"Dylan and Luke are bounty-hunters of a new breed. They have to find the long-lost twins of suspects on FBI's Most Wanted list. On this episode of Face Hunters..."
Sounds like a movie plot to me (I made a guess at one if you dig through my comment history).
As far as I remember, in the big reveal, they did make a point of saying that faceid had a much lower chance of of colliding than the fingerprintid system.
> The probability of a false match is different for twins and siblings that look like you
So that means the 1 in a 1,000,000 chance doesn't make sense here because Apple said the probability is different in regards to twins and siblings that look like you. So @gre just spouted off the statistic when OP was asking what the probability might be in regards to twins and siblings, because Apple says that it is different.
Apple mentioned this on stage, which to me was quite significant since they don't waste a single word during their keynotes.
They still haven't given approximate collision chances and to me this must mean they think it's below the 1/50,000 touch id had.
My understanding is fingerprint collisions are highly random. That is very different from Face ID collisions since they are highly predictable.