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Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by mabbo on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:24PM (#13709806)
People get upset by the 'superhero' status of Elon Musk. Nerds everywhere worship the guy, buy his cars, watch his SpaceX launches.

But honestly, let him have it, I say. He's earning it. He's taking huge risks and succeeding where others weren't willing to try.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Someone1234 on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:59PM (#13710065)
I'm glad that people look up to someone like that.

What I am disappointed by is how his fans react to criticism. There's healthy respect and there's unhealthy worship. When you have a bunch of people who will get really upset due to any criticism that is on the worship side of the coin. Any community with voting arrows (HN/Reddit) suppresses anything negative said (no matter how supportable/well constructed the criticism may be).

Plus these same fans love to attack competition who are also doing really cool stuff instead of supporting them (e.g. Orbital ATK, Faraday Future, NIKOLA ONE, et al). Using arguments that are often double standards or ignore Tesla/SpaceX's own history to make them work.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by toomuchtodo on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:26PM (#13710243)
Huge fan boy here. I'm not saying he does no wrong; he's ruined his first, second, and third marriages. He's probably not around at all for his five kids. Its assuredly soul crushing (workload/expectation-wise, not mission, which makes a huge difference) working for him.

But he's changing the world. So I give the guy wide latitude with my opinion. At least he's not yet another useless silicon valley billionaire. He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by idiot_stick on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:55PM (#13710407)
>He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO

This is a great place to meet in the middle between the cynics and fanboys.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by dingo_bat on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @09:34PM (#13711182)
> He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO.

I'd say Bill gates still retains that title.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by erikpukinskis on Thursday February 23, 2017 @12:11AM (#13711801)
Only if you ignore his time at Microsoft.

Yes, he has done great things since he left. But he set the computer industry back decades with his predatory business tactics.

A big part of the reason why we have so many walled gardens now is because he started the trend. And we're lucky we have multiple walled gardens. If he had succeeded a little longer we'd still only have one big one.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by mncharity on Thursday February 23, 2017 @02:01AM (#13712185)
Isn't Gates still heavily invested and active in Intellectual Ventures? And the Gates Foundation involved as well? My impression is Gates and Myhrvold are still a team, though like Microsoft itself, now focus their efforts on creating and monetizing intellectual property.

So one became a humanitarian statesman? And the other became king of the patent trolls, the most feared man in the Valley? Or perhaps soon, humanitarian statesman and inquisitive chef? Image management is mazing.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by lawnchair_larry on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @11:10PM (#13711565)
You must be young.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by adwn on Thursday February 23, 2017 @05:23AM (#13712862)
> You must be young.

This is condescending and not constructive. You should know better than to post like this on HN.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by mikeash on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:32PM (#13710280)
Orbital and such are doing great things, but Faraday appears to be a bunch of scammers with no product. Maybe they'll prove me wrong, but until they demonstrate that they have something, I don't see what's wrong with criticizing them.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by agumonkey on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:57PM (#13710411)
He's surfing a thin line these days. I'm not fond of the let's bore tunnels before going to mars games. But yeah, overall he bootstrapped many heavy innovations and drive all around, and inspired a lot of people. All that almost in a vacuum, and globally he's a trustworthy producer (he values value, his cars are tank secured for instance, not crass profit)
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by jamornh on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:13PM (#13710504)
I'm of the view that boring a tunnel is part of his bootstrap plan for bringing the same tech to Mars. It's likely that we will have to dig living spaces underground on Mars and bootstrapping better digging tech by finding a good use for it here on earth first is a great bootstrapping strategy.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by agumonkey on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:16PM (#13710518)
Quite plausible indeed. Very much Musk to cross pollinate ideas (solar panel, chargers, tiles, batteries, cars)
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by dechov on Thursday February 23, 2017 @03:16AM (#13712454)
Tesla's mission is a prerequisite for SpaceX's— it's difficult to establish modern civilization on Mars, but establishing fossil fuel-powered civilization there is a non-starter.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by stcredzero on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:20PM (#13710540)
his cars are tank secured for instance, not crass profit

What is "tank secured?"

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by agumonkey on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:26PM (#13710575)
Didn't Tesla forced crash tests to recalibrate their grading system because Tesla literally went up to 11 ?
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by will_hughes on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @08:06PM (#13710778)
I think you're mixing up two things.

