Tesla will almost certainly be using a combination of materials on the model 3; mild steels (cheap and cheerful, easy to press), aluminium (lightweight) and boron steels (strong). To join these materials you need a variety of techniques including resistance spot welding, aluminium RSW (altogether more difficult than steel because of the low melting point and high conductivity, and the fact that weld spatter sticks to the tip of the gun), riveting (for steel-Al joints), structural adhesives, flow drill screws, laser welds etc. All of these processes take serious time to calibrate and get right, and some are not all that robust (by high volume standards).
There are many quality loops with a vehicle launch. The tooling needs to be proven out. Tools get shimmed relentlessly to make up for panel variations - panel quality can vary from batch to batch within a press run. This is especially true for mixed material cars.
Believe me, these are not easy problems to solve and nothing I've seen and heard out of Tesla makes me think they've addressed any of these issues.
Panels will not be consistent - they never are (and you'd be surprised at the variation). Rivets will tumble in feed tubes or get trapped in escapements. Vision systems will get confused by ambient light or reflections at certain times of day. Weld spatter will accumulate on tips, and frequent tip dressing will change weld parameters (timing, pressure, current etc). Adhesives will be effected by temperature, humidity. Batches of sealer might not be consistent. Weld timers will fail. Power supplies will fail. Flow drill screws will deform, go off centre and be a bitch to get right. Laser welder lens will accumulate weld crud. People will mis-load parts. PIA bits will come in below the required quality. Tools will get shimmed wrong. Robots will be badly programmed.
All of this stuff will take time to get right. It isn't impossible, but it is very difficult to get a line performing reliably. Tesla will be integrating a lot of new technologies, and at volumes that they are not used to, in an area with no serious history of car building, in a high wage state. I doubt they can get the people to manage the line and maintain this equipment.
Isn't this exactly what Musk and his employees are good at fixing? I have seen no reason to bet against Musk, Your complaint is the same as the others saying he cannot do something. You seem to have expertise in how a thing is done now, not in how well it could be done.
He might be late, but he won't fail. As it is this is the scheduled shortened by 6 months.
https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095
Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.
Note that the Prius doesn't have a CVT the way you'd normally think of one. It has a fixed planetary gear set which is able to somewhat emulate a CVT by using two electric motor-generators in conjunction with the engine. I mention this only because "CVT" usually makes people think of painful friction-based transmissions, whereas the Prius's transmission is much simpler than even a normal transmission. Your point that engineering skill and manufacturing quality are the main factors is spot-on.
Not arguing one way or another just providing data. My only electric car is an old converted Porsche. (Transmission is still there but you can basically slap it in third and leave it there) I'll never have to change the oil on that one again, and the electric motor is simple as can be. Battery management is kind of a pain, but that's because I don't have the kind of advanced battery management a mass market car would have.
I don't have enough data yet, but my experience suggests that electric cars will have a much lower maintenance load simply because of the reduced complexity. Of course all the automation and bells and whistles will still break, and the computer control systems will get wonky.
Even so, 200,000 miles is not too shabby. I don't think we have useful data on electric vehicles with that kind of mileage.
I have replaced timing belt and water pump and motor mounts in addition to regular fluid changes. The timing belt and water pump work was proactive maintenance (the timing belt drives the water pump so they suggest replacing both at once since it's not really any extra work).
The motor mounts simply wore out. Not expensive to replace. Rubber mounts will wear out on a Tesla too, eventually.
I used to park my car under trees that dropped leaves which blocked the battery compartment drainage holes and as I am in Scotland it can get quite wet. Ended up with car filled with 1" of water.... Interior of car had to be stripped, dried out and put back in by the dealer.
If you pick a better (albeit less appealing) electric car, the reliability rate skyrockets. For instance, using your own source -- https://www.truedelta.com/Nissan-LEAF-vs-Tesla-Model-S-relia...
It's also worth noting the Model S is, and is marketed to the audience for, a performance car. When you put down that kind of money, you're going to drive it like one. If you drove a Honda like a Ferrari you'd likely break a whole lot of it's "reliable" parts too.
