But it was a reasonable guess given that Snowden had been in Russia for a week and Evo Morales was talking about offering him asylum.
It's harder to guess right when Snowden could (in theory) board any plane leaving Moscow on any day this year or next, or the year after that.
Tracking his day-to-day movements, even if he should arrange to get to an airport in secret? Extraordinary. Do you have a link for that?
What I meant was the has a much broader choice of flights and even airports now. The odds seem to more in his favour now, should he wish to move.
Though actually, why would he? I don't see any advantage for Snowden from relocating to the same show, but in Venezuela or Argentina.
Both tasks should be business as usual for such huge secret service.
CIA had a lot of time between them and now. It also have a lot of resources and his movements are likely to be top priority for them. Them knowing he boarded a plane is real risk for him.
I do think that would be an achievement while he's under the wing of the Russian government. But what do I know?
What's really extraordinary is that gpvos knows for sure that it's not only doable but is actually happening; and is willing to share this intel with us. Or they seem to know; no citation to support the claim has been provided yet. It could just be internet BS.
For the rest: what watwut said in a nearby comment. I'm just extrapolating from things like the Evo Morales incident.
Submarines would be too expensive. He's not worth that much to Russia, Argentina or any other country.
Granted, a boat trip is longer, which is more time for things to (be made to) go wrong, but if a ship is traveling through international waters, are there any grounds for another country to board it and seize its passengers?
(With a follow up: is there a sea route between Russia and Friendly Country X which doesn't pass through waters claimed by another country?)
Legal grounds? Does it matter?
Suddenly, pirates, out of fucking nowhere.
EDIT:
Seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if some "random" thing happened to Snowden if he tried to go by a boat. Just like Assange became an sex offender out of the blue the moment he seriously pissed off the US government.
I think the issue was, what was considered rape in Sweden was basically just being a misogynistic douche in other countries.
However, he would have known this well before going into the country, it's not like they created a new law just for him.
I doubt the US is so subtle as to use pirates. People seem to have these grand conspiracies about how the government is like a ninja...it's not.
They will simply send the police around and arrest him. Seriously, why are they going to bother with cloak and daggers for? This isn't a Bond movie. They will simply arrest him, and charge him with espionage charges since...err..that's sort of what he did?
Vladivostok, which is very close to Japan, and would be nearly impossible to not go through either South Korean or Japanese waters. Neither of which are friendly to him.
Sevastopol, Which requires going through the Turkey, and then either through the straights of Gibraltar or Egypt.
St Petersburg, Which requires passing through Denmark.
If I were in his shoes, I'd probably try to charter a Jet coming out of Vladivostok. If that wasn't possible, I think I'd choose the Sevastopol/Gibraltar route by sea.
http://thediplomat.com/2011/10/chinas-overhyped-submarine-threat/
>The Song-class vessel, displacing 2,200 tons, was close enough to hit the Kitty Hawk with one of its 18 homing torpedoes. None of the carrier’s roughly dozen escorting warships detected the Song until it breached the surface.
And:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqFVOL7mLd4#t=9m58sMy point was that if Snowden were to travel by plane then there is a high probability that it could be forced to be grounded and Snowden captured then sent to Gitmo.
But if he were to travel by submarine, he would be untouchable from the US Navy.
It's silly to think the US would get into a military engagement with Russia just to capture Snowden. At this point, he's not that valuable to either side, except as a propaganda tool. Hell, Putin would probably do a happy dance if the US were stupid enough to do something like that. The sabre rattling in the Ukraine has made him very popular - one can only imagine what a revived cold war rivalry would do for him; in the short term, at least.
Pretty much the best way to travel under the radar.
