> if even a handful of the people who now use Git had learned both Git and Mercurial and made an informed choice between them. That simply does not appear to be the case. Git got ahead because Linus invented it, and won because of GitHub.

I think you also underestimate the developer community (or may I overestimate them.) Regardless, my anecdotal evidence is that I did try HG and Git, and while I preferred HG when I first started evaluating them, as soon as I found out how to use Git branches, it was all over for HG. At work we currently inherited a project in HG and everyone that has to work on it complains about it. Some know Git, some are .Net or even old school CVS/SVN people (our VCS migration took a bit longer than it should have), but it doesn't matter. HG = hard to use for them, whereas Git make sense after getting over the initial hurdles. I see the same kind of path I took, where at first they are like, oh, Hg isn't bad, and then after using both, choosing Git as their preference.