoff had pretty good returns too.