The US guessed that Snowden was on that plane, and guessed wrong.

But it was a reasonable guess given that Snowden had been in Russia for a week and Evo Morales was talking about offering him asylum.

It's harder to guess right when Snowden could (in theory) board any plane leaving Moscow on any day this year or next, or the year after that.

The US is tracking him, so he has practically no chance on a normal passenger flight. His only chances are on flights with diplomatic immunity.

> The US is tracking him, so he has practically no chance on a normal passenger flight

Tracking his day-to-day movements, even if he should arrange to get to an airport in secret? Extraordinary. Do you have a link for that?

What I meant was the has a much broader choice of flights and even airports now. The odds seem to more in his favour now, should he wish to move.

Though actually, why would he? I don't see any advantage for Snowden from relocating to the same show, but in Venezuela or Argentina.

Why would tracking someones movements be an extraordinary achievement for CIA? And if he would travel under his own name, why should it be hard for them to know where and when did he booked a flight?

Both tasks should be business as usual for such huge secret service.

Given the incident linked above, it may not be as easy as it seems in movies.

I'm not saying it is easy and flawless, just that calling it "extraordinary" is in all likelihood an exaggeration. They do not need to know where exactly he is at every single moment to make travel too risky for him. Them not knowing where he was during that incident does not imply them not knowing where he is now. Neither it implies them not having an informer who would tip them if the Snowden tries to arrange secret fly.

CIA had a lot of time between them and now. It also have a lot of resources and his movements are likely to be top priority for them. Them knowing he boarded a plane is real risk for him.

> Why would tracking someones movements be an extraordinary achievement for CIA?

I do think that would be an achievement while he's under the wing of the Russian government. But what do I know?

What's really extraordinary is that gpvos knows for sure that it's not only doable but is actually happening; and is willing to share this intel with us. Or they seem to know; no citation to support the claim has been provided yet. It could just be internet BS.

I'm not so sure he's actually being protected in any real way by the Russian government, as you seem to claim. Although the FSB is probably keeping tabs on him too.

For the rest: what watwut said in a nearby comment. I'm just extrapolating from things like the Evo Morales incident.

Submarines have been used to smuggle people. Both Argentina and Russia got submarines. But is it worth of it? But would be simpler to just take any private boat ride to Argentina. You don't need to always fly.

He has a chance, but I think the US would know after a few days that he has left the country, and would just raid all boats on plausible routes. The US is not all-powerful, but still pretty powerful and white-hot with rage, and willing to risk diplomatic incidents over this.

Submarines would be too expensive. He's not worth that much to Russia, Argentina or any other country.

He's got three years to quietly pick a flight. A piece of cake compared to pull off, if the strategy is good.

To be honest I'm not sure why he would. South American countries tend to have volatile regimes and Russia is probably the best place for him to stay, even occupationally.

And I wouldn't put it past the CIA to perform an extraordinary rendition since he can be easily plucked from a cafe in Bolivia. Harder to do one from Russia.