Auto production lines usually produce about a car a minute. 500,000 cars a year is about two production lines running two shifts. In 2005, the NUMMI plant, which is where Tesla is now, produced 400,000 cars with 4,700 employees. Tesla is talking about reaching 9,300 employees. They do more than final assembly there, but still, that's a high headcount for an auto plant. Ford's Kentucky truck plant also produces about 400,000 units a year with about 4,500 employees.

[1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20160504/OEM02/160509943/2-t...

It's an interesting read, and goes into more details about the "machine that builds the machine" concept that Musk has talked about recently. It gave me more confidence that Tesla might achieve a real leap forward in terms of productivity.

Density of automation equipment is all well and good, but it comes at a price of being difficult to maintain. If a tool or a robot breaks in some way (and any FMEA will tell you about the myriad of ways that can happen) then people will need to get into the cell and fix it. If you need to remove a robot, gripper or fixture - well, that's going to be difficult if you've landlocked everything by packing the machinery in so densely.

Vision systems for handling are great idea, but they are a nightmare to set up and to keep clean, especially in a welding shop.

Robots that repair the looms of robots around them. Fantasy, and it will continue to be fantasy for a good while yet.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/tesla-emp...

Musk may have been inspired by this plant. http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-like-ford-plant...

[1] http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/tesla-info.j...

Which is why they tend to move to larger modular components. Things like seats arrive preassembled and simply need to be inspected and installed. Inspection can happen off the assembly floor and managed without disrupting production.

> You have to trust that the 3rd party supplier is meeting the required spec in manufacture and that the parts are damaged in transit.

You don't have to rely on 3rd parties to run an assembly plant. Your assembly plant can be fed by your own manufacturing facilities. But if you do rely on 3rd parties, it's definitely possible and companies like Apple do it with great success.

The quality of passenger cars is so, so much higher now than prior to the use of these methods. It seems like they've got the quality control processes taken care of to some extent.

(I have no idea how many employee reservations there are.)

I feel like we live on different planets. I'm a software engineer making six figures and I can't imagine spending roughly $30-35k on a car when I can buy a decent used car for $7k, and spend less than $1k per year on maintenance.

Sure I can afford a $35k car, but if I choose to put that in my 401(k) instead it could mean retiring 3-5 YEARS earlier.

My car was $20k brand new with several options tacked on. Most people I know have used cars... getting a new car of any kind is a big deal IMO for most Americans.

Given that, I would say that calling it a "cheap" car is pretty accurate for most Americans. Obviously it is not in the range of used cars or the ultracheaps ($10-15K), but it's really amazingly cheap for an electric if they can make it happen.

[1] Note this is likely to be halved or a quartered for new orders as Telsa reaches the 200,000 vehicle mark [2] https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/honda/civic-sedan-pricing... [3] Rough estimate based on $150/mo in gas -> $50/mo in electricity

# https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pu...

If you are driving a half million to million miles in 20 years, an electric will probably really make sense. You MIGHT need to replace the battery. With a ICE car, you will need $5K of oil changes, $3K of timing belts, and around $20K more in gasoline than electricity, probably a new engine and transmission or two... There's probably another $5K worth of service in there (plugs, fuel injectors, transmission, belts).

So with a gas car you KNOW you're going to be in to it for basically as much as the purchase price of a Model 3 just in maintenance (again, if you are talking half a million miles).

https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-da...

Will a 3rd-party battery replacement industry evolve, or will we always be stuck buying from the manufacturer?

While they will avoid much of the touch/feel issues with regards to buttons the real test is where the good plastics start and end.

With regards to production targets, not only do they have to get their plant to that level their suppliers have to be able to hit those numbers as well.

I might just put my next car purchase off now. I would like to see how Tesla is doing with this car on September 20th

One thing to factor in though is the rate of deterioration of the battery pack over a 20 year period and other issues unique to electrics vs the maintenance requirements unique to an ICE vehicle.

