> [Electric car] that is much safer
It's way too early to tell, we need a decade more of statistics before you can say that. As of now, there are many gasoline cars that have better safety records than the Model S; in terms of fatalities per mile it is only on par with the NHTSA average.
> [Electric cars] that unlike gasoline cars is upgraded for free on a regular basis after you purchased it
Gasoline cars have similarly complex ECUs and entertainment systems and are already being updated for free (usually at regular services).
> [Electric car] has much more luggage space
The Model X "SUV" proves that electric cars with decent range are so far restricted to the "liftback" body shape. Let me know when there is an electric equivalent of a Chevy Suburban or Volvo V70 (which really have much more luggage space).
> unlike gasoline cars, [electric cars] can be upgraded modularly for small investments
You've seriously never heard of the $300 billion-a-year market for aftermarket car parts? Never heard of the SEMA show? Gasoline cars are much better suited for modular upgrades: everything from better air filters to chiptuning to a bigger turbo is easily available and can be done by anyone with freely available tools in their garage. Unlike electric cars, which are inherently much less hackable.
> They haven't integrated solar in the cars yet to further kill any range anxiety.
You clearly haven't done the basic math here: a solar panel the size of a car roof will take several weeks to charge an electric car.
> Any day Tesla can license their battery technology and superchargers
Tesla does not own the IP for the battery tech nor the superchargers
Tesla Model S Achieves Best Safety Rating of Any Car Ever Tested http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-tesla-model-s-achieves-...
> Upgrades
Due to dealerships, most cars can _only_ have their software upgrades during services. Tesla can push it out over the air. I'm not aware of anyone else doing that, and they probably can't due to dealership rules.
> Luggage space
But there's the frunk. Because the motor is the size of a watermelon instead of 1/4 of the car. The Model S has nearly twice as much cargo space as, say, the Audi A6. http://cars.axlegeeks.com/compare/1525-4509/2013-Tesla-Model...
> Solar
Yep we can agree on this one, solar wont help on cars.
> Licencing > Tesla does not own the IP for the battery tech nor the superchargers
Do you have a source for that? Tesla batteries are damn complicated, its not just a load of laptop batteries glued together, there are very complex support systems around the battery cells. Are you telling me they dont own the IP for that?
Of course it could be that reckless drivers purchase Teslas, confounding the statistics. But given the safety ratings only account for how likely a passenger (or pedestrian) is to die/be injured in certain kinds of impact, it is a very incomplete picture.
Even if the metric is perfect at measuring this, the average result for fatalities per mile would seem to then suggest an increased number of high-risk collisions per mile.
As for luggage space: I was talking about an estate/wagon class car, so this is the correct comparison:
http://cars.axlegeeks.com/compare/1525-17575/2013-Tesla-Mode...
Also, just counting cubic feet with two luggage compartments is only helpful in some situations. You wouldn't be able to fit a washing machine in a Model S, for instance, or a dog cage, nor most baby prams (without significant disassembly).
Tesla does own some patents on the battery pack assembly, but Musk famously declared a while back that these are free for all other car companies to use in good faith. (He "open sourced" them.) Also, Tesla is the only electric car manufacturer going for the 18650 cell as the basis, all others are going for much larger individual cells in their packs, so most of Tesla's battery pack IP doesn't apply to others since it's specific to the cell form factor.
You don't understand. Most car manufacturers have agreements with dealerships that will prevent OTA updates from being possible.
> Musk famously declared a while back that these are free for all other car companies to use in good faith
Yep, but 'good faith' means opening up their IP in return, more or less, so not many companies are taking that up. Anyhow Tesla still own the IP, so your original statement is incorrect.
There are also legal frameworks that make OTA updates edgy. Tesla is being investigated in germany because pushing additional features ("auto"pilot) might substantially alter the car from the approved version, leaving it without approval to drive on german roads.
OTA also suffers from all the beautiful issues that networked updates suffer from, most notably security, authentication, encryption. I for one prefer updates done via good old fashioned removable media.
So yes, OTA updates are nice, but I'm not certain I really really want that in my car.
Maybe it's just me, but I find that terrifying.
I don't want there to be any possibility of my car changing its behavior unless I take the deliberate action of bringing it into a dealership for that purpose. It's one thing if an update bricks my laptop, it's quite another if it bricks my car. Let alone if one day a malicious update somehow gets pushed out.
