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Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by Animats on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @01:48AM (#9136425)
It's not that building a new city is hard. Real estate developers do it routinely. The problem is jobs. There are, at present, quite a few places in the US with more houses than jobs. Only in a few places, such as SF and some areas of Oklahoma where there's heavy drilling activity, is the reverse the case.

If you want to buy an empty town of new houses, there are plenty in San Bernardino. Vacant lots run about $7500. San Bernardino even has a new airport, fully completed and ready to go. But no airlines fly there. Because there are no jobs.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by pantalaimon on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @06:51AM (#9137204)
Hah, there are more houses than jobs in Berlin, but that doesn't stop people from coming.

There is more than work and housing to make a vibrant city.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by powertower on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @04:22PM (#9140852)
You are comparing a small theoretical start-up town in the middle of nowhere and with a non-existing economy and job-market - to an already established city that is the business center and capital of a country (a country that itself is the business center of the EU).

That seems like an exception being used to disprove someone else's rule.

Unless they already have the money to exist and live there, no one is going to move to a place they can't afford.

So the question is again - why would they move there, except this time you are asking only people that are not part of the typical job market / economy (because the number of available gainful jobs there is too low; and at the same time no one is looking to start businesses there).

It seems like these types of places are for only the upper class, especially considering that low scale gives high prices.

Or goes the other way, and makes lots and lots of suicide inducing standard units, small in size, with uniform paint jobs, and all placed together. A place where the government pays your rent.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by aetherson on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @08:43AM (#9137561)
Well, perhaps. But it's probably pretty hard to make a lot of money as a landlord in Berlin if that is the case. Which is ultimately what this company would need to do to be successful.
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by pantalaimon on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @09:50AM (#9137870)
Quite the contrary, due to the high demand, rents are on a steady rise. [1] The government is issuing caps now on how much higher the rent can be with new contracts (there are already caps for how much rent can be increased with an existing contract, but when old tenants move out, they could ask for any price on the new contract, especially when renovating the place - which led to shady methods to get long-term tenants out)

[1] http://www.wohnungsboerse.net/mietspiegel-Berlin/2825

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by aetherson on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @10:30AM (#9138129)
Look, you can't have both an overabundance of housing supply and an overabundance of housing demand. I don't really know or care which is really the case in Berlin, and of course demand could be low but rising, but if housing is oversupplied, then landlords won't make much money. If housing is undersupplied, then Berlin wasn't a good example of what you thought it was.
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by pantalaimon on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @10:39AM (#9138189)
There is no oversupply of housing, there are just not so many jobs.
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by aetherson on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @10:47AM (#9138241)
So your claim here is that there is enough demand for housing in Berlin to produce tidy profits for landlords and a steady influx of new people for whom there are not enough jobs and so those people are unemployed?

That is:

1. Obviously not true. 2. Obviously not a good or sustainable thing if true.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by mattmanser on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @11:05AM (#9138364)
Or 3. Your argument is wrong because markets aren't efficient and jobs + housing aren't as tightly linked as you'd have us believe?
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by aetherson on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @11:12AM (#9138417)
This has nothing to do with any strong form of the efficient markets hypothesis.

If there aren't jobs for the people in Berlin, then obviously they can't pay these great housing prices that the OP claims they can. I guess barring a case where Berlin is a vacation spot for the idle rich, but I don't think that anyone is arguing that.

If there are plenty of jobs, but housing is super-abundant, then I suppose you could make some weird case for there being a non-efficient market that's propping up housing prices despite there being no reason for that. And then landlords are, heh, making a rent, not the normal one but the economic concept, and sure, Berlin is super-overpriced for what it should be. But that's obviously nonsense too, everyone knows that Berlin is affordable.

I don't care if markets are for some reason inefficient the other direction and landlords are making less than what they ought to be -- the entire point of this ridiculous digression was the OP's claim that Campus could design an attractive model city which people would flock to despite there not being any jobs, and the point is that Campus is a landlord. They will not grow and become a giant disruptive force in the world if they are not making lots of money. If they build cities in which landlords for whatever reason make less money than they "ought to," then they will not grow and will not make many cities.

EDIT: I think this was all lost in the weeds, so let me play out the whole thing. I am not denying that Berlin is a vibrant, great, wonderful city that is also affordable and is attracting people for any reason you care to name. All I'm saying is that there are two possibilities:

1. Jobs are scarce in Berlin -> people do not have a lot of money in Berlin -> landlords do not make a lot of money in Berlin -> Campus could not make a neo-Berlin and then roll the incredible profits into making neo-neo-Berlin, because Campus is a landlord.

