My theory is if you have real tradeable info/models that is worth more than ads on a blog you keep your mouth shut until the trade is done.

The invisible hand supports Trump

Or a Trump victory was already priced into the market -- it doesn't necessarily mean people weren't bearish on Trump.

It is so so so much more nuanced than that.

In one way, the more people that bought put protection on their stock portfolio created the bullish pressure that took weeks to unwind.

(When you buy puts, the market maker is going long the stock as their own hedge. most akin to a bookie)

If you buy puts, MM sold puts and will sell shares against since he is holding a deltaLong position from selling his puts (he makes money if the underlying goes up and lose money if the underlying goes down (which is why you bought the put). To hedge that risk he would sell shares against the sold put so that the risk of the underlying move would be covered.

you're right, but yes the concept I'm referring to was staying delta neutral. When people close their put options before expiration, the MM's create buying pressure.

I would differ with your use of the word "guess".

The underlying dynamics of the market have supported the people who have been long on it.

Irrational market.

Without trying to be snarky, this sounds like a post-hoc rationalization. How do you differentiate between an irrational market and a bad prediction? I'm honestly at a loss

I don't have an answer to that but I bet no one does regardless of whether you are an expert, trader, president or man on the street.

the prediction is still bad. if the prediction can't predict that the market is irrational.

nonsense. The people making the predictions were just wrong.