Consumer Reports's testing which went off their scale[0], and the NHTSA crash testing which apparently broke the machine for the roof crush test[1]

[0] http://www.autonews.com/article/20150827/RETAIL03/150829910/...

[1] https://www.wired.com/2013/08/tesla-model-s-crash-test/

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by stcredzero on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:50PM (#13710697)
This early jet airliner was "tank tested."

http://www.dh-aircraft.co.uk/aircraft/dh106/comet1/inquiry/

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by tradersam on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:27PM (#13709834)
Especially with SpaceX. He's pushing his engineers hard to get some pretty cool stuff done, and hopefully humanity benefits from it in the long run.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by codecamper on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:39PM (#13709933)
It's technology. Once it exists, it will continue existing. Every generation must use it wisely and ethically.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by hwillis on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:56PM (#13710052)
Proof increases investor confidence, but that's hardly everything. Tesla contributes somewhat to open source, but ITAR and shrewdness means a ton of their tech is classified. If they folded, a great deal of that would be bureaucratically inaccessible, gone, or irrelevant. If we wanted to go to the moon again, we would basically have to start over from scratch. The Saturn V plans exist but the infrastructure, manufacturing techniques, and hardware are all gone.

Plans are 10% of actually building something, at that level. Materials aren't legos, each product needs to be qualified and have its idiosyncrasies addressed. Even at the consumer level, when you change manufacturers you often have to retool your process because while the specs are the same, you're delivered something different.

Keeping technology at the same level requires ongoing engineering. When that engineering is removed, the technology decays. It very quickly becomes a matter of reinvention rather than rebuilding.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by stcredzero on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:21PM (#13710550)
Plans are 10% of actually building something, at that level. Materials aren't legos, each product needs to be qualified and have its idiosyncrasies addressed

Something often forgotten when companies offshore production.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by marchenko on Thursday February 23, 2017 @02:06AM (#13712205)
Andy Grove wrote some great pieces about the loss of engineering muscle memory.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by joss82 on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:47PM (#13709995)
Not so sure about it. Look at Concorde.

Musk actually said that technology does not move forward if there is nobody (or no company or no government) to push it forward.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by mikeash on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:33PM (#13710614)
The technology for Concorde is still around. What disappeared is the economic case for it. (One might argue that the economic case never existed, or disappeared before it even started flying.) If aliens showed up tomorrow and said they would enslave the human race unless we built a Concorde-level airliner, we'd have no major trouble getting it done.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by dragonwriter on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:37PM (#13710638)
> Not so sure about it. Look at Concorde.

The absence of a business case is not the same as the absence of technology.

Technology for supersonic aircraft has moved forward since the Concorde. Economically viable applications for that technology for commercial passenger transport have not, however, appeared. (Or, if they have, they haven't been recognized.)

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Reason077 on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @08:38PM (#13710913)
Even if there is an economic case for supersonic civil aviation, considerable environmental problems must first be overcome.

Given their extreme noise, pollution, and ozone layer disruption it's certainly a good thing there aren't hundreds or thousands of Concorde-equivalents plying the skies today.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by bb611 on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:20PM (#13710213)
Concorde may have failed but jet travel is far more common and affordable today than when it was rolled out.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by ghaff on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:07PM (#13710469)
Because technology is in service of individual and consumer needs. If there isn't a sustainable business model for supersonic passenger flight then it doesn't exist. And, frankly, it's not up to government to provide that.

Technology is both economics and engineering. Just because something can be done, doesn't mean it should be done if no one is willing to cover the costs.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by stcredzero on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:38PM (#13710650)
There is another thesis that technology no longer disappears anymore. It will remain in some dormant form. Some crazy hobbyist group in the US, Europe, or Japan will lovingly curate it. Even now, I think you can charter the operation of a restored supersonic aircraft, if you have enough cash. Not sure if any have an extra seat for a passenger, though.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by soperj on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:44PM (#13709970)
How were the pyramids built?
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by jfoutz on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:12PM (#13710162)
I think i get your point, but tech losses seem to be associated with cultural collapse or exhaustion of a special resource. Roman concrete, Greek fire, and vanadium steel might be more illustrative choices.