2. Jobs are not scarce in Berlin -> Berlin is not the counter-example that the OP thought it was.

For whatever it's worth, I think that the actual situation with Berlin is that it's still affordable but getting less so, and the OP confused the graph with the graph of the first differential.

EDIT2: In the case of Berlin, you could I suppose make the case that landlords are renting properties for low absolute rents but high profit margins, and that thus a sufficiently large landlord could use high volume to produce large absolute profits. But I don't think that could be the case for a new city. Building a city is a capital-intensive process -- even if the land is inherently cheap, building the structures and the infrastructure is just expensive, full stop.

What (may have) happened in Berlin is that somebody did the expensive city-building and then took a bath on it. Present landlords who are (hypothetically) making a good profit bought the distressed assets cheaply and now are making that profit off low absolute rents because essentially they've profited from the previous landlord's failure. Again, this is not a potential route to high absolute profits for Campus' potential future cities, as Campus will be the first landlord. They will need relatively high absolute rents in order to have substantially high absolute profits.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by pantalaimon on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @12:24PM (#9138990)
I think I made too many assumption, so the point I wanted to make got lost.

Basically, Campus wants to build what normally is the end result of gentrification, I'm not critical of that at all, I just wanted to point out that there has to be more to a city than the availability of jobs - there have been previous modelled cities specifically for that purpose (e.g. Eisenhüttenstadt) which turned out rather boring.

As for Berlin, it's isolated position during the cold war/much abandoned property after reunification led to rents being quite low, which attracted creative types - who probably couldn't afford to live at Campus. The vast availability unclaimed spaces after the wall came down enabled them to try all different kind of things, there was a niche for everyone. To pull that of you need a certain density - Leipzig just barely does that, but many other East German cities are rotting away and experiencing an exodus because there is not the critical mass of people. But I also think the Hobrecht-Plan plays into it by providing dense and flexible city spaces - areas where those structures are preserved are the most popular today.

To get back to the original point, the target audience of Campus will rather move to a place they find desirable and find/create jobs there than to move to a place that has no other appeal than a job.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by subpixel on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @11:12AM (#9138413)
Berlin is still perceived to be desirable enough and affordable enough that young people move there without a job, often from another country. (Both of those assumptions are often made based on a magazine article or blog post, btw.)

This definitely warps the jobs-to-housing relationship, and is hard to account for in any predictions because it's not strictly logical.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by darkmighty on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:16AM (#9136490)
Perhaps they could sign with a company or group of companies that don't rely on physical location, e.g. software companies.

Even then, it would only have potential if it filled a bunch of other checkboxes of desirable qualities people wanting for those companies might want which are not filled by established cities, like great outdoor activities nearby, proximity to large cities, extremely low property costs ...

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by Cthulhu_ on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @03:12AM (#9136605)
But if they don't rely on physical location, why would anyone want to live there? (assuming you mean remote workers)

What I'm reading / glancing over is that they want to create campusses, modeled after some SF software company headquarters. That would only work in SF, because said software companies aren't going to move out of SF anytime soon. Even then they'd stick to bigger cities where the jobs are.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by twelvechairs on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @04:03AM (#9136762)
The only real reason is cost of living. If you build it yourself you could omit half a dozen middle men who make money from real estate as well as potentially local taxes, planning regulations you dont agree with, etc. You could then pass this on in part as higher wages.
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by netcan on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @07:21AM (#9137285)
Nonsense. The middle men are part of the economy of real estate. Building, selling, reselling, tenanting… These are all economic activities with associated costs. These costs are higher where you are working within an existing cities where there are already people, property owners, residents, communities, local governments.

So, yes building in the middle of nowhere reduces your costs. Mostly because land is cheap, but also other reasons. The thing is, those reasons are both cause an effect of the higher value of those houses. people will pay through the nose to live in a roach infested box in central London, Manhattan & San Francisco fro precisely those reasons. These places have people, jobs, vibrancy and the tangle of all these that makes it very to build on a large scale but give these places an unmistakably organic feel.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by twelvechairs on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:53PM (#9140209)
So you disagree with me where? The vibrancy of big cities is great - all im saying is that theres a segment of the population who would rather live in a less vibrant neighbourhood with a better home and more pay. Which is entirely achievable.
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by ed_blackburn on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @09:33AM (#9137783)
Then I look at the 'housing shortage' in the UK...
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by epicureanideal on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @01:59AM (#9136452)
I know a way of solving this, but "ideas are worth nothing, execution is everything". If anyone's willing to value the idea as significantly more than nothing, I'd be happy to discuss.

