So they eventually buy Uber for the brand and the installed user base and gradually replace live drivers with self driving cars conveniently parked around town waiting for instructions from the mother ship.

So if it is a Trojan horse like the gp poster suggests it will be built with blocks of cash for the founders and investors instead of wood and filled with war crazed Greek soldiers.

That would be an amazing plan, and I hope it happens that way. Given current timelines for the self-driving cars, it seems like that would be a major gamble considering the number of factors in play and the elements out of their control (which are mostly legal and social). Interesting possibility to consider.

That's what they're doing with Google Shopping Express. Eventually self-driving cars will be doing the deliveries.

What are the current timelines for self driving cars?

In 2012 Sergey said it would be about 5 years away. This gives another 3 years so doesn't sound unreasonable for some initial urban deployment.

It's probably a big part of why they invested in Uber in the first place.

Uber said they would purchase few self driving cars: http://techcrunch.com/2013/08/25/uberauto/

Great - just what the world needs.

Uninsured, automated gypsy cabs. No danger there.

I'll trust that over an inattentive or slow reacting human.

Having self-driving Uber cars would be pretty amazing and cheaper.

I'm not sure how much Uber will matter when self-driving cars are the norm. It's not like Google is the only player in that field.

What makes you think they would be cheaper?

Costs would at least be lower, which at least opens the possibility of it becoming cheaper. Sure, it's possible to conceive of a dystopic scenario where GooUber has such a monopoly that they can just keep prices arbitrarily high and disconnected from costs, but I think that's pretty unlikely.

It seems hard to say for sure that costs will be lower. The cost of a fully-autonomous/self-driving car is still unknown. Even if google is currently at the 90%, it's well-known that the last 10% is always the hardest. That last bit is especially important when you consider the consequences of imperfection in this venue.

He might be implying that the cost to rent a car, for 30 minutes, twice a day, would be cheaper than owning an, idle, car 24 hours a day.

Or, sharing the ride with three other commuters could bring the total cost of ownership to ~15 minutes per day.

I meant that the incremental cost of paying a human driver would be gone. The fixed cost of inventing and developing the self-driving technology would be minimal because it is amortized across all self-driving cars.

Fewer accidents drives down the insurance costs.

but the cost of the vehicle increases, which would have an unhappy effect on premiums.

All of that extra cost was R&D, which is currently being funded by Google's advertising. While I have no idea what Google's business model will eventually be with self-driving cars, at the end of the day it's just software and some cameras that can be mass-installed on most any car.

While the cost will initially be higher, it likely won't be much, and will eventually be negligible.

I'm not sure the sensors are negligable...

lower insurance. no salary.