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Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by petercooper on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:20PM (#1428653)
This reminds me of the guy who dated the somewhat gawky looking girl at high school who ended up blossoming into the most gorgeous young woman you could imagine. Either that, or the US has, behind the scenes, known about this all along.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by dminor on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:29PM (#1428670)
The Congo is one of the most mineral rich regions in the world, so it's not necessarily a ticket to happily ever after.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by sdurkin on Monday June 14, 2010 @01:32AM (#1428994)
It goes by various names: the Resource Curse, Paradox of Plenty, the Dutch Disease, etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

Finding tremendous mineral resources usually encourages corruption, collapses immature democratic institutions, and hollows out the industrial sector of the economy.

Nigeria, Holland, Congo, Venezuela, the story is always the same. The only country which has managed to avoid this situation is Norway.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by DTrejo on Monday June 14, 2010 @04:08AM (#1429169)
If anyone wants to read about how Norway avoided this: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/99680a04-92a0-11de-b63b-00144feabd...
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by jessriedel on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:34PM (#1430123)
I've only skimmed the FT article, but isn't the simplest explanation that Norway was a westernized, relatively rich democracy unlike the other examples such as Saudi Arabia and Venezuela? Yes, Norway wasn't as rich in 1968 is it is now, but the relative disparity between Norway and the outside countries which wanted to exploit the oil wasn't nearly as great as the other examples.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by ananthrk on Monday June 14, 2010 @07:06AM (#1429338)
Thanks. The article was very good. You should submit that as a separate entry.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by DTrejo on Tuesday June 15, 2010 @09:24PM (#1434420)
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by binarycheese on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:38PM (#1430139)
This is really a good read. You should definitely submit it separately here on HN
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by eru on Monday June 14, 2010 @07:18AM (#1429354)
> The only country which has managed to avoid this situation is Norway.

And perhaps Britain? But that was before any country had any industrial sector at all, and the Britons used their coal and iron ore to start the original industrial revolution.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Retric on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:34PM (#1430127)
The USA also had/has massive natural resources reserves relative to its population size. Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Helium, etc.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by eru on Monday June 14, 2010 @01:00PM (#1430217)
And all the rivers run in the right direction. In contrast to, say, Russia's rivers which mostly run into ice seas or the inland water bodies.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by patrickk on Monday June 14, 2010 @09:10AM (#1429566)
White Paper on plans to privatize Iraq's oil industry (dated but an interesting read):

http://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/185/40...

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by ojbyrne on Monday June 14, 2010 @07:59AM (#1429428)
Canada? Australia?
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by SkyMarshal on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:33PM (#1428782)
Absolutely correct. That's why we (US) need to go ahead and just steal all those minerals, to save the Afghanis from another couple generations of civil war and strife. It would help reduce the US national debt too, a win-win for everyone.

PS - Obama if you're reading this, I'm available for hire as PR consultant or Press Secretary. I'm that good.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by JoeAltmaier on Monday June 14, 2010 @09:15AM (#1429577)
Read DTrejo's link?
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by tsally on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:18PM (#1428754)
In fact, it's often a ticket to quite the opposite for the natives of the region.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Alex3917 on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:22PM (#1428661)
Either way, this is pretty much the worst thing that could have possibly happened to Afghanistan.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by alexgartrell on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:38PM (#1428686)
Why? Every industrialized country on the planet now has an interest in making Afghanistan an industrialized country so that they can get a piece of that sweet lithium pie. Granted, there are chances for folks to take advantage and Afghanistan to get some generally raw deals, but it's overwhelmingly better than being poor with an economy built primarily on the drug trade.

Afghanistan went from having no chance to a moderate chance. It's no cause for celebration, but it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world either.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by MichaelSalib on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:47PM (#1428698)
Why? Because of the Resource Curse.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by tptacek on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:08PM (#1428735)
Most of the supposed reasons behind the "curse" assume that there's an already-functioning economy to wreck. Minerals in Afghanistan aren't going to wreck their nonexistent licit agriculture output. Further, Afghanistan is already in a state of chronic intense conflict, which neutralizes another arm of the "curse".
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by MichaelSalib on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:14PM (#1428749)
The presence of vast mineral wealth will encourage the continuation of chronic intense conflict. And as long as said conflict continues, foreign investment will be very limited, which means it will be very difficult to begin large scale mining operations.