I don't think the Egyptians used magic, perhaps they knew a trick or two we don't know about, i don't think there's any writing left about the construction techniques.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by adwn on Thursday February 23, 2017 @06:07AM (#13713004)
> I don't think the Egyptians used magic, perhaps they knew a trick or two we don't know about, i don't think there's any writing left about the construction techniques.

The Egyptians' "trick" was massive amounts of human labor over a long timespan. Nothing you couldn't do a lot faster today if you were willing to spend the money (and manage to get the permits).

The construction of the pyramids is not impressive from a technological point of view, but perhaps from a logistical point of view.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by edw on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:20PM (#13710214)
Or, more recently: I've read that we have collectively lost the knowledge and skill necessary to build a piano with a quality comparable to the best ever made. (Wish I had a citation…)
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Retric on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:02PM (#13710089)
It really does not matter as we could build them today with a lot less effort.

It would cost something like $5 billion today and would take ~2,000 people ~5 years. Which is relatively speaking a lot less expensive. Put another way, Bill G could build ~17 of them in his lifetime and not be broke.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by stcredzero on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:26PM (#13710574)
It would cost something like $5 billion today and would take ~2,000 people ~5 years. Which is relatively speaking a lot less expensive. Put another way, Bill G could build ~17 of them in his lifetime and not be broke.

Awesome! What's at one time only the province of the greatest empire on the planet could become just one of many of a billionaire's projects. Let's scale this out from the present day with something of seemingly unattainable current value: How about The United States of America? Maybe several decades hence, a billionaire will have made himself the equivalent? Colonization of Mars, anyone?

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by __jal on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @08:20PM (#13710831)
There's a certain (supposed) billionaire who wants a big wall. Not quite as inspiring to me personally, but, well, tastes vary, I guess.

Also, he's planning to spend your money on it, not his.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by dingo_bat on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @09:49PM (#13711233)
Mexico's money, to be accurate.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Retric on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @09:52PM (#13711246)
I always took that as coded language for 'I don't actually want a wall' I just want to talk about it.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by mabbo on Thursday February 23, 2017 @07:55AM (#13713463)
Putting taxes/tariffs on goods that Americans buy coming from Mexico is not Mexico paying for anything.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by dingo_bat on Thursday February 23, 2017 @10:47PM (#13720778)
I think it is.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by kbenson on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:28PM (#13710260)
But that's besides the point. We are thousands of years in the future from that point, with thousands of years of technological advancements. What would a civilization relatively recently after the loss of that knowledge do? Could they even do it?

The point is that technology can be lost. Sure, we may have re-learned the technology in the intervening millennia, but we wouldn't have to re-learn it if it wasn't lost in the first place.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Retric on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @11:42PM (#13711701)
You are assuming it was lost in the same time period. Instead, there was ever refined stone construction techniques through medieval Cathedral's. So, sure 4500 years ago making a giant stone hill was hard, but the 1311 Lincoln Cathedral @ 524 ft was actually significantly taller structure and far more difficult.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by soperj on Thursday February 23, 2017 @01:38PM (#13716444)
It's not a stone hill. It was completely smooth before the limestone casing was removed. Also I don't know how 524ft is _significantly_ taller than 481 feet.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Retric on Friday February 24, 2017 @12:55PM (#13725886)
If the pyramid was 524ft tall it would have taken at 29+% more stone which is kind of a large difference assuming they did not need to change the slope. Anyway, scaling buildings is a lot more complex as every extra foot get's harder than the last. In design you don't really build up, you keep adding layers under your existing structure that need to hold it up.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by soperj on Thursday February 23, 2017 @01:48PM (#13716544)
It was estimated they took 14 years to build.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by true_religion on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:59PM (#13710066)
Lots of technology is non obvious, even simple tech. The wheel wasn't widely known in the Americas. Large wheel wagons like you see in rickshaws were not widely known in the West.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by hobofan on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:03PM (#13710092)
Are you looking for the answer "slave labor"?
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by edw on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:58PM (#13710424)
Sorry, the Egyptian pyramids were build with tax labor, not slave labor.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by ericd on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:08PM (#13710136)
By default, technology decays over time as knowledge is lost. It takes active effort to keep things where they are, let alone keep pushing them forward.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by cmdrfred on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:41PM (#13709942)
Creating an entirely new industry I'd say. He's at a Henry Ford or Edison level.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by jaimex2 on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:35PM (#13710301)
The superhero status has nothing to do with it.