See my reply to commenter below. I for one don't believe ideas are worth nothing, and am willing to pay for ideas/information useful to me.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by davidw on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:13AM (#9136484)
http://journal.dedasys.com/2007/04/26/ideas-are-worthless/

Ideas may be worth something, but how would the market for them work?

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by jamessb on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @05:10AM (#9136976)
At least for companies that recognise they have a problem, and want ideas for how to solve it, such a market already exists - Innocentive https://www.innocentive.com/ar/challenge/browse

This includes various classes of challenge, including the Ideation Challenge:

"An InnoCentive Ideation™ Challenge is a broad question formulated to obtain access to new ideas, similar to a global brainstorm for producing a breakthrough idea or market survey which may include ideas for a new product line, a new commercial application for a current product, or even a viral marketing idea to recruit new customers. Ideation™ Challenge submissions are typically about two written pages, and Seekers receive a non-exclusive, perpetual license to use all submissions."

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by epicureanideal on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:31AM (#9136519)
For the record, I'm very much open to buying ideas (or other information) that help me make more money. If you're selling ideas that would help me make more money, and willing to make payment conditional upon me being able to utilize your ideas (and I'll certainly try, given that it's in my interest) post your contact info and I'll get in touch.

I realize there isn't a very efficient market for ideas, and I have difficulty understanding why. I suppose other market participants are just not like me in being interested to buy them, but I suspect a reasonable number of similar people exist. My 6-second guess about the situation is that the market for ideas is inefficient because the small percentage of people willing to buy ideas is difficult to market to and ideas are not equally useful to each person.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by kristiandupont on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @04:57AM (#9136932)
Well for one thing, the term "idea" isn't very well defined. If you are talking about something like Elon Musks Hyperloop, I can see that it might be worth money. But someone else might consider "Uber for dog walkers" an idea. And it is to some extent, but how would you know before you buy? No worries, you say, you'll just make a clause that says that you only pay for an idea if you execute it? Right, but then you are looking to buy an idea without knowing anything about it, and if you hear it but don't like it, you have now exposed yourself to the anger of the idea-guy if you ever go on to do something related.

I have once upset an acquaintance because he felt that I stole his idea. After that incident, I have actually started to ask people not to tell me their ideas unless they are cool with me possibly using them some day. Otherwise, I just risk making enemies with very little upside.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by epicureanideal on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:43PM (#9140118)
I think it's possible to sufficiently reduce this problem. For example, "needs to be an idea I can execute on with skill set X (or hire for)", "needs to be something I can execute on with $Y or includes a plan to acquire $Y that I can execute on", "needs to have a potential ROI of Z%".

Also, enough information can be given in advance that I'd be able to filter out ideas that I'm not interested in pursuing. General industry it's in, whether or not it's legal, etc.

I have plenty of information/ideas that would be valuable to software engineers, so I know that there exist scenarios in which information/ideas are valuable. I would've benefitted from the same information/ideas a few years back, and I suspect there's more ideas I don't have yet that would provide more gains. However, as I mentioned in another post, not many people willing to pay for information/ideas so I've had difficulty finding buyers.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by pforpineapple on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @05:08AM (#9136966)
What you are talking about is not an "idea", but a "plan".
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by epicureanideal on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:35PM (#9140055)
And yet a "plan" is still not execution.
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by epicureanideal on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:52AM (#9136560)
Before someone else says it: "Stop reading Hacker News and go build something. That'll be $5."
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by epicureanideal on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:17AM (#9136491)
Same as any other market. If there is a potential value of say, $5M assuming a problem can be solved, but that potential disappears without the solution, then it's worth $5M. Obviously the other side will want to keep some of that potential value otherwise they won't make the deal.

I don't understand why this is getting downvoted (not that it matters much). I'm totally serious. Ask a question if something isn't clear.

Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by s73v3r on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @01:14PM (#9139433)
If you're not going to contribute to the discussion, then don't post. Nobody is going to steal your idea.
Re:A Startup That Wants to Build Cities by epicureanideal on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @02:18AM (#9136497)
Actually nevermind, I just thought of a way to execute on this. I'll just do that.