If you were a mining engineer, would you want to travel to Afghanistan and spend a year or two setting up a new mine there?

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by tptacek on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:34PM (#1428783)
Conflict in Afghanistan was going to continue until the West left. Would I want to live in Afghanistan to set up a new mine? Depends on how much you paid me. There are already many tens of thousands of private contractors in war zones.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by fgf on Monday June 14, 2010 @01:51AM (#1429019)
the arabs do well, africans don't, who knows what will happen to the afghans?
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by WorkerBee on Monday June 14, 2010 @05:20AM (#1429234)
the arabs do well

Do they? The Saudi Arabian ruling classes do very well indeed, but how does the average Saudi do? Hint: google "Saudi Arabia inequality" and "Saudi Arabia oppression". It's the resource curse at work.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by fgf on Monday June 14, 2010 @11:15AM (#1429881)
How is the lack of resource curse working out in Yemen and Egypt? (nations fortunate enough to be without oil) They are doing even worse. Arab nations with oil do better than arab nations without oil. I'm only arguing against the notion that large mineral resources will always be a catastrophe. Yemen and egypt has about a tenth of Saudi Arabias gdp pr. capita. Saudi arabia, the emirates and kuwait all have welfare states for their citizens who are better off (materially) than egyptians or yemenites. Those (really) poor and oppressed people are guest workers. They were desperately poor before they went to Saudia Arabia, the Saudis merely gave them a marginally better option.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by WorkerBee on Tuesday June 15, 2010 @07:28AM (#1432392)
Those (really) poor and oppressed people are guest workers.

That's the official line, anyway. The whole issue of who is a citizen, and who has merely been there for years is part of it.

They were desperately poor before they went to Saudi Arabia, the Saudis merely gave them a marginally better option.

the Saudis gave them what looked like a marginally better option.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by fgf on Tuesday June 15, 2010 @09:50AM (#1432725)
"That's the official line, anyway. The whole issue of who is a citizen, and who has merely been there for years is part of it."

It's not a difficult issue at all, you're a citizen if the law says so. No one promised guest workers citizenship and I doubt they expected it. Only westerners subscribe to the novel idea that anyone they let into their countries are also owed a part of it (citizenship, welfare etc.).

"the Saudis gave them what looked like a marginally better option."

There are five million guest workers, a lack of horror stories would be surprising. I'm not convinced coercion to stay is widespread before I see some statistics, if coercion to stay is not widespread then I trust that most of the five million guest workers know what is best for them.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by MichaelSalib on Monday June 14, 2010 @10:52PM (#1431658)
Nobody is claiming that the Resource Curse explains all possible development outcomes.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Alex3917 on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:27PM (#1428770)
"It's overwhelmingly better than being poor with an economy built primarily on the drug trade."

Not necessarily. The U.S. economy was built on drugs when it was starting out. Even today most of our famous colleges are named after drug families.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by jeffcoat on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:04AM (#1428843)
It would be interesting to see numbers on just how dependent the early American colonies were on tobacco exports. That's the sort of thing that would tend to be de-emphasized in low-level history textbooks.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by buss on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:53PM (#1428827)
I have never heard this. Citation please?
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by aristus on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:54PM (#1428828)
Ah, yes, Notorious M.I.T.

Which famous colleges do you have in mind here?

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Alex3917 on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:13AM (#1428862)
Yale, Brown, Duke, Kennedy School, Georgetown, Stanford, etc. Those are just a few I can think of off the top of my head, I'm sure there are at least another twenty.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by gruseom on Monday June 14, 2010 @03:01AM (#1429090)
Stanford made his money in railroads, not necessarily in the most seemly way, but hardly a drug. He did own wineries in Northern CA, but I was under the impression that those came much later. Are they what you were referring to?
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Alex3917 on Monday June 14, 2010 @10:41AM (#1429779)
According to Wikipedia he owned the largest vineyard in the world.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by starkfist on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:34AM (#1428900)
They aren't "famous colleges" if you can't think of them off the top of your head.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by eru on Monday June 14, 2010 @08:48AM (#1429510)
Depends. By this metric -- applied to me -- there are no famous American-football players, either.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by joeyo on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:08AM (#1428855)
The only obvious one I can think of is Duke.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by starkfist on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:01AM (#1428839)
LOL. What?? The Puritans were drug mules? What on earth are you talking about?
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Alex3917 on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:22AM (#1428881)
Tobacco, the triangle trade, opium, weed, etc. Several of the states actually had laws on the books that made it a criminal offense to not grow marijuana.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by JoeAltmaier on Monday June 14, 2010 @09:18AM (#1429584)
Yes, but hemp was used in industry to make rope, not smoked. Easy to make sensationalist remarks; a little responsible research takes time and trouble.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Alex3917 on Monday June 14, 2010 @11:19AM (#1429899)
Regardless of whether or not it was smoked, industrial hemp is still considered a drug today. IIRC you're actually eligible for the death penalty if you grow enough of it.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by starkfist on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:42AM (#1428917)
I was referring to "Even today most of our famous colleges are named after drug families"
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by edge17 on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:55PM (#1428831)
i'm pretty sure the Afghans aren't crying
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by waterlesscloud on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:38PM (#1428688)
Calling this the worst thing that could have possibly happened to Afghanistan indicates both a lack of historical knowledge and imagination.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by CamperBob on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:43PM (#1428693)
Calling this the worst thing that could have possibly happened to Afghanistan indicates both a lack of historical knowledge and imagination.

