Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles.
That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical Model S is projected to retain about 92 percent of its battery capacity and range.
So what "fact" you are relying on stating the battery will have to be replaced between 3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. Other, simpler EVs, lacking the rather sophisticated battery management system of the Model S might degrade quicker - especially in warmer climates, but nowhere near as fast as you state.
Other than that, you're right in that most EVs are almost as complex as a modern ICE. They need to be checked regularly and will need repairs.
Also, batteries lose capacity with time as well as use.
You should probably link to the study.
>3 and 6 years is probably not very factual.
3 years might be early, but I have a hard time believing that Tesla has hit on some magic as far as batteries are concerned. The drain on anything I have at home is far more than what you state; my phone battery certainly isn't much good after 6 years.. But I have no idea. I guess we'll see as the current Teslas age.
What kills lithium batteries is time, cycle count, heat, and extreme states of charge. A Tesla battery has a massive advantage on three out of those four compared to consumer electronics, which is why comparing to your phone or laptop isn't very informative.
https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-bat... [A blogpost about the study]
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKP... [The study/survey]
http://www.daglievemensen.nl/tesla/maxrange.htm [Interactive graph]
And as bonus a link to the Tesla Roadster battery study: http://www.groen7.nl/images/wp2013/divers/PIA-Roadster-Batte...
My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new.
Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.
https://www.teslamotors.com/support/service-plans
You will change your battery oil.
Or your transmission fluid, or your spark plugs, or your muffler / exhaust pipe, or your catalytic converters, or your oxygen sensors, or about 100 other parts unique to ICE engines.. Many of which I've recently repaired on my 160k-mile car.
... and I read once that Elon Musk talked about it, though I can't find a link.
It seems like the battery management of Tesla is pretty good. I'd imagine 10-year to 15-year replacement of battery packs... which is still far more expensive and costly than a transmission rework (ie: a 150k to 200k Camry).
It probably doesn't. Already today operators of taxi and bus fleets are doing the sums on full electric vehicles and deciding to spend more up front to save over the long term. Generally lower fuel and maintenance costs are cited as why they can afford to spend more on the vehicle. Possibly these multi-million dollar deals are signed without sufficient due-diligince by people who run vehicle fleets as a full-time job, but it seem more likely they know what they're doing.
In fact, this article is so preconcieved reading it's last sentence felt like: 'scrolling, scrolling to continue reading after the ads... aaaand... where is the reasoning-part and the criterion-part of this piece?'
Considering the article's lack of substance and the subsequent unquestioning cheering here on HN, this article delivers less enlightenment on the future of EV than it is a statement about the bias on HN towards EV. And probably about the bias in the valley as well.
EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built.
In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than internal combustion vehicles. That further means lower construction cost for the most complex and costly part of a vehicle, and far lower maintenance cost.
While it is true, the engine and drive train has fewer parts, when I reduce it to motor and battery. But in fact every EV has a gear, including the Tesla. Yes, this gear is much simpler, but it is there and even runs with oil that has to be replaced every 100.000 miles like in every other car. The battery is as complex as an engine itself. Because you need to measure lots of sensors values and to control that it will not explode and not wear down to fast. Every battery, including the one in the Tesla, has a dedicated heating and cooling system just for the battery within the battery.
Then also lots of parts in car are the very same like brakes, steering, air condition, windows, and so. Remember that a current car is about 30% software and will be more in future. But there is only 1 engine control unit. The most of the parts are other things to control safety or personal comfort.
Electric vehicles, today, have lower total costs per mile than equivalent gasoline-powered vehicles, due to lower energy costs of electricity and the lower maintenance costs.
That neglects the fact, that most of the maintenance costs are not engine related. Like the brakes have to be regularly checked. It neglects the fact, that a battery will wear out sometimes between 3 to 6 years and has to be replaced, which is a huge cost related issue. The guarantee Tesla has, does not help, because you will pay for that guarantee otherwise.