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Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by scarmig on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @03:39PM (#13223690)
I genuinely do not get Uber's strategy here. Even once self-driving cars are mature, they'll occasionally screw up and sometimes kill someone. And Uber's cars are so incredibly far from mature that operating without legal cover is... just insane. If they kill and hit someone, Kalanick is easily portrayed as a ready-made movie villain. Wantonly ignoring state and local laws in the hopes of getting ahead of the pack, sacrificing the life of cute little toddler Adam to the altar of Mammon?

And it's really not just portrayed: Uber'll deserve any and all punishment thrown at them for this, up to and possibly including the shut down of the company and criminal charges for the people who did this. And Uber'll be setting the cause of self-driving cars back years, maybe even a decade.

This is all incredibly obvious too, and I don't think Uber folks are idiots. Maybe they're getting desperate, and they're willing to eat the risk of the company being destroyed because their business strategy for survival is sensitive to getting to production-ready self-driving cars a year earlier than they would have otherwise?

Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by Fricken on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @04:20PM (#13224130)
Uber's is laying the groundwork to make the legal case that Tesla owners using autopilot are in fact 'testers', presumably in hopes of tangling Tesla up.

'Levandowski compared Uber’s technology to Tesla’s autopilot feature, saying: “It’s hard to understand why the DMV would seek to require self-driving Ubers to get permits when it accepts that Tesla’s autopilot technology does not need them."

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/16/uber-defi...

Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by scarmig on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @04:36PM (#13224272)
That's interesting, if it's actually the case. It seems a bit of a stretch to me--Uber is still opening itself up to existential risk--but if by doing so it can plausibly kneecap Tesla and if it views Tesla similarly as an existential risk, this move might make sense.

ETA: That is, from a business perspective. The fact that you might kill a couple people in the meantime is kind of a deal breaker from a moral point of view.

Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by robrenaud on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @05:28PM (#13224823)
How many people does delaying the progress of self driving cars kill?
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by scarmig on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @05:53PM (#13225076)
Interesting point. Let's guesstimate it. I'll focus on the USA.

Let's assume that after the full transition, 0 people will die from automotive accidents. This isn't the case, but it's close enough. Naively, that would save roughly around 30k lives a year: in other words, every single day self-driving cars are delayed kills a bit under 100 people. The dynamics of the transition don't matter too much, assuming everything is simply shifted forward a year: you just move one year from the totally untransitioned state to the totally transitioned state.

That's huge. Anyone who does something that delays the transition one day is basically pretty much committing the Pulse night club shooting and the Sandy Hook shooting.

Now, another question: if a self-driving Uber slams into a group of children crossing the street, how much do you anticipate that to delay the transition to self-driving cars?

There's also a hidden assumption that getting inferior products on the road as quickly as possible is a necessary step in order to start iterating as quickly as possible. A day of clean room testing is worth some small fraction of a day of real world testing. I don't quite dispute that point, but just stating it explicitly.

Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by Dylan16807 on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @07:51PM (#13225857)
Safety standards that delay the transition by a week might also save one person per day from being hit by a beta car during the transition period. You can't just tally deaths on one side and ignore the other.
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by TeMPOraL on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @05:32PM (#13224868)
> That is, from a business perspective. The fact that you might kill a couple people in the meantime is kind of a deal breaker from a moral point of view.

Since when does Uber care? They never refilled their morality tank since the first time it was reported running empty.

Ironically, if the Tesla scenario is true, this pretty much looks like Good vs Evil battle, SV edition.

Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by Fricken on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @04:44PM (#13224355)
I could be wrong, but I haven't heard a better theory. I doubt they're just being cowboys, Uber's lawyers and stratgists are demonstrably skilled in the dark arts, I suspect they've calculated their outs.
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by poggi on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @04:53PM (#13224451)
Except Tesla has a permit to operate autonomous vehicles in California and Uber does not. What am I missing here? How does Uber not complying with a state law tangle up Tesla?
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by Fricken on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @05:03PM (#13224552)
Tesla has a permit, but private Tesla owners don't. Uber may be able put a judge in a position where he/she either has to require Tesla owners all get testing permits to use autopilot, or let Uber operate more or less unchecked. A win/win for Uber.
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by poggi on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @05:35PM (#13224894)
Ah I see, that makes sense.
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by LordHumungous on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @05:04PM (#13224568)
>I genuinely do not get Uber's strategy here

Simple: distract investors long enough to somehow make ride sharing profitable.

Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by derwiki on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @05:43PM (#13224966)
Is this even possible with human drivers? I thought every ride was subsidized by Uber because at "market rate" the service is too expensive.
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by LordHumungous on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @06:26PM (#13225353)
Short answer, no
Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by justicezyx on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @04:13PM (#13224066)
Totally agree.

I also think Uber's move is advancing its own lead at the risk of slowing down the overall self-driving car transition. Their move, as you described, when go wrong, not only damage the company, but also general public's acceptance of self-driving technology. That damage could be more profound and harmful in the long run.

Re:Uber sets self-driving battle at permission, not existence by wheelerwj on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @03:55PM (#13223852)
This has nothing to do with self driving cars. What is likely gking go happen in the future though is fines will be substantially higher.