It would be really interesting to see the breakdowns on those numbers.

Are you saying they're kept that long by the original owner? Do you have a source for that figure?

Not sure why you'd assume that.

Current Tesla models have excellent residual values: 62% at 3 years according to black book, which is excellent for the luxury segment - and even better when you consider that EV values tend to be skewed by tax credits!

The Model 3 will share features like over-the-air updates that should help it retain value well.

https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/tesla-model-s-value-retention...

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-retains-high-resale-value/

Please use medians.

So, I agree it will probably take a while for most people to be able to buy a (used) Tesla.

[1] http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/02/18/record-u...

I wish Musk hasn't said that he's not going to make a car that's cheaper than $35,000. I know he wants to add Level 5 Autopilot and whatnot by default on these cars, but he really needs to get to the $20,000 range at least. That's where the real mainstream is, and not just in the U.S. either. EVs will go mainstream when they cost $10,000-$20,000.

It may take another decade to get there, but if Musk doesn't build such a car others will. It's just that I would've preferred a Tesla car to put pressure on the quality of the competitors as well.

[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-21/goodbye-middle-clas...

90% of the people living in the EU earn less than $30,000 per year. The EU's median household income is comparable to the US poverty line for median household income. The EU's GDP per capita is 60% lower than the US; they have 750 million people, with a total GDP 10% lower than the US.

Or take Sweden for comparison, it's below all but 12 US states when it comes to median individual income. The median US income is about 45% higher than the UK median. The number of countries on earth with a higher median income than the US, you can list on one hand.

These numbers are even more dramatically out of line, if you're talking about white households (which supposedly form the core of the populist anger). The median white household earns $75,000 and has a median net worth of $145,000 - an income number drastically higher than Sweden, Finland, UK, Germany, France, etc.

So remind me again how income numbers in the US are driving the populist anger.

"I'm super excited about being able to produce a car that most people can afford," Musk said. "And there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road."

"With something like the Model 3, it's designed such that roughly half the people can afford the car," he continued. "With fourth generation and smaller cars and what not, we'll ultimately be in the position where almost everyone will be able to afford the car."

From here: http://www.computerworld.com/article/3062365/car-tech/elon-m...

When did he state that? I'd only read the general plan of 'make an expensive high-end car, use profits to make a less expensive mid-range car, use profits from that to make an affordable car'.

Or did he mean that they don't need to make a cheaper car for widespread adoption since owners can rent the car out as a self-driving taxi to recoup ownership costs?

Despite all this I've always imagined it to be a great place to work because of the world-changing potential of the work.

But the idea of all these people toiling away on an amazing product they can't even hope to own just seems incredibly depressing. I guess it's no different to all the people making iPhones in China, it just hits closer to home.

Meanwhile, Tesla is not making a profit and one wrong move could destroy it - ending the jobs of thousands and an environmental movement in one fell swoop. Giving luxurious benefits to Tesla employees just isn't possible at this point.

Your criticism that Musk is just a capitalist who doesn't care about his workers and treat them well seems completely unfair.

Let's say your total tax liability for a year is $10,000. You paid in $11,000 via Payroll and other taxes. Without the credit you'd be due a refund of $1,000. If you are eligible for a $7,500 credit because you bought a Tesla you'd be due a $8,500 refund.

Let's say your tax liability for the year is $5,000. You've paid nothing in taxes for the year (probably because you knew you were buying the car and didn't need to). You bought a Tesla which makes you eligible for a $7,500 tax credit. You do not get anything refund from the IRS, but the $7,500 tax credit offsets your entire tax liability.

So just because it's a credit doesn't mean the credit is effective for low income people. You have to have enough income to have a high enough tax liability to even get the full $7,500.

Just saying, at the announced pace, after 2 weeks they've provided cars to every Tesla employee, their partners and children. That's a short test cycle indeed ;)

From a computing viewpoint, scaling a car production line is not a theoretically hard problem (it's very parallellizable, but you have to take supply chains into account).