I'm not saying Tesla build quality is higher or lower, I'm saying it's comparing apples and oranges. Once Tesla has a production everyman's car available, then you can actually say something. I know five people who own Model S's and they do not drive them like Accords, and if their stories are anything to go by, most people who own them drive them like performance cars. That means hard corners, rapid acceleration and deceleration, and high speeds (and given the crap quality of our roads around here, a lot of turbulence too).
It's also worth noting that Honda's have decades upon decades of previous models to build off of. Tesla's been around since what, 2003? And they didn't have a car to show until 2008.
Literally no one said that.
And that wasn't the criticism of your comment. The criticism was that you asserted that Hondas would be as reliable as Ferraris if they were driven hard. Lots of people do drive their Hondas hard. They replace the exhaust and lower the car and maybe throw on a wing and pretend they're on a track all the time. They drive these things hard as hell and they hold up very well.
> I'm not saying Tesla build quality is higher or lower, I'm saying it's comparing apples and oranges.
It's not apples and oranges. It's cars and cars. Yes, people drive their Teslas harder than their Nissan Leafs. What about M5s? How do Teslas compare? They should be far more reliable due to the vastly simpler drivetrain. Are they?
> It's also worth noting that Honda's have decades upon decades of previous models to build off of. Tesla's been around since what, 2003? And they didn't have a car to show until 2008.
So your argument about Tesla reliability is essentially that they are unreliable, because they're new?
Are they using some different much more advanced technology for those parts, or it's just some problem with the repair data?
My ICE car has regenerative braking as well, but I certainly didn't buy it for that, nor have I been able to discern the impact of it. I have driven EVs before and the regenerative braking is unmistakable.
It is very reliable not despite but because of it's unique powertrain concept.
It's not more unreliable than an ICE vehicle. It's significantly more simple in design and for repair. These claims are FUD.
This also discounts the difficultly of finding well space out chargers. It also discounts the schedule of your friend. This also makes me wonder what time you have left to socialize with your 'friend'.
If you are going to make bold claims some explanation of the detail would go a long way towards making them seem plausible.
A little context here might be good. The supposed disbelief of Blackberry was their carrier deal, as they themselves were not _allowed_ to sell phones with that feature set.
It wasn't unthinkable to build it engineering-wise. (It was expensive yet with underwhelming features, a 2G phone with no apps at a time when even feature phones had 3G and apps for almost five years.) It was unthinkable business-wise. Those rules are easier to play hard and fast with.
That there is unfounded criticism doesn't mean all criticisms is unfounded.
"RIM was even in denial the day after the iPhone was announced with all hands meets claiming all manner of weird things about iPhone: it couldn't do what they were demonstrating without an insanely power hungry processor, it must have terrible battery life, etc. Imagine their surprise when they disassembled an iPhone for the first time and found that the phone was battery with a tiny logic board strapped to it. It was ridiculous, it was brilliant."
Steve Jobs didn't promise production of 300mil iPhones in a year when they announced it.
It's the law.
They currently produce ~25K Model X and S per quarter, and they're having supply issues with battery packs. (see the other, recent thread on them)
How in the world are they going to be producing 20K Model 3s by December, without cannibalizing their more profitable existing sales, and judging by their own previous growth rate and demand problems?
They are building a huge factory for making battery packs in Nevada. That's already operational and will be more so by December. I imagine that's part of the solution.
Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things are considered unthinkable and impossible only until someone finds a way to do them, after which they are retroactively declared obvious and inevitable.
Certainly, Tesla seem to have the right ideas: Electric cars are inherently simpler, mechanically speaking, than gasoline cars, and they're leveraging this further by reducing the options and variability on the Model 3 to the absolute minimum. They also hired Peter Hochholdinger from Audi as VP of production, and he is pursuing a pretty extreme form of Industry 4.0[1] — with everything in their production process being instrumented, automated and designed for easy replacement.[2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0 [2] http://www.mljournal-digital.com/meleadershipjournal/october...