I see four categories of people here:
1) People who really don't want to think about it, and fully trust Tesla to take care of them. This is the vast majority of people.
2) People who understand security, and want security patches applied as quickly as possible by a professional. This group also likes OTA updates, but is admittedly quite small.
3) People who want to minimize their security surface area entirely. These people wouldn't buy a Tesla, nor would they allow their dealer to plug into their car. They buy a car that's carefully vetted to have a small attack surface, and do the maintenance themselves (or by a trusted contractor). This is, like, the Secret Service, etc. This is a tiny group.
4) People who need some degree of "control theater" so that they can maintain the sensation they are in control of the status of their vehicle, but who aren't actually applying any sort of rigorous security protocol (as evidenced by leaving their car unattended at a random dealership). It's is a bigger group than #2 or #3, but much smaller than #1.
Hopefully it's more than the sensation. Anyone who's ever had a Windows update take over right before a presentation, or an Apple update brick their phone, wishes they had more control over when and if to accept an update.
Being able to upgrade/downgrade helps a lot. "Bluetooth for my headphones broke, after I upgraded. I'll downgrade, until they've fixed that bug."
So what is this?
One's a European institution; the other is American.
I believe Tesla's idea behind solar panels is to extend the range a bit (5 percent or so) in order to alleviate the range anxiety drivers have, not to charge the batteries fully. At least not before the batteries and panels get much more efficient.
As for IP, Tesla doesn't need to own all IP from lithium ion batteries to chargers. Just to have the necessary licenses for whichever part of the the base IP which is not already in free use and to have licenses or patents to the way they have put it all together (the way they combine the batteries, their charger etc.). Take Volvo: For them, building a network of chargers covering their markets would mean an investment of billions of euros that they don't have. Buy batteries from Tesla instead, and they can pay as they go.
Changing modules in an electric will eventually be like changing RAM or a fan in a computer. Something most people can't do themselves but that an expert can do in half an hour. Electric cars can be built like PCs where one module can replace another. Gasoline cars are not as modular. Also, the 300 billion dollar market for gasoline car parts is mainly because there are many and many old gasoline cars and because their moving parts need to be repaired and replaced often, not because they are upgraded. You rarely upgrade a gasoline car - you mainly fix broken stuff. I never heard of anyone handing in their gasoline car and picking it up a few days later with faster acceleration and longer range, just like Tesla now offers with their new battery.
Ever seen "The Fast and the Furious"? I am pretty sure people upgrade their gasoline cars all the time. People already replace modular parts on their cars similar to computers. OEM upgrades that increase acceleration, etc may not be common, but aftermarket upgrades that increase acceleration or horsepower are extremely common.
I'd bet there are many more options for upgrading an old 90s model Toyota Supra or Mitsubishi Eclipse than there are for a brand new Tesla Model S.
It's really pretty standard. I have several friends who "chip-tuned" their diesel engines for significant HP boost, people regularly change suspension parts, exhausts, they add intercoolers to the engines, order a turbo etc. Those are pretty standard things and there are many specialized shops when you can drop your car for a few days to get those done.
You shouldn't trust your opinions on the topic if you haven't heard about it because those are really common things among car enthusiasts.
As an example, I live in Graz, Austria, where there is just one supercharger. It's not massively convenient for where I live in the city, but it's a small city, so it's possibly reasonable. However, last week I drove to Budapest and back, via Slovenia, which is motorway/freeway/autobahn the entire route. Total journey distance is approximately 800kms.
There are no superchargers in Budapest. I could have returned via Vienna, adding another 50kms to the journey, but there is only one, inconveniently located, inner city supercharger in Vienna. I would lose a substantial amount of time leaving the motorway and ring road, to navigate to this sole supercharger.
Instead, I drive my Hyundai diesel and top up at any one of the multiple service stations enroute.
Superchargers need to be a lot more ubiquitous and located much closer to major arteries before this becomes a compelling proposition.
So, I don't think the supercharger network needs to be "slightly more expanded" in Eastern Europe, but greatly expanded and much more convenient.
Plugshare.com exposes just how many access points are available for recharging on trip - public/govt options, for-pay high-power stations, etc...