Yep, now they can join modern, enlightened, resource-rich nations like Saudi Arabia and the Congo.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by bokonist on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:52PM (#1428825)
The Belgian Congo did very well for itself. It had a very fast growing economy, the resources really helpd. Read about it: http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,866343,00.html The question is whether Afghanistan can find it's Governor Pétillon. My guess is no, because democracy does not produce men like Petlillon.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by fgf on Monday June 14, 2010 @02:08AM (#1429034)
It would be interesting to see an estimate of how many lives the disappearance of men like him from africa cost. And have you, by the way, been reading mencius moldbug? (http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2009/08/from-cr...)
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by bokonist on Monday June 14, 2010 @10:30PM (#1431629)
Yes
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by td on Monday June 14, 2010 @05:26AM (#1429242)
One might say, the Belgians did very well for themselves in the Congo.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by bokonist on Monday June 14, 2010 @10:35AM (#1429761)
That they did - they made money by growing the pie - http://www.paulgraham.com/good.html
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by td on Monday June 14, 2010 @11:15AM (#1429884)
Sure, growing the pie, and then eating it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_Congo#Colonial_economic...

I don't quite understand how pg's essay applies to the Belgian Congo, is there some specific paragraph you are referring to?

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by bokonist on Monday June 14, 2010 @08:39PM (#1431468)
You seem to imply that because the Belgians made a profit off the Congo natives that colonialism was bad for the natives. But when you make a profit by growing the pie, the result can be good for both the natives and the colonizers. The material quality of live for Congo natives has declined remarkably since the end of colonialism. As one native puts it: "Even if you go 1,000 kilometers down this river, you won't see a single sign of development. When the whites left, we didn't just stay where we were. We went backwards.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1713275,00.htm... http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1713275,00.htm...

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by td on Tuesday June 15, 2010 @04:11PM (#1433739)
There is no doubt that, in large parts of Congo, people are worse off than they were ca. 1960. But do you seriously propose a return to colonialism as the solution? Because that is what your governor Pétillon remark seems to say... I don't believe such plan could get major support in Congo atm.

My objection is with the after the fact justification of colonialism. Charity was never an objective of colonial efforts, it would be very naive to think otherwise. The fact that the rapid decolonization (which was by no means the end of foreign intervention in Congolese affairs) did not lead to a stable and prosperous independant state, is no argument in favour of colonization either.

I'm honestly surprised of the upvotes these neo-colonial comments are getting.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by tptacek on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:10PM (#1428738)
Most people in Afghanistan would be far better off as citizens of Saudi Arabia. All three of these countries are categorically worse than the US or Europe, but "worse" is not a binary condition.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by MichaelSalib on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:20PM (#1428757)
Given how Saudi Arabia treats non-Arabs in Saudi Arabia, I shudder to think of how horrifically they might abuse Afghanis.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Daniel_Newby on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:46PM (#1428805)
Afghanistan has few mainstream Arabs and very few Africans.

Look to the Philippines if you want an example of what good can eventually come from U.S. occupation of a fractious country. And, unlike the Philippines, Afghanistan is not an archipelago whose thousands of islands practically define the concept of obnoxious-natural-barrier.

The Chinese influence bodes well too. China practices fair and even-handed oppression, rather than trying to exterminate the One True Enemy.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by td on Monday June 14, 2010 @05:21AM (#1429236)
> Afghanistan has few mainstream Arabs and very few Africans.

