Isn't this a red hot signal that it's a great idea? If everyone is saying no and you see the world differently, you have open space to play.

Basically Peter Thiel's contrarian perspective.

"Is selling refrigerators to Eskimos a good idea?"

You're begging the question. It's only a signal that it's a great idea if everyone says no given that it is a great idea.

Usually, if all your feedback is negative, it's a red hot signal that you should be doing something else.

It's an interesting example you use because I think it still serves the previous point. Peter Drucker wrote, “To sell the Eskimos a refrigerator to keep food cold, is finding a new market; to sell a refrigerator to keep food from getting too cold is actually creating a new product”. (The Practice of Management) This was apparently inspired by a true tale of a Westinghouse salesman who sold deep freezes and fridges to arctic-dwellers. Meat left outside was rock hard and took too long to thaw, and you can't quickly drink frozen water/juice/beer.

My point is, lazy conventional group wisdom is often wrong because it's invested in "the way things are." Mature industries are most vulnerable in my experience (personally, I have experience in the large and old-thinking parking and payment industries). Acceptance of "because that's not how things are done" blinds people to opportunities. The lazy majority are too quick to repeat that dismissal. This adds "weight" to a rejection, but little critical analysis. I have found it productive and profitable to often disagree and swim upstream. I recognize not all industries or product spaces are like this.

At most, people's opinion is uncorrelated with the result. To say that people's opinion is strongly inversely correlated means that people saying "oh my god take my money right now" means you should never follow that idea.

Simply put, you can't have it both ways. You can't both have people saying "no" and people saying "yes" mean that it's a good idea.

> Isn't this a red hot signal that it's a great idea?

Unfortunately both the great ideas and the awful ideas look awful.

Not necessarily. You might be the only person that sees (or can be convinced to see) the world that way.

Benchmark Capital had the policy that if every partner said "yes" to a deal, they did not fund it - if everyone thinks it's a great idea, there's not enough risk or upside.

I dont doubt you, but source?

Damn, I can't find the thread. His handle is MarcusPOF but the thread was started on another account (obviously). The forum was wickedfire. There are other regulars lurking on HN. Somebody else might chime in.

The forum is dead now and has been for many years. But it had its day. The guy who made and sold Indeed was a regular too as well as other pretty successful people, but it had a ... let's call it a certain vibe.

Still some gems lingering around: https://www.google.com/search?aqs=chrome..69i57.1782j0j7&sou...

From what I briefly gathered, WickedFire is similar to today's WarriorForum.

Today's wickedfire is similar to WarriorForum. Used to be a lot different though.

I was a regular there. IIRC he didn't ask "is starting a dating site a good idea." He already had the dating site. But he launched its ad network on WF. [0] (That's MarcusPOF... pretty sure BenPOF is the founder)

Fun fact: Wickedfire was also around for the launch of "2girls1cup" (if you aren't familiar with this, do not google it) [1] and Riff Raff (now a top-100 artist, somehow... wtf) [2]

[0] http://www.wickedfire.com/affiliate-marketing/74544-plentyof...

[1] http://www.wickedfire.com/misc-products-software-services/16...

[2] http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-the-shit/163812-my-first-...

No, Ben is an employee. Marcus Frind is the founder of POF and he did make a thread before he was MarkusPOF. It was very early on, not 2009. A couple of years before that perhaps. God it has been so long since then!

The thread wasn't full of people mocking him (wf wasn't like that back then) but people were telling him it's generally not a good idea and he should go niche instead. I've completely lost touch with all of my contacts from back then and I can't find the thread unfortunately, so you have to take it on my word, I guess.

The forum is definitely dead these days, but the marketplace is still "somewhat" active, and there are a few skype groups with active daily participation. It seems like no forum has really risen to take its place. More like the SEO guys went one way (BHW, Skype groups), the PPC guys another (private forums, other skype groups).

A lot of the big players are still active and still making money. If you want an invite to a Skype group shoot me an email.

lol, that's amazing if true.