Tesla is reaping the rewards for making a good EV and backing it with the right infrastructure, its not rocket science.

If the motor industry had actually not made a half bothered attempt at EVs and actually tried to innovate they would have had similar success.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by tokipin on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @11:20PM (#13711596)
exactly, people are reversing cause and effect here. first Tesla made desirable cars, then people started fanboying Musk. See this Google trends for Elon Musk searches:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=elon%20m...

Which only started picking up after the Model S was released and started getting great reviews.

The idea that Musk is a "master salesman" or whatever is pretty dumb if you watch any of his interviews. He's definitely good at business, but his fame has been fueled by his achievements alone.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by shanemhansen on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:26PM (#13710576)
> its not rocket science.

They have that too!

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by gutnor on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:36PM (#13710310)
I guess that because he is painted as real life Iron Man. A sort of engineering genius, personally involved in the technical details of all his business ventures.

He is a brilliant business man with a vision that is refreshing compared to others. He deserves a superhero status for that. Genius engineer ? That's going a bit too far and I guess that rubs the people you mentioned the wrong way.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Florin_Andrei on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @05:55PM (#13710044)
> succeeding where others weren't willing to try

Willing, or able.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by applecore on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @07:55PM (#13710723)
Elon Musk's businesses have benefited from billions in federal and state government subsidies and low-interest loan programs over the years.

He's taking huge risks because other people are footing the bill.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by __jal on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @08:16PM (#13710821)
And the legacy energy companies are still raking billions in subsidies every year, even before you get to things that aren't counted that way. And the industrial farmers are still subsidized to grow various things.

And FedEx has a huge implicit subsidy via road maintenance. And Walmart, via various welfare policies. And insurance companies heavily benefit from various government policies.

I can think of these all day.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by Reason077 on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @08:48PM (#13710958)
Elon Musk's businesses have benefited from billions in federal and state government subsidies and low-interest loan programs over the years.

Billions in loans? Tesla received a $465M loan from the department of energy in 2010, which they paid back in full, with interest, by 2013.

As for subsidies (ZEV credits, EV incentives, state tax credits, etc)? Tesla receives absolutely nothing that isn't available to all US car manufacturers.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by lutorm on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @08:09PM (#13710795)
I'm not that familiar with Tesla, but what "federal and state government subsidies and low-interest loans" have SpaceX gotten? Unless you count NASA contracts as "subsidies and loans", of course, which is absurd.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by xyzzyz on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @08:06PM (#13710777)
The same could be said about all other businesses funded by VC money, hedge funds and IPOs. One might question whether governments should be involved in market investing, but it's not like Musk is some kind of outlier here.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by mikeash on Thursday February 23, 2017 @10:18AM (#13714530)
Traditional car companies have benefitted from trillions in subsidies by being allowed to poison the population without paying for the costs.

I'd much rather have a car company take some of my money in taxes than take my health by polluting.

Remember leaded gasoline? That's only been fully banned in the US for about two decades. Entire generations were damaged, like Flint, MI on a national scale.

But ooh noo, Elon Musk takes some of our taxes, the horror.

Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by dingo_bat on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @09:56PM (#13711263)
So let them stop loaning him money. He's a businessman, he has a duty to exploit any loan from anybody, as long as it's legal. If the peyote really had a problem with it they would cause the government to stop offering loans to Tesla.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by diebir on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @06:18PM (#13710200)
No superhero. Collaborates with Trump to get SpaceX contracts. F. him.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by lutorm on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @10:29PM (#13711392)
Uh what? You're going to need to provide some evidence for that kind of statement.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by hyperdunc on Thursday February 23, 2017 @09:45AM (#13714206)
That's very short sighted. He's exactly the kind of person we need influencing Trump.
Re:Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estim... by dingo_bat on Wednesday February 22, 2017 @09:57PM (#13711265)
Do you want him to sacrifice his business to short term politics?