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Re:How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? by perbu on Thursday April 28, 2016 @05:59AM (#11587585)
I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following:

Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles.

That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical Model S is projected to retain about 92 percent of its battery capacity and range.

So what "fact" you are relying on stating the battery will have to be replaced between 3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. Other, simpler EVs, lacking the rather sophisticated battery management system of the Model S might degrade quicker - especially in warmer climates, but nowhere near as fast as you state.

Other than that, you're right in that most EVs are almost as complex as a modern ICE. They need to be checked regularly and will need repairs.

Re:How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? by tamana on Thursday April 28, 2016 @10:08AM (#11588949)
These numbers are almost certainly because the Tesla battery is overprovisioned and actually has something like 108% of a reported fully battery when new.

Also, batteries lose capacity with time as well as use.

Re:How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? by danmaz74 on Thursday April 28, 2016 @07:37AM (#11588000)
Very interesting data, I too thought that the battery would degrade much faster.
Re:How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? by forgetsusername on Thursday April 28, 2016 @07:29AM (#11587957)
>There is a Dutch study which concludes the following

You should probably link to the study.

>3 and 6 years is probably not very factual.

3 years might be early, but I have a hard time believing that Tesla has hit on some magic as far as batteries are concerned. The drain on anything I have at home is far more than what you state; my phone battery certainly isn't much good after 6 years.. But I have no idea. I guess we'll see as the current Teslas age.

Re:How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? by mikeash on Thursday April 28, 2016 @09:37AM (#11588684)
It's a completely different scenario from your phone battery. Your phone battery gets charged to 100% every day (if you're like most people), gets discharged deeply on a regular basis, and has no thermal management. Tesla batteries are typically charged to 90% or less, with the 100% charge level being reserved for long trips, they're typically not using a particularly large fraction of the battery (most people don't drive 200+ miles every day), and there's a sophisticated thermal management system that keeps the batteries at the optimal temperature.

What kills lithium batteries is time, cycle count, heat, and extreme states of charge. A Tesla battery has a massive advantage on three out of those four compared to consumer electronics, which is why comparing to your phone or laptop isn't very informative.

Re:How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? by impy on Thursday April 28, 2016 @08:42AM (#11588354)
Took me a little bit of searching to actually find the source, and to call it a study is a bit an overstatement, however here are some links:

https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-bat... [A blogpost about the study]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKP... [The study/survey]

http://www.daglievemensen.nl/tesla/maxrange.htm [Interactive graph]

And as bonus a link to the Tesla Roadster battery study: http://www.groen7.nl/images/wp2013/divers/PIA-Roadster-Batte...

Re:How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? by pessimizer on Thursday April 28, 2016 @08:53AM (#11588405)