The current Tesla packs seem to hold up pretty good. Users who are tracking the degradation are thinking a million miles is possible. Tesla has a test pack that has simulated half a million miles with <20% capacity loss. Warranty is 8 years unlimited miles.

If you are driving a half million to million miles in 20 years, an electric will probably really make sense. You MIGHT need to replace the battery. With a ICE car, you will need $5K of oil changes, $3K of timing belts, and around $20K more in gasoline than electricity, probably a new engine and transmission or two... There's probably another $5K worth of service in there (plugs, fuel injectors, transmission, belts).

So with a gas car you KNOW you're going to be in to it for basically as much as the purchase price of a Model 3 just in maintenance (again, if you are talking half a million miles).

https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-da...

I thought everyone (well, most people) in the U.S. upgraded their car every 5-10 years?

The average age of a car on the road in the us is somewhere just over 10 years old. The averae person may be switching, but a bunch are switching into a new to them used car

I agree. But how much cheaper will a replacement battery (or repack) be after 10-15 years?

Will a 3rd-party battery replacement industry evolve, or will we always be stuck buying from the manufacturer?