I don't understand what this has to do with it. Do you mean that absence of Africans and Arabs helps in successfully building up a democracy and mining minerals?

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Daniel_Newby on Monday June 14, 2010 @07:47AM (#1429406)
It's pretty much a prerequisite.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Daniel_Newby on Monday June 14, 2010 @11:32AM (#1429936)
If you disagree, then say why, don't suppress something you simply don't like. The fact is that few Arab and African cultures have ever seen much industrial success, and then only for short times. Moreover, the best known way of turning a civilized city into a demilitarized zone is to import Arabs or Africans into it, and this has been demonstrated by numerous experiments.
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by jbooth on Monday June 14, 2010 @12:09PM (#1430044)
Oh great, you're one of those bold truth tellers who can proudly espouse racism while the rest of us are too PC to recognize the obvious.

Right?

Go read some history. Specifically, all of it regarding the middle east and africa up until the present day. Heck, you can even just look at a map for a few minutes and marvel at how straight the lines are. Maybe you'll reach some more enlightened conclusions about the way things are.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Daniel_Newby on Monday June 14, 2010 @02:20PM (#1430475)
How much would I have to pay for you to take a job waiting tables in each of (1) Frankfurt, (2) Johannesburg, (3) Harlem, (4) Omaha, and (5) Mecca? While living openly in your native persona.

I bet the answers don't have a lot to do with local rents and food prices. And for Johannesburg and Mecca tend towards infinity.

The way things are is that some people are uncivilized and appear unable to become civilized. This is not racism, just the data as they are. Which is why, in the context of this discussion, Afghanistan need not necessarily turn into the Congo because it did not start out as the Congo, and why the Chinese influence is not so ominous.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by jbooth on Monday June 14, 2010 @02:36PM (#1430517)
I don't think anyone's going to pay me the salary I expect to wait tables.

I'd much rather live in Harlem than Omaha or Frankfurt. Culture and metropolitanism are far more important to me than the amount of pigment in my immediate neighborhood, and it's very safe these days.

Your definitions of civilized are an opinion. The citizens of Mecca think you're uncivilized for a number of reasons, and I think you're uncivilized for others.

Anyways, I'm just thankful that most people don't think like you do -- I certainly wouldn't want to be lumped into the same category as you for the crime of (presumably) sharing a pigment level. People might conclude it's the natural state of white people to be deliberately ignorant about everything except their own little suburban town in rural America.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by Daniel_Newby on Tuesday June 15, 2010 @11:39AM (#1433028)
It has nothing to do with pigment levels, bigotry, racism, or any other ism. There are cultures who will stone you to death for wearing the wrong clothing, or tear you limb from limb on the spur of the moment for practicing witchcraft. They merely remain violent and barbaric when they get oil or diamonds or whatever; the natural resources do not make them that way. (The claim was that the natural resources were what changed Saudi Arabia and the Congo into violent cesspools.)
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by chopsueyar on Monday June 14, 2010 @03:08PM (#1430612)
What is a mainstream Arab?
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by waterlesscloud on Sunday June 13, 2010 @10:55PM (#1428718)
It's really too bad there are no counter examples.

Oh, wait.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by MichaelSalib on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:11PM (#1428743)
What would the counterexamples be?

Look, I'm sure there are countries that might be able to successfully navigate a resource find like this. They'd probably be places with few internal divisions, a relatively homogeneous population, a history of stable government and well established cultural and legal norms for dividing and sharing power. You know, the kind of place where everyone really really believes that if their candidate loses an election, they will not be dragged out into the street and shot by the other candidate's private militia. Afghanistan fails all those criteria. So, if you can find any examples of a country that fails as badly as Afghanistan does successfully avoiding the resource curse, I'd be real interested in studying it.

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by blasdel on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:12PM (#1428744)
No realistic ones, no.

Do you really expect Afghanistan to turn into Canada or Australia, much less Norway?

Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by lowkey on Sunday June 13, 2010 @11:03PM (#1428728)
The Economic Hitmen Strike Again: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7Fzm1hEiDQ&; (animation)
Re:U.S. Discovers Est. $1 Trillion of Minerals in Afghanistan by arnorhs on Monday June 14, 2010 @07:06AM (#1429337)
So, did he also beat her up constantly, repeatedly for a long time?