Using the trip planner shows dozens of charging options between Graz and Budapest, for your particular case.
It's certainly helped me address some range anxiety as I consider an EV.
It requires extra planning, yes, but I was actually surprised how it wasn’t constraining. YMMW obviously.
BTW, that 600km range is very theoretical. The real range of 85D is ~420km (driving at 110km/h) and while P100D has better range, it doesn’t have 50% better range.
This sort of limitation applies to pretty much anyone who doesn't live in a house with a driveway or garage. Many people park their cars on the street, and would have the same problem I do.
We must have very different definitions of "covered". Looking at the supercharger map on Tesla's website, I'm not sure that even the SoCal area is close to fitting that definition. Most east coast state have only 5-10 stations for the entire state. Unless Tesla is planning to increase the rate of supercharger installations at an exponential rate, it will probably be another decade before the US will be covered to the point that you could reasonably expect to take off on a long distance trip without needing to plan around charger availability.
- with cheaper fuel
(numbers and previous discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12379662)
It is possible that other branches of the business could subsidize car sales indefinitely, but highly unlikely.
1) Range
2) Price
3) Habits
With the new upgrade, the largest model S can drive 613 km on a charge. And this year or next year Tesla covers basically all of North America and Europe with their chargers.
Already now, the range covers what people need 99 percent of the time. I drive more than 600 km once every 2-3 years. So for me a Tesla would already cover 99.9 percent of my use cases. Some people take long hauls more often, but most of them pass superchargers on the way. Once the batteries exceed 7-800 km and the supercharger network is slightly more expanded in the American Midwest, Southern and Eastern Europe, Tesla will cover 99.9 percent for everybody. I simply cannot think of a scenario, in which an American or European in 2021 would drive 800 km and not pass several superchargers on the way, unless they drive outside of Europe and North America or go to arctic regions.
Price is another thing. Model 3 is priced like a midsize car. A lot of buyers cannot afford that even when incentives and money saved on gas is included. But from mid size class and and up, you basically get a car
- that is much safer
- that unlike gasoline cars is upgraded for free on a regular basis after you purchased it
- that unlike gasoline cars can be upgraded modularly for small investments (buying better batteries etc.)
- has much more luggage space
- that drives more smoothly (due to electrical engine)
- with better acceleration
- that to some - ever increasing - extent can drive itself
- that you can buy in the city center or a mall
- with longer range between charges/fill ups
- with cheaper fuel
for the same price as a gasoline car.
But mostly, Tesla buyers will get a car where the digital stuff is integrated in everything. Tesla learns from usage just like Amazon or Google learn from usage. And just like Amazon and Google use that to get an edge from their competitors, I have a hard time seeing how Mercedes or Audi are going to be able to compete in the mid to large size class unless they too integrate digital into everything.
Habits die hard, and for some people, gasoline cars are the only cars. But if the market for Tesla has been high income 30-60 year old first movers on the American coasts and Northern and Central Europe, it will soon be medium income people all over Europe. The demographics of potential Tesla buyers will be 100 times larger in a couple of years.
I truly hope the large car manufacturers introduce their own fully electrical vehicles in production soon, and not just a concept car here and there. Competition is best. But if they don't do it in the next 2-3 years, they are going to be gone from everything except very high end and cheap cars, and for cheap cars as well after a decade or so, when Tesla can produce $20,000 cars.
I don't think they fully understand how grave their situation is. They focus on the fact that Tesla is losing money. But Tesla basically hasn't played all their cards yet. Tesla is still 1-2 years from selling a mid size car, 5-10 years away from selling cheap cars. They haven't upgraded batteries to bury the range issue yet. They haven't integrated solar in the cars yet to further kill any range anxiety.
The autopilot is learning from around a million driven km per day at the moment and soon that will be from tens of millions of km driven.
Any day Tesla can license their battery technology and superchargers to any of the large car companies. And if bankruptcy threatens, they can sell to Apple, Google or another tech company.
Heck, I bet I am just one of hundreds of thousands of people who would gladly pay $5-10,000 for their shares in a future round just to save them, even if I thought there was a good chance I would lose it all.
The traditional car companies should be much more worried. We are in a situation like when Apple introduced the iPhone and changed